08-09 BEST CASE/WORST CASE for WSU
by peaty411s on Nov 9, 2008 7:04 PM PST
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PrintAlright so Im going to look into how many wins the cougs can get this year. Lets go through the schedule, not exactly in chronological order:
First 4 Games are against No-name St. (4-0)
Then we get the Legends Classic, I think we split in one way or another. (5-1)
I say between Baylor and LSU we split (6-2)
Then, for realist's sake, chalk Gonzaga up as a loss (6-3)
The remaining non-conf. games of Idaho, Id. St, and Mon. St are W's (9-3)
The non-conf. record looks pretty fixed because we have 7 easy wins and basically 5 coin flip games. best case 11-1 absolutely worst case 7-5.
It would be hard, and pointless to project the pac 10 games individually. We had 11 wins last year, and 13 the year before. The pac-10 is down this year (us even more so, arguably). Best case scenario 12-6, worst case 7-11. Add on a win and a loss for the pac 10 tourney and lets add up the totals:
Best case: 24-8 (5 seed?)
Worst case: 15-17 (No CBI?)
Likely: I'll take the middle +1: 20-12 (10 seed?)
What do YOU think?
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About right
I think 20-11 would be a realistic expectation this season. The Pac-10 has lost a lot and we have reloaded nicely. One game I don’t think should be chalked up as a loss is the Gonzaga game. I know they return everyone from an average team last year. But they don’t return 3 important things. An inside presence, the ability to play defense and a good coach. We have all 3 of those. The game is also in our place and it should be packed. The only thing that hurts us is they usually peak in the first month of the season. We likely won’t peak until the final month. I like our chances against them and like our chances to go deeper in the tourney for the third year in a row. Don’t chalk this one up as a loss just yet.
It's a little bit of a mischaracterization to call Gonzaga a bad defensive team
Overall last year, they had the 33rd best defense last year in terms of adjusted efficiency. Now, that was built largely against weaker WCC opponents — they gave up some pretty awful offensive numbers to good offensive teams. However, the team will be a year older against a WSU team that is, as you point out, going to be inexperienced and far from its peak. I’m worried that Gonzaga will be able to exploit that youth, especially early on.
zags game
By no means do I, a Cougar fan chalk it up as a loss. I was just looking at it from a pure Vegas standpoint. Just trying to accuratly project the totals, and If you are going to give WSU the bennefit of the doubt on some games, you gotta give it to the opponent in other games. Looking back, I think the worst case is off. I would bet $200 we don’t have a losing record this year.
what I am worried about
is that there may be better competition in the Pac 10 than we are all thinking. I would tend to lean more towards the 7-11 worst case scenario in-conference you mentioned. Obviously I would like to see the frosh play a little more, and perhaps by December we’ll feel a lot more certain about our conference run. I am going to watch out for a “surprise team” a la us two years ago and ASU last year (Oregon, if their frosh are better than advertised?). It isn’t too hard to see us finishing 7th in the Pac 10, and no way are we going to get into the NCAA tourney this year with that finish unless we go undefeated in non-con.
All that said, I think we’ll get 19, maybe 20 wins. Who exactly we beat to get there will determine NCAA vs. NIT. Say we beat Gonzaga and Baylor, lose on the road to LSU and split the Legends games (win the 1st, lose to Pitt). Even if we drop one gimme game in the non-con, we’ll still be in good shape for the tourney assuming about a .500 run through the Pac 10. But if we drop to Gonzaga at home, maybe even to Baylor, and split the Legends (lose the 1st, beat Tech), any other losses are going to start looking bad and we’ll need some major scalps in the Pac 10. Getting to the same record in the first scenario would be about a 9 seed in the NCAA’s, whereas the second scenario is probably a 2 or 3 seed in the NIT, maybe a 1 if we’re lucky.
I don't believe in the existence of the St. Louis Rams. They're just an urban legend!
Surprise Pac-10 team
I could see Cal being that team. Good coach, underachieving talent the past few years. It also wouldn’t shock me if Oregon State bit some people with that Princeton offense.
And I think your analysis of what could get us into the tournament is spot on here.
Cal works for me
I guess I just thought all their glory hath departed (Hardin, Anderson). Looking at their roster, I only saw a couple names I recognized (Patrick Christopher, Jerome Randle) and also noticed that they have no seniors. But they do have good shooters and a good coach, maybe by the time Pac 10 play rolls around they’ll have gotten used to the new system and be ready to roll. We can only hope not!
Cheers for the compliment. I’m attending the opener tomorrow so hopefully I can get a good idea of what our frosh can do. Not that Mississippi Valley State is a tough challenge, but at least it’s a team we played last year so I have a point of comparison.
I don't believe in the existence of the St. Louis Rams. They're just an urban legend!
by johnnycougar on Nov 14, 2008 4:12 PM PST up reply actions
Patrick Christopher will be one of the big surprises of the conference
He could average close to 20 points this year. As for MVSU … all you need to know is that they’re playing ASU in Tempe tonight before getting on a plane and flying to Pullman. Or probably more accurately, to Spokane then a bus down to Pullman.
Can you imagine getting your brains beat in and then having to fly to the most remote outpost in the Pac-10 and play against a team making its season opener, playing a style of play that’s more like a root canal than anything else?
Yeah, tomorrow shouldn’t be too tough.
Maybe they were worn down by Arizona State
But facts cannot temper my enthusiasm!
7 in a row, baby!
by johnnycougar on Nov 17, 2008 9:35 AM PST up reply actions
Fella's, did it ever occur to you ...
That the Cougs could be this years surprise team? As far as the rest of the Pac is concerned, we had our run. Sure they’re not counting us out, but nobody is expecting a sustainable three year run. Maybe I’m seeing this through Crimson colored glasses, but if Capers and Casto are as athletic as advertised, and Thompson is a legitimate scoring threat, this team has all the tools to be right back where they were the past two seasons.
I love it. I think everyone else is going to look right past the Cougs and get smacked in the face as our boys roll on by.
Your "if's"
Capers and Casto are in fact as athletic as advertised from what I have seen so far, and Thompson just needs to work on his shot selection a bit. I guess I didn’t consider us as a “surprise team” because we were picked 6th and I think our ceiling is 3rd, so that wouldn’t be too much movement. Though everyone was saying preseason that we were NIT, so maybe a mid level seed in the NCAA’s would be a surprise.
7 in a row, baby!
by johnnycougar on Nov 18, 2008 3:42 PM PST up reply actions
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