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Why does the Pac-10 still support the BCS?

It's official. Oklahoma gets the nod to go to the Big XII title game and play Missouri for a shot at the national title game. The Sooners did this by way of a tiebreaker system, designed by the Big XII conference, that's only a half step above the Friday Night Lights coin flip.

Two things that should be learned from this:

1. The Big XII tiebreaker system is ridiculous
2. The BCS is ridiculous

Since we're a Pac-10 blog for a Pac-10 team, I'm not going to focus on #1. That's the Big XII's issue to deal with. What I am going to focus on is a BCS system that is broken, and the people in the conference who are still cheerleaders for the status quo.

What floors me is that at the dawn of another BCS controversy is how Pac-10 commissioner Tom Hansen can defend the system to its death. This despite the unbelievable number of times it has harmed this conference both in terms of money and noteriety.

First, with Oregon State's loss last night, we once again have a season where the Pac-10 sends only one team to the BCS. Among the six BCS conferences, here are the number of years each conference has sent the maximum of two teams into BCS bowl games.

SEC: (5) '98, '99, '01, '06, '07
Big XII: (4) '01, '03, '04, '07
Big Ten: (7) '98, '99, '02, '03, '05, '06, '07
Big East: (0)
Pac-10: (2) '00, '02
ACC: (0)

And now in terms of total team appearances by conference:

Big Ten - 17
SEC - 15
Big XII - 14
Pac-10 - 12
Big East - 10
ACC - 10
Independents (Notre Dame) - 3
WAC - 2
Mountain West - 1

Throughout this BCS madness, the two strongest supporters of the system have been the Big Ten and Pac-10 conferences. It's obvious why the Big Ten loves this system so much. Only three times since the creation of the BCS have there been less than two of their teams going to BCS games. And that's a lot of money earned. Meanwhile, the Pac-10 sits in fourth in terms of two-team years, above the Big East and ACC who have been limited to one team every single year (including this year, regardless of who their champions are).

The Pac-10 has had two years with two BCS teams: Washington and Oregon State in 2000, then USC and your Washington State Cougars in 2002. The Pac-10 is being shorted the money and national attention the BCS creates, and yet the conference leadership still defends it. And buddies up to the Big Ten, a conference making a staggering amount of money year-in and year-out.

What's worse, though, is how often Pac-10 teams have been left out of the BCS or national championship when they should have been in:

2000 - The 10-1 Washington Huskies beat the same 11-1 Miami team that beat 12-1 Florida State. FSU gets to play for the title, and loses to Oklahoma. Not the biggest controversy, as Washington lost to Oregon earlier in the year and Miami was ranked #2 in both polls. But still, an argument for UW can be made.

2001 - The year Oregon got absolutely hosed. The one-loss Ducks were behind both one-loss Nebraska and the team that obliterated them, two-loss Colorado. The Ducks made up for it by beating the dickens out of the Buffaloes in the Fiesta Bowl. But it wasn't enough to prevent the travesty that was the 2001 Rose Bowl, where Nebraska was promptly destroyed by Miami.

2003 - The BCS rules that an Oklahoma team that was blown out in the Big XII championship was a more worthy title contender than a USC team ranked #1 in both polls. Whoops. LSU takes care of Oregon, and USC goes on to split the national title.

2004 - Mack Brown lobbies for Texas to earn the final at-large BCS bid over California. Cal loses out because of a weakish 26-16 win over Southern Miss. However, the controversy dies down after Cal loses the Holiday Bowl to Texas Tech.

2008 - One-loss USC has almost no shot at a national championship game, despite having only one loss. Other one-loss teams include Texas, Oklahoma, Florida, Penn State and Texas Tech. Only #1 Alabama is undefeated. Currently, USC is ranked fifth in the BCS standings.

How can Tom Hansen and the Pac-10 conference leaders still defend this system? Hansen hides behind the University presidents and the "tradition" aspect of the Rose Bowl game. Still, this is more about money than it is about Hansen. The NCAA is afraid to take any sort of gamble that could cost them money. In all likelihood a playoff system would bring higher ratings and more publicity than the current BCS bowls, but I have to believe the NCAA just doesn't care about that. If it ain't broke, why fix it? And the current system isn't broke in terms of the cash it brings in. The thoughts of the fans, players, coaches and media just don't matter.

The other inherent flaw in the BCS is how its decided. Why not a selection committee a la the NCAA basketball tournament? The human polls are always flawed - with the coaches delegating their votes to someone with enough time to watch the games, and the Harris Poll made up of random voters from random places.

And then there's the computers. Computers aren't stupid; stupid people with computers are stupid. Case in point: how the BCS uses the Sagarin Rankings. Jeff Sagarin actually has three rankings. The PREDICTOR, where only scoring margin matters. ELO-CHESS, where only winning and losing matters (score doesn't matter). And the overall RATING, which is a synthesis of those previous two opposites. Sagarin actually says on his website that the ELO-CHESS is "less accurate in its predictions for upcoming games" than the PREDICTOR. Guess which one the BCS uses? The ELO-CHESS. Not the RATING, which is how Sagarin actually ranks teams, and not the PREDICTOR, which he just said was a better predictor of a team's future performance. So the weakest part of the Sagarin Rankins are used, along with about 72 other computer systems designed to confuse the average fan into submission. Go BCS.

Will the playoff system ever be a reality? Unlike Kirk Herbstreit, I think it will be. But it will take time. At least six years, and probably closer to a decade before any real actions are taken. Remember, these are the same people who couldn't approve a plus-one model last summer, despite the wishes of the SEC and other FBS conferences.

But the pressure is on. ESPN, despite holding the new BCS contract, has been far from a cheerleader of the system (or at least its on-air personalities aren't). President-elect Barack Obama is openly in favor of a playoff system. Most fans are in favor of it, and high-profile coaches like Paterno, Carroll, Stoops, Brown and others have been grumbling about the BCS either this season or earlier. There is a chance to get something done, but the Pac-10 has to stop submitting to the will of the Bowl lobby and think for themselves. And when they consider the evidence, they will find that there's no reason for the conference to be in favor of the current system.

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BCS

What happens if Oklahoma loses to Mizzou? Doesn’t that bump UT back into the title game assuming UT moves into the no. 2 slot in the BCS?

by ptowncoug3012 on Dec 1, 2008 9:27 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yep

That would mean another Big XII team, that failed to win its conference, will get selected over a Pac-10 conference champion.

It will be Alabama/Florida versus Texas/Oklahoma, based on the results of the conference championship games.

Also, Penn State has a legitimate beef. Their only loss was by a field goal as time expired to a decent, if not great, Iowa team.

by Grady. on Dec 1, 2008 9:56 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

PennSt may have a beef...

but they would get destroyed by any of the aforementioned teams with the POSSIBLE exception of Alabama. The Big Ten (11) is a fraud conference, and right now the ACC and Big East are jokes. Does anyone remember the year Utah went undefeated any got matched up with an 8-3 Pittsburg team ranked in the twenties? Look for similar results this year. The BCS, much like Big Tobacco and the Petroleum industry, is a problem that won’t go away because there is too much money invested in it.

by jj_fekl on Dec 1, 2008 12:49 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Speaking of the Big 11

Get ready to watch Boise State get bounced out in favor of a 2-loss Ohio State team that I’m pretty sure would lose to TCU.

by Grady. on Dec 1, 2008 3:54 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree with the Big XII tiebreaker

I know it’s not a popular opinion, but consider: Does it not benefit a conference to do everything it can to get a team into the national title game? Not only is the monetary payout greater for the championship game, but it generally virtually guarantees a conference will get a second team into the BCS (Pac-10 notwithstanding).

Does it then not make sense to make sure its highest rated BCS team plays in the conference championship, thereby giving it the best chance to get into the title game? I know it might not seem fair, but what in this system is about “fair”? Nothing. It’s about money. And if it’s about money, the Big XII has the BEST tiebreaker, not the worst.

by Nuss on Dec 1, 2008 10:25 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes, but....

If you used something more concrete, like score differential between the top 3 teams, you have a clearer way of finding the champion. One that doesn’t rely on a mishmash of polls and computers. And who the heck are the two coaches that voted Oklahoma #1? That’s absurd.

And by the way, if you did that, Oklahoma would still go through, because of the Tex Tech blowout.

by Grady. on Dec 1, 2008 12:10 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

But that's the reason for the policy

To do everything within the conference’s power to ensure that a team gets into the BCS championship. What if score differential put Texas Tech in the championship, and another team passed Oklahoma and Texas on that final weekend because it played a tough opponent in its conference championship that vaulted it in the eyes of the computer? I know it wouldn’t happen this year, but it could happen in another year. That’s why I think the Big XII policy is a good thing — it gives the conference the best chance to get a team into the championship.

by Nuss on Dec 1, 2008 2:49 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Has anybody watched "The Top Five Reasons Why You Can't Blame: The BCS"?

Very interesting. It puts things into perspective. The show is on ESPN Classic.

by cfred on Dec 1, 2008 11:28 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I saw that

And it was pretty darn good. The one thing you can say about the BCS is that at least 70-80% of the time it avoids a split national championship.

But it wasn’t enough to convince me that a playoff system isn’t better. The BCS was well intentioned, but flawed from the start. And while you can’t blame the BCS for Texas’ situation, you can blame it for costing the Pac-10 in various ways since its inception.

by Grady. on Dec 1, 2008 12:07 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And that is exactly why the Pac-10 needs to put it's big boy pants on ...

absorb two teams and have a conference championship game. Boise State and Fresno State gives you a Pac-North and a Pac South. More money for the conference and another big game on someones schedule to increase BCS ranking power.

But hey, all Texas had to do was not lose at the very end to Tech and none of this would be an issue. Every game counts. If USC hadn’t crapped their pants against the Beav’s, then none of this would really be an issue either, would it? Win out and go to the Championship, provided you don’t beat high school teams all season like Boise State.

by Jo-Jo on Dec 1, 2008 4:10 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You could also add 10-1, 2005 Oregon team to the BCS snubs in a similar fashion of 2004 Cal team. They were a one loss team that had a 9-2 OSU and 9-2 Notre Dame beat them out because it was a sexier, star studded match up. Only if the game was as exciting.

It's spelled "S-h-u-n-b-o-w-l"

by JShufelt on Dec 1, 2008 10:36 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

TBQH

I want the BCS tinkered with, but I absolutely despise the idea of a playoff and get really excited when I hear my favorite conference taking my side.

by philkid3 on Dec 2, 2008 9:20 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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