Pomeroy Scouting Reports UPDATED
Ken Pomeroy has put up his new scouting reports. His formulae predict Wazzu to go 21-9 in the regular season, including winning our next 9 games! I would certainly take that. We're currently rated 2nd in the Pac 10. So in all our doom and gloom about missing out on key non-con wins, at least statistically we are in a good position in-conference.
about 1 year ago
johnnycougar
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I noticed that yesterday
I think the most interesting thing is that of the next nine games we’re “going” to win — which includes USC and UCLA — the closest statistically is LSU.
by Jeff Nusser on Dec 16, 2008 3:32 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
He's also finally got player stats up and running
You can check those out here.
by Jeff Nusser on Dec 16, 2008 3:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Its nice to see but
Some of those predictions are off. 77 and 78 percent chance of beating AZ and USC at home? 63% chance of beating UCLA at home?
I know it is a projection, but it says we will not allow more than 60 points to anyone this year? I would send this guy a check for $500 if that happens.
by peaty411s on Dec 16, 2008 7:41 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Just remember, they're predictions based off statistical analysis
The sample size is still relatively small. Although, I’ll say that I looked at those predictions about this time last year, thought he was way off, and he ended up being pretty spot on in terms of the overall picture of how the team would do.
by Jeff Nusser on Dec 16, 2008 7:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I go back and forth
On the one hand, we don’t look like we did last year on offense, on the other hand, all of our losses are to ranked teams, including two top 5 teams. But then again, when we lost to good teams last year we played them close (except NC).
The next 7 games are crucial. We need another decent Non-conf. win. Then, our first 5 pac-10 games are favorable, with UW, CAL STAN. at home then OSU and OR on the road. If we can go 6-1 there, All the sudden we are 13-4 bringing in the LA schools for a huge home series.
by peaty411s on Dec 16, 2008 7:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He's got the Cougs losing to Washington to end the year,
That pisses me off.
by Jo-Jo on Dec 17, 2008 7:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
#2 in the conference at 12-6?
I could most definitely deal. That’s probably a 4 seed again, even in a down year for the Pac-10, yes?
by philkid3 on Dec 16, 2008 11:41 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Sweet! I made the front page!
I doubt that Pomeroy uses subjectivity in his predictions, owing to the large number of teams, but to me that projected record makes sense only if our freshmen make a lot of progress between now and the end of the year.
I like that we win all our remaining home games!
Also, in general, I think we are given a good record here because the Pac 10 as a whole is down. I guess from a completely objective standpoint, we are doing about as good as anyone in the conference right now. I read somewhere that Arizona is the only Pac 10 team with a win over anyone in the Top 25. Maybe in that light our not-so-close losses to Gonzaga and Pitt don’t look so bad, and our near-miss against Baylor isn’t so crushing as it first appeared.
7 in a row, baby!
by johnnycougar on Dec 17, 2008 10:46 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
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