One way to Harm the opposition
by Grady Clapp on Dec 29, 2008 9:30 PM PST
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As of this moment, the Cougs are closing in on their lowest three-point percentage of the decade. They're only 0.23% ahead of Paul Graham's 2001-02 squad. That's the same Paul Graham that went 9-63 in the Pac-10. The percentage is also sitting dangerously close to Dick Bennett's 3-year rebuilding project.
Now, the question of the night becomes: it is us, or is it the defenses we've played? Sadly, I don't think it's the other guys. We've played several 2-3 zones, most of which aren't nearly as good as Gonzaga's has been (or should I say had been?). Those teams sacrificed the perimeter in favor of keeping Baynes in check. Even the man-to-man teams have gone out of their way to double Aron instead of closing out on our perimeter shooters. There have been some exceptions, but for the most part our opponents have been focusing on Baynes, and to a lesser extent Thompson. Rarely anyone else.
Meanwhile, shots have just been clanking off the rim. I've been on the Abe Lodwick bandwagon for quite some time, but he's been 1 for 16 this year after draining all 3 threes he took in the preseason game. That won't last. Taylor Rochestie's shooting a career low 31.1%. That might last, unless the rest of the offense starts giving him the confidence to pass it as opposed to shooting it. When you look at the Cougs' eight man rotation, only four guys should even be attempting threes - Rochestie, Thompson, Koprivica and Harmeling.
Which brings me to my recommendation: get Daven Harmeling more attempts. He's shooting a 43.5% clip from the arc, and probably won't regress to the mean like Koprivica has (35.3%). Furthermore - and this is more important - his eFG% of 61.5% is second among Cougar regulars, only trailing Aron Baynes at 63.5%. That's almost entirely a result of his excellent three-point percentage.
Daven is a team player and will pass up the open three for a dish to a teammate. That's unselfish play, but he needs to tone it down a little. Harmeling attempted zero shots against LSU. That's due in part to Koprivica coming off the bench and getting more playing time; but it's also due to the fact we haven't been agressive enough in finding Daven open shots.
Daven Harmeling should be this year's Derrick Low. The perimeter version of Derrick, anyway. Find him off screens, have him catch and shoot, and find ways for him to get open when the defense collapses on Baynes. And if Daven connects and other teams start focusing on trying to shut him down, great. Other guys will start to be open.
As for Daven - shoot the ball. Good things will happen.
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Nik's three point shooting...
I yell “no!!!” every time Nik shoots the 3 ball. He has surprised me about 1/3 of the time by actually making it. I still don’t want him to shoot that shot. I hope he proves me wrong.
by westsidecougar1 on Dec 30, 2008 10:58 AM PST reply actions
He's better than last year, for sure
I still think an optimistic percentage for him is between 35-40%. Not as good as Daven, but good enough to where I’m OK with him taking the occasional open three.
His best work came in the early games against some of the little schools – since then he’s cooled off somewhat. And that doesn’t help us.
Daven has minutes
We need to get him some shots. He was invisible on offense at LSU. He eats teams up with the kickout 3. Nik can drive but he cannot dish. Klay goes to the hoop and still working on the kick out. Aron has always had such good position he finishes and does not need the kick out. Taylor does finish and dish, but seemed to finish everytime vs. LSU. So, what do we have? Not sure, but we sure need to find a way to feed Daven. He is too good of a shot to not take any when he plays, whether it is 5 minutes or 23 minutes…
didn't realize
He actually played 1 more minute than Baynes, thanks to fouls (according to ESPN). Guess it just seemed like he was never really in the game.
Re: Daven's minutes
That’s the thing when you don’t shoot – it seems like you’re not even on the floor. I think Daven played 23 minutes against LSU, which seems a little low.
If Harmeling can just establish himself as a consistent three point threat, defenses will have to account for him. That would be huge for Taylor and Klay, who’d benefit immensely from a decrease in pressure.
It's not as simple as just taking more shots
Forget for a second about the fact that Harmeling took no shots and ask yourself this question: How many times did he actually even touch the ball?
And therein lies the problem — Harmeling can’t get open by himself. Trent Johnson, being a guy who coached in the Pac-10 the last four years, just put Garrett Temple on him, told Temple never to leave him, and POOF! no Harmeling in the offense. Now, we could call for some screens and such, but I’m pretty sure Harmeling doesn’t have the foot speed to do what Low did the last two years, running through four different screens for 10 seconds to get an open look. We also could call for some more pick-and-pop type looks, but that only works if the guy with the ball in his hands is a legitimate threat to score. We all know that’s not the case.
Personally, I think for Harmeling to be a legitimate threat in this offense, some other things that have nothing to do with him have to start going right. He feeds off defensive breakdowns, and right now, there just aren’t very many of those.
I agree, sort of
I don’t see any reason why Harmeling can’t get open, especially at the PF position where he should be facing slower defenders. Although with Forrest seeing more time at PF that could change.
Still – Derrick Low wasn’t exactly an expert at creating his own shot, and when teams have adjusted to Harmeling’s shot he can still have success. Last year’s road game at USC is a good example of that.
It's not that Low created his own shot
Compairing Harmeling to Low is rediculous. It’s like saying that a DE and a FS are similar because they can both tackle.
It’s that Low was able to move without the ball to get open and then recieve a pass, catch and shoot. Harmeling is not even close to that kind of player. Harmeling is like Robert Horry. That dude dropped three’s on everyone his whole career and it was never about coming off a screen. It was either pick-n-pop, or inside-out. None of this is happening and I’m frustrated that TB hasn’t found a way to get him shots. This is why Rochestie sucks so bad. The personnel on this team needs him to create for others and he just absolutely refuses to do so.
My thoughts...
Koprivica needs to stop shooting, stop dribbling, stop passing. He is good defensive player but is offensive skills are bad in my opinion. He missed a wide open layin that could have extended the our lead over LSU to 9 and then turned the ball over in traffic in crunch time. He actually made one three that was astonishing.
I think our 3 percentage will improve but it will not be enough to get us over the hump. I wil still enjoy watching and rooting for them as they will get better. I hope to see Casto get more minutes and be more of a presence inside. I thought his game was a little more polished than it is.
Also... Do these guys realize they moved the 3 line back????
The thing that got me yelling at the TV at least a half dozen times against LSU is that they were taking shots with one foot on the line. Might have only meant a 3 point difference, but until the last 4 minutes, it looked as though those 3 points might make THE difference.
And why, oh why, can’t anyone on this team be aggressive and draw fouls? I thought Nik might be able to help us out with this, but I think they took his handle when they fixed his knee.
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