Nikola Koprivica, regression to the mean?

by Jeff Nusser on Dec 3, 2008 12:28 PM PST

Nikola Koprivica, 3-point shooting:

	3PM	3PA	Pct.
First two games	4	7	57.1%
Last five games	4	12	33.3%

Discuss.

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Comments

8/19 aint that bad…

by J.J. FeKl on Dec 3, 2008 3:47 PM PST reply actions

Settle down Nuss,

nobody expected him to shoot 57% for the season.

by Jo-Jo on Dec 3, 2008 3:55 PM PST reply actions

Hey, I'm not saying what he's doing is bad on the whole

I’m just pointing out that a lot of people were very, very excited about his shooting early, and he’s cooled just a bit. He’s still shooting 42 percent overall, which is excellent. I’m just wondering what people are thinking about him as a reliable long-range scoring threat.

CougCenter

by Jeff Nusser on Dec 3, 2008 4:06 PM PST up reply actions

I know man, I just like to give you a hard time.

I tell you what though, I’ve broken down film on the five starters from that ISU game, and Nik and Daven play an absolutely huge role for this team. Like you said friday night durring the MSU game “Harm has just disappears,” but he does so much that doesn’t show up in the box score. Those 2 guys understand the Bennett system to a degree of perfection in detail.

They play a very similar role in the 1-in, 4-out offense that Bennett ran ALL GAME LONG! The game truly does have to come to them. While they will look to Thompson and Baynes for offense, and Rochestie needs to penetrate, those 2 have to let the game come to them. And if they can get 1 outa 3 that will be huge. Especially against the zone.

by Jo-Jo on Dec 4, 2008 7:15 AM PST up reply actions

Correction

TB only ran the 1-in, 4-out when Harmeling and Baynes played the 4 and 5 respectively. So, the starting unit.

by Jo-Jo on Dec 4, 2008 10:33 AM PST up reply actions

I'd take 33% from Nik

That would be enough to keep his defender honest and all Nik to get to the basket. Besides, Nuss will tell you that 33% from three is the same as 49.5% from two. This is why I hoist a three whenever I have a good look at one in my rec league games. Yes my teammates glare at me a lot, why do you ask?

by Craig Powers on Dec 3, 2008 5:28 PM PST reply actions

Me too

I think it’s the slow, fat, white guy in me.

CougCenter

by Jeff Nusser on Dec 3, 2008 7:23 PM PST up reply actions

Yes

And 8/19 is a pretty good mean.

Sport Grammar School.

by Grady Clapp on Dec 3, 2008 6:24 PM PST reply actions

40% should be a minimum expectation for a 3-point "shooter."

by I Remember Richie Zisk on Dec 3, 2008 8:56 PM PST up reply actions

So by that rationale,

you’d consider Derrick Low a failure his entire college career?

by Jo-Jo on Dec 4, 2008 7:01 AM PST up reply actions

I'd say it's more like 38.5 percent

Just a tick under 40 percent to be a real contributor form out there. Although this guy argued that in the NBA, the minimum efficiency you can shoot without hurting your team is 31.5 percent. So I guess it kind of depends on what you’re arguing — minimum you need to shoot to contribute, or what you ought to be able to shoot to take those shots with regularity?

CougCenter

by Jeff Nusser on Dec 4, 2008 10:01 AM PST up reply actions

I think "this guy" makes a good point about the assist ratio

I don’t want to see Nik running around pulling up three’s off of the dribble, but as I stated above, when it comes to him, if he can hit in the mid 30’s or better, that’s good for the team.

by Jo-Jo on Dec 4, 2008 10:29 AM PST up reply actions

I think it will be good for the team if does shoot in the mid-30s

if only because it will force defenders to close out on him before he blows by them to the rim.

CougCenter

by Jeff Nusser on Dec 4, 2008 11:28 AM PST up reply actions

I never really considered Low a "shooter."

Low’s game was much more active than a straight shooter. This year someone needs to be that guy running to his spots, receiving the pass, and popping the trey.

by I Remember Richie Zisk on Dec 4, 2008 9:50 PM PST up reply actions

Problem is

the Cougs don’t have a guy with the footspeed and spot up ability to run off screens the way Low used to. Maybe Abe Lodwick, but he hasn’t shown the ability to hit a shot consistently. Harthun might be that guy eventually, but he’s not there yet.

Oh, and Low led the Pac-10 in 3-point attempts last year — six more than even Tajuan Porter who was second, and 39 more than Ryan Appleby, who was sixth. Low was tied for 44th nationally.

CougCenter

by Jeff Nusser on Dec 5, 2008 7:51 AM PST up reply actions

Hmm,

I guess we just have differing terminology/expectations. What you just described is pretty much my view of a “shooter.”

I would consider guys in the 40%’s to be “Elite Shooters.” And I deffinately considered Derrick Low a “shooter.”

by Jo-Jo on Dec 5, 2008 9:41 AM PST up reply actions

Don't look at the stats

This is one area why stats can be deceiving. His shot is actually much better this year. (Ok that’s why we see a corresponding increase in %, duh). However, in the last few games, we have seen his % drop but his shot is still coming out much better. Sometimes the rock doesn’t fall, but I expect improved numbers with his better looking release.

by ptowncoug3012 on Dec 3, 2008 10:13 PM PST reply actions