Nikola Koprivica, regression to the mean?
Nikola Koprivica, 3-point shooting:
| 3PM | 3PA | Pct. | |
| First two games | 4 | 7 | 57.1% |
| Last five games | 4 | 12 | 33.3% |
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17 comments
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Settle down Nuss,
nobody expected him to shoot 57% for the season.
by Jo-Jo on
Dec 3, 2008 3:55 PM PST
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Hey, I'm not saying what he's doing is bad on the whole
I’m just pointing out that a lot of people were very, very excited about his shooting early, and he’s cooled just a bit. He’s still shooting 42 percent overall, which is excellent. I’m just wondering what people are thinking about him as a reliable long-range scoring threat.
by Nuss on
Dec 3, 2008 4:06 PM PST
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I know man, I just like to give you a hard time.
I tell you what though, I’ve broken down film on the five starters from that ISU game, and Nik and Daven play an absolutely huge role for this team. Like you said friday night durring the MSU game “Harm has just disappears,” but he does so much that doesn’t show up in the box score. Those 2 guys understand the Bennett system to a degree of perfection in detail.
They play a very similar role in the 1-in, 4-out offense that Bennett ran ALL GAME LONG! The game truly does have to come to them. While they will look to Thompson and Baynes for offense, and Rochestie needs to penetrate, those 2 have to let the game come to them. And if they can get 1 outa 3 that will be huge. Especially against the zone.
by Jo-Jo on
Dec 4, 2008 7:15 AM PST
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Correction
TB only ran the 1-in, 4-out when Harmeling and Baynes played the 4 and 5 respectively. So, the starting unit.
by Jo-Jo on
Dec 4, 2008 10:33 AM PST
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I'd take 33% from Nik
That would be enough to keep his defender honest and all Nik to get to the basket. Besides, Nuss will tell you that 33% from three is the same as 49.5% from two. This is why I hoist a three whenever I have a good look at one in my rec league games. Yes my teammates glare at me a lot, why do you ask?
by Dancing Football on
Dec 3, 2008 5:28 PM PST
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Yes
And 8/19 is a pretty good mean.
Sport Grammar School.
by Grady. on
Dec 3, 2008 6:24 PM PST
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40% should be a minimum expectation for a 3-point "shooter."
by I Remember Richie Zisk on
Dec 3, 2008 8:56 PM PST
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So by that rationale,
you’d consider Derrick Low a failure his entire college career?
by Jo-Jo on
Dec 4, 2008 7:01 AM PST
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I'd say it's more like 38.5 percent
Just a tick under 40 percent to be a real contributor form out there. Although this guy argued that in the NBA, the minimum efficiency you can shoot without hurting your team is 31.5 percent. So I guess it kind of depends on what you’re arguing — minimum you need to shoot to contribute, or what you ought to be able to shoot to take those shots with regularity?
by Nuss on
Dec 4, 2008 10:01 AM PST
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I think "this guy" makes a good point about the assist ratio
I don’t want to see Nik running around pulling up three’s off of the dribble, but as I stated above, when it comes to him, if he can hit in the mid 30’s or better, that’s good for the team.
by Jo-Jo on
Dec 4, 2008 10:29 AM PST
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I think it will be good for the team if does shoot in the mid-30s
if only because it will force defenders to close out on him before he blows by them to the rim.
by Nuss on
Dec 4, 2008 11:28 AM PST
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I never really considered Low a "shooter."
Low’s game was much more active than a straight shooter. This year someone needs to be that guy running to his spots, receiving the pass, and popping the trey.
by I Remember Richie Zisk on
Dec 4, 2008 9:50 PM PST
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Problem is
the Cougs don’t have a guy with the footspeed and spot up ability to run off screens the way Low used to. Maybe Abe Lodwick, but he hasn’t shown the ability to hit a shot consistently. Harthun might be that guy eventually, but he’s not there yet.
Oh, and Low led the Pac-10 in 3-point attempts last year — six more than even Tajuan Porter who was second, and 39 more than Ryan Appleby, who was sixth. Low was tied for 44th nationally.
by Nuss on
Dec 5, 2008 7:51 AM PST
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Don't look at the stats
This is one area why stats can be deceiving. His shot is actually much better this year. (Ok that’s why we see a corresponding increase in %, duh). However, in the last few games, we have seen his % drop but his shot is still coming out much better. Sometimes the rock doesn’t fall, but I expect improved numbers with his better looking release.
by ptowncoug3012 on
Dec 3, 2008 10:13 PM PST
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