Gary Rogers is screwed

by Jeff Nusser on Sep 16, 2008 3:27 PM PDT in Cougar Football Comment 5 comments

As I was listening to Paul Wulff's radio show last week, something struck me as incredibly interesting. He mentioned that the Cougs had a pair of JC transfers who could each help the team right now -- probably as starters -- but that the coaches were electing to redshirt both in order to maximize future performance out of the two.

(I can't remember who they both were, but I do remember that one was defensive lineman Bernard Wolfgramm.)

I mention this not to start a conversation on the team's JC philosophy, but to provide some perspective on the quarterback situation, where it looks like Gary Rogers' chance to be the quarterback we all hoped he would be has vanished, as coach Paul Wulff wants to start Kevin Lopina again, bad wrist and all.

Now, Wulff is saying the politically correct things, noting that Rogers probably will play on Saturday against Portland State, and that he won't "rule out" Rogers playing a lot. But the proof is in the pudding, and every message Wulff sends indicates Lopina is his guy going forward and, barring some kind of injury or catastrophic play by Lopina, you've probably seen the last of Rogers playing meaningful football for the Cougars.

First, Wulff said much the same thing about Rogers' playing time heading into the game against Baylor, but he took the field only after, A) Lopina got a long, long look and showed an ability to move the offense, turnovers notwithstanding; and B) The game was way out of hand.

Additionally, Wulff said Lopina will get the majority of the reps with the first team in practice this week "if (he) is healthy." That doesn't exactly scream, "open quarterback competition."

Lastly, and perhaps most damning, is that Portland State gives whomever is starting the best possible chance to have some success going forward. If this team was invested in Rogers for the rest of the season, he absolutely would be starting this game. But he's not, and that says everything you need to know.

Is it fair? Probably not. But I think Wulff is absolutely making the right decision.

Of course, we know Rogers' story all too well: Career backup who waited patiently while Alex Brink set all kinds of records, even as the fans consistently called for the tall, rocket-armed gunslinger to see the field. He finally gets his chance in this, his fifth and final year, but after just six quarters of undistinguished play ... poof! Back to the bench.

And while some might argue that six quarters just isn't enough time to evaluate a quarterback, I would argue that Rogers has had every opportunity to be successful. He was installed as the No. 1 quarterback from the moment last season ended. He went through the entire offseason and all of training camp as the starter, practicing everyday with the No. 1 offense. He started the season as the top quarterback, even as the whispers grew louder that Lopina had been outplaying Rogers in practice.

Rogers got plenty of chances, ostensibly with a playbook designed to take advantage of his strengths, and he responded by becoming easily the worst statistical quarterback in the Pac-10. When you're a fifth-year player -- especially a quarterback -- and you're on a bad team trying to build for the future, you'd better be appreciably better than anyone else on the roster. And that just simply hasn't been the case.

However, to make this all about the future is misleading. Lopina also is the best choice to help this team get going right now. I suspect that for Gary Rogers to be successful, he needs weapons and an offensive line that can protect him. He hasn't had those things at his disposal, which isn't his fault. And maybe that's why Grady argues for giving Rogers more time, because those things are only going to get better as players get healthy. But with where this team is at right now, having a guy who can move around, who can hit some short routes without throwing the ball 98 mph, and who can carry the ball occasionally makes the most sense.

It's a bummer for Rogers, a guy I genuinely feel for. Could things have been different for him without a change in coaching staffs? Perhaps -- it certainly couldn't have hurt him to be running an offense he'd been studying for four years, especially considering how lost he looks in terms of progressions.

But I think it's about time that we as Cougar fans finally entertain the idea that maybe -- just maybe -- Rogers' inability to pass Brink on the depth chart had nothing to do with some sort of irrational man crush on the part of Timm Rosenbach and everything to do with Rogers' ability to be an effective Pac-10 quarterback. If Rogers was everything we had built him up to be over the past three-plus years, he'd certainly be completing more than 50 percent of his passes, no matter what offense his team was running.

I hope I'm wrong. I hope that if he gets his shot at some point this year, he shows that he can, in fact, be a big time Pac-10 quarterback. But I'm beginning to come to grips with the fact that it's probably just not a realistic expecation.

Hello, Kevin Lopina. Please lead us to some victories.

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My semi-counterpoint

It’s all about sample size; If Wulff is correct about the QB job being decided in games, then he really should give Rogers more than 6 quarters of action. Remember when everyone was freaking out about David Ortiz’s slow start this year? Small sample size. You can’t make any definitive decision about a QB on such a small number of throws.

Of course the revelation now is that Wulff probably had his eye on Lopina from the start of the season. He figured he’d give Rogers the start of the season to try to impress him. And if he didn’t, in goes Lopina. Which actually isn’t a terrible way of doing things. Give your senior the chance to earn the job on the field, and if not, give it to the guy you think may be better for the future.

What surprises me is that Wulff was clearly behind Rogers as starting QB after both spring and fall practice. Now we know that the leash wasn’t as long as we originally thought.

And it’s laser-rocket arm. Laser.

by Grady. on Sep 16, 2008 10:46 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I understand the small sample size argument

But, I’d disagree that we’re dealing with a small sample size here. Like I said, spring practice, training camp, first game and a half, all as the clear No. 1 without a hint of a QB controversy … that’s a pretty long leash, if you ask me. If the coaching staff didn’t see what it wanted to see after that — especially in terms of improvement and growth — then the change has to be made.

Oh, and football is, by nature, a small sample size sport — with only 13 games, there’s no time to ride out a cold streak like there is in baseball …

CougCenter

by Jeff Nusser on Sep 16, 2008 11:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good points all

To semi-argree with Nuss, I don’t think it’s necessarily a small sample size, even considering it’s only been 6 quarters. I can only assume when Wulff watched the (painful) game film, he must have seen Rogers not only being ineffective (the general, catch-all term) but specifically missing reads and failing to audible succesfully. On any given play, the QB has to do at least four different things: read the defense, decide if the play will work & audible if necessary, start the play & go through his motion, and then read the defense and make the correct pass (or hand the ball off). Most of that is mental, and while the laser rocket arm (laser!) is useful, it looks like Rogers’ decision making was just not up to par.

That being said, I’m not convinced Lopina is really better. Those dead duck passes were ugly to watch, but at least he can run / scramble a bit. Unfortunately, the way our O-line has been playing means scrambling is a necessary ability. I feel bad for Rogers since he’s sort of been put into a bad situation, and he clearly cares about the team (like when he runs upfield on an option play to throw a block on a safety!). He just doesn’t have time to sit in the pocket and pick apart a defense, and he doesn’t seem to throw well on bootlegs or rollouts. Or throw the ball away. Ugh.

Either way, I think Not Turning the Ball Over is sufficient for beating Portland State, and Lopina will probably be a better option since he will at least have some instincts to run with the ball rather than force a pass into coverage.

by johnnycougar on Sep 17, 2008 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Writing on the wall comment from Wulff?

Wulff always was clear that Roger’s was the starter coming out of the spring and fall camps. However, he made some comments that seemed to step away from a true committment to Roger’s. Here’s one comment from media day.

On QB Gary Rogers: “In our quarterback situation we have two players that are talented kids, but neither have a lot of game experience. Gary, because of his history at WSU, is our clear cut number one, but that doesn’t mean that a number two or anyone else can’t catch up. Ultimately, my job is to have the kids out there who can help our team and if that means playing one or playing multiple, we will do what works.”

That wasn’t exactly the quote I was looking for but close enough. I think Wulff probably did have a short leash on Roger’s. While they were clear “Gary is our guy”, other comments didn’t exactly paint a picture that they had complete faith he could pull it off. I think Roger’s was given his shot and for whatever reason he doesn’t have the abilities outside of a nice arm and physical stature to pull it off. I would have loved if he was given a shot over the last 4 years to gain some experience. Now they face a long road and so far Lopina has shown his is better able to get the team up and down the field and he has more eligibility.

That’s where we are right now. Nothing is going to be easy over the next couple of years. The schedule has actually ends up helping Lopina. Roger’s gets game 1 and 2 with only 1 experienced receiver, a line in flux, and a new system. Lopina gets Baylor to get his feet wet and a nice landing at home against PSU. Rogers had his chance but at the same time he wasn’t exactly in the greatest position to succeed.

I hope he can get some time but Lopina is their only shot next season unless they find a jc qb some place that understand the system.

by BornCoug on Sep 19, 2008 12:52 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs