Digging deeper into that second half offense
Jo-Jo wrote a great post below detailing some of the adjustments the Cougars made at halftime against Stanford, so I decided to look inside the numbers of each half to see what we else we can glean about that second half offensive performance.
Here are the four factors for the game, split by half. (Click on the link for each half to view the full box score. Special thanks to WSU SID Jessica Schmick for working them up for us!)
| FIRST HALF | 29 Poss. |
SECOND HALF | 32 poss. |
|||||
| OFF | DEF | OFF | DEF | |||||
| Efficiency | 75.5 | 103.0 | Efficiency | 102.4 | 74.5 | |||
| eFG% | 25.0% | 45.8% | eFG% | 50.0% | 36.4% | |||
| OR% | 12.5% | 28.6% | OR% | 18.8% | 15.8% | |||
| TO% | 13.7% | 13.7% | TO% | 12.4% | 18.6% | |||
| FTR | 60.0% | 45.8% | FTR | 26.9% | 59.1% | |||
The first thing I notice -- and I'm sure it's the first thing Tony Bennett pointed out, lest the team get too carried away with what won them that game -- is that despite the offensive improvement on which we're about to continue to fixate, it really was the defense that allowed the Cougs to even have a shot at coming back in that game. That was Cougar lockdown defense at its finest. In fact, do you realize the Cardinal had just three offensive rebounds in the second half? And that two of them came on that one possession there at the end that we were sure was going to do us in? That ought to tell you how complete the defensive domination was.
That's important to remember, because despite the improved offense, the Cougars needed every bit of that defense -- right down the last DeAngelo Casto block -- to keep us from 0-3 and the pit of despair. And we'll likely continue to need that defense, even if what we saw on Saturday continues going forward.
Beyond the fact that defense truly is our identity, the 102.4 offensive efficiency in the second half is hardly world beating. That's just a tick above the national average of 100.2, and stil way, WAY off the pace of last season's 111.5. But it's no surprise we're all so excited about what we saw in the second half. After all, the offense has been so positively putrid against quality competition, it ends up looking amazing by comparison to what we've previously seen. It was kind of like dating this girl for two months and then having this girl suddenly show up at the bar and offer to take you home. You can't help but get a little ... um ... excited about that.
The good news is this: If we can somehow keep performing around that 102 level -- a great assumption, I know, considering it's just one half of basketball -- we stand a good chance of winning a good number of games the rest of the season.
How good is 102? While not elite, a 102 efficiency would have been good enough to win 10 out of 18 games the Cougars played in the Pac-10 last year. How good might it be this year? Well, the Cougs' defense is pretty much as good this year as it was last year, so that gives us a baseline for comparison. The offenses appear to be a tick down in the Pac-10 this year, with an average adjusted offensive efficiency of 110.6, compared to 113.4 last year, suggesting that 102 ought to be at least as effective at winning games this year as it was last year.
Now, again it's only one half of one game, but I think we all can agree that what we saw on Saturday is a lot closer to this team's true talent than what we'd seen up until that point.
So what caused Saturday's outburst? Well, Jo-Jo's observation that the team was looking for more opportunities to push the pace is more than just anecdotal: The pace was 32 in the second half, compared to 29 in the first half. That might not seem like much, but that first half pace is right on schedule for the team's season average of 58, while the second half pace would put the Cougs at 64 over the course of a game. That's a pretty darn significant change.
The funny thing is that I can't decide if I'm mad that it took Tony this long to make this shift, or whether I think it's genius. It's maddening to think that this could have happened earlier. But could it have happened earlier? Would we have been able to run a bit against previous opponents without it killing us defensively? I'm not sure, because I think our previous opponents that play at a faster pace are more talented than Stanford. There's actually a part of me that thinks Tony waited until the perfect time to take the chains off, what with Oregon State and Oregon -- two absolutely horrendous defensive teams -- waiting this weekend. Not to mention the readiness of the personnel to make such a radical shift viable.
Either way, the move worked. The team seemed to play with a freedom and looseness I didn't see in any of the televised games. And that looseness is key. These guys have been playing basketball so long, there are certain things that are just instinctual. (Contrast that with a guy like Thomas Abercrombie, a relative basketball newbie who never really fit in because he lacked those basketball instincts.) When thinking starts to get in the way of instincts, you get indecision and hesitation, resulting in turnovers and missed or blocked shots.
That's why I think Grady's observation two weeks ago that the lineup that seems to work best is one that features a mix of young and experienced players. Too many inexperienced players, and the disciplined wheels of the Bennett system completely fall off. Too many experienced players, and there just simply isn't enough athleticism on the floor to compete at a Pac-10 level. Mix it up, and you get the infusion of athleticism and talent with the steady hand to guide it in the right direction.
That's what we saw on Saturday. No matter how much Bennett tells his team to run, if Klay Thompson doesn't end up with the ball in his hands with the confidence to go, that play doesn't end up the way it does. And if that play doesn't end up the way it does ... well, who knows what would have happened.
Another thing I noticed Saturday were many, many more high screens and rolls with Taylor Rochestie and Aron Baynes -- a staple of the Cougar offense the last two years with Derrick Low/Kyle Weaver/Taylor Rochestie and Robbie Cowgill. They ran it so many times, I thought I was watching the Utah Jazz. Baynes lacked the agility and hands to run the set in previous years, but at his lighter weight, it actually worked on Saturday. Now, that was mostly because Stanford chose to defend Baynes on the roll, freeing up Rochestie to go off the way he did in the second half, so we'll see if Baynes really does have the footwork and hands when teams start to press Rochestie. But it worked for one game.
The awesome thing about all of this? There's still plenty of room for improvement -- mainly in terms of the team's shooting. They still only shot 4-for-15 from 3-point range in the game, 2-of-8 in the second half. They're better than that, and we all know it. At some point, Daven Harmeling is going to come around (if Bennett can find him minutes), and I'm starting to think that Grady's faith in Abe Lodwick is going to be well founded. As long as we can keep Nik Koprivica from shooting 3's (boy, Nov. 19 seems like a long time ago, no?), then we might really be on to something.
Comments
Lodwick will continue to get minutes this week
Finally a shot falls for Lodwick. We know the guy can shoot.
I’m wondering if either WSU or Oregon State break 50 tomorrow. Both play slow. When OSU has the lead I guess they go to the Princeton offense. I think they play a zone for the most part and not a great one. WSU should get open shots for Thompson and Lodwick on the wings. Beating Oregon State is always big because it means you automatically have had a successful weekend heading into Eugene and Mack court (I’ll never forgive that pos place for what happened to Guy Williams).
Oregon is awful but dangerous. You never know if Porter is going to go off for a period of time and Dunnigan is a good young big guy. Hopefully Baynes doesn’t get homered and into foul trouble. Oregon is going to give you opportunities to win.
What a big weekend. This team (like any) is so much better when they play with confidence. Nobody is unbeatable this year but you can’t get too far behind the rest of the conference as well. Get a couple in Oregon and they are right back in the thick of things.
by BornCoug on
Jan 14, 2009 2:22 AM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
I was more encouraged that he actually played some defense
He just looked so completely lost against quality competition earlier this year. He played well against Stanford, and even though I didn’t see the Cal game, it sounds like he played well in that game, too. That’s as encouraging as anything.
by Nuss on
Jan 14, 2009 8:19 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Stanford 2nd half opinion
i am speculating that spiritwise, the team and Tony could have reached a bottom point as the first half ended. They were fed up with poor tentative offense, fed up with analysis, fed up with bad calls, fed up with being pushed around, and frustrated that their ability was not showing up. Perhaps they had enough of all that sub par stuff and came out like fighters who knew they were better than what they had been showing. Technical stuff aside, it could be that they found their identity. I hope so.
by ScottL on
Jan 14, 2009 11:32 AM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
It sure looked that way
They kind of had the look of a team that sort of said, “Hey, if we go down, at least we’re going to go down swinging this time.” And I think there’s something to be said for that.
I also think there was a bit of an element of surprise, something I neglected to write about in my post. Stanford looked like a team that just expected WSU to walk it up floor every time. And who can blame them? That’s all we’d done all year long. Once we started pushing a little bit, they were totally unprepared to deal with it. I think that helped, too.
by Nuss on
Jan 14, 2009 12:46 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Nicely Done
I like the in-depth work that you do. You take interesting topics and stats and dig deeper into them. The analysis is great.
I just started an Arizona Wildcats & PAC-10 basketball blog a few weeks ago and I’m currently looking to connect with at least one blog for the other 9 teams. My hope is that by doing so I can spread my blog to a wider audience, but more importantly by building a PAC-10 blog network be able to provide more in-depth and team specific information for each blog.
Check out my blog and let me know what you think as well as if you’re interested or not.
by NaterB on
Jan 14, 2009 12:05 PM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
I just poked around
Nice start. Keep stopping by!
by Nuss on
Jan 14, 2009 12:50 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I'm gonna have to disagree with you on the effectiveness of the high screen and roll
It did produce a few opportunities for Rochestie, and it got him to the line a few times, but he just wouldn’t make the roll pass to Baynes at all. Part of me doesn’t blame him, what the hell is Baynes gonna do with the ball 18 feet from the basket? The one time Baynes was targeted on a roll pass, he didn’t handle it and it went for a turnover.
by Jo-Jo on
Jan 14, 2009 12:49 PM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
But it was a wrinkle
Obviously I haven’t rewatched the game the way you have, but it seemed to create space on the floor. Honestly, I don’t remember seeing too many times where I thought to myself, “PASS IT!” Baynes is not great at catching a ball in traffic, he can’t hit a 10 foot jumper, and you certainly don’t want him dribbling. (The Baynes Train notwithstanding, of course.) But what I think it will allow them to do is if defenders start jumping the screen, Baynes will be able to use it to establish post position, and probably against a smaller defender.
I really think the Cougs are onto something with that high screen, and it’s only going to get better with each game.
by Nuss on
Jan 14, 2009 12:53 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I don't think that it was bad that they were using it
I just don’t think it was all that effective. But you’re right in that it might create more options down the road.
by Jo-Jo on
Jan 14, 2009 3:02 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
It was much more effective with Cowgill
He could pop out and hit the 15 footer. Baynes looks so uncomfortable. You remember his freshman year when he would pull the occassional 19 footer for no apparent reason?
by Dancing Football on
Jan 14, 2009 5:00 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Random Thought
The team always seems to do well when TB shows emotion. Case in point: the triple overtime win against USC at home 2 years ago that solidified WSU as 2nd place in the Pac-10—the famous “jacket throwing incident.” When TB let the refs have it at the end of the 1st half at the Stanford game, I felt like something special might happen in the second. Of course, it is only special because it is rare that TB shows emotion (and I think it really stirs up the team).
by JimtheCoug on
Jan 14, 2009 2:16 PM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
They had more bite
I can’t speak to the details, but as Scott and Jimthecoug seem to point out, the cougs had more bite after the half, they came out with an more of an attitude than I’ve seen all year. Regardless of his play, I pucker a bit when Aron lines up and goes through the motions of the warming up layup line once with the team then predictably takes a seat and pretends to tie his shoe. I’ve gone over it in my mind as to why he does this and yes last years seniors did the same, but they didn’t pretend to be tying their shoes. I think their talents and opportunities are a big factor but its the hunger for the win that drives the cat.
by oldmancoug on
Jan 14, 2009 7:45 PM PST
reply
actions
0 recs










