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Around SBN: The Ten Worst Swings Of The 2011 Season

Loss aside, that was one of the best games you'll see this year (and other random thoughts)

In the immediate aftermath of a loss like last night, it's tough to put into perspective what you just witnessed. But now that it's the next morning, let me make my case for what I think is being greatly overlooked:

That was one of the best games you're going to see all year, by any two teams, anywhere. It featured incredible stretches of fantastic offense and great defense by both teams, high drama and unexpected heroes.

Don't believe me that this was one exceptionally well-played college basketball game? Check out these numbers from kenpom.com (click here if you don't know what these stats mean):


Wsu-ucla_graph_medium

 

Don't let anyone tell you that just because this wasn't a game in the 80s that it wasn't a great offensive game. People who appreciate good basketball appreciated what they saw last night. This game had just 49 posessions -- even at their slow down pace, the Cougs average 58.2, so this game was really slow -- but they were immensely efficient possessions, featuring good shooting, few turnovers, solid rebounding on both ends by both teams, and precious few fouls. And it's not like the great offense was because there was no defense; both teams had to work for their shots and made some amazing plays.

In short, the only way this game could have been better would be if we had won.

Other random thoughts from last night:

You should feel good about what we saw. There are so many more positives to take away from this game than negatives. A month ago, we would have folded up shop and gotten run off the floor, and we simply didn't quit. We stayed true to the Bennett system, realizing that you aren't going to get 10-15 points back quickly -- it's going to come over a long span of chipping away and chipping away.

As you saw above, this offense just scored 1.19 points per possession on the 47th best defense in the country. Things are really coming together. Now, whether they're coming together quickly enough to get us to the postseason is a matter for another time. For now, we just have to take Tony Bennett's approach and be content with the continued improvement.

Back to the final shot for a second. Another observer of the game pointed out to me that Capers probably was supposed to drive to the bucket, as the left side of the lane was more or less cleared out when he caught the ball, but the freshman kind of panicked. Makes sense, but I still don't like it.

First of all, Capers hasn't shown an ability to finish consistently around the basket, anyway. Plus, you've now put the ball in the hands of a guy who can't make a 3, which the other team knows, so now you've made it harder for him to drive. I maintain having Lodwick out there for a possible catch and shoot for the win -- with the strong possibility of an offensive rebound -- was the better choice.

But then again, if it had worked, or if Taylor Rochestie had seen Caleb Forrest under the basket, or if Dragovic hadn't been unconscious from 3, or if UCLA hadn't made any of a number of circus shots at the beginning or end of the game, we wouldn't even be talking about this. Such is life.

Can't say enough about what Forrest brought to the table last night. His offensive rating was an absurd 217.6 for a team that desperately needed a scoring lift. UCLA gambled that Forrest wouldn't be able to burn them -- get it, BURN ... FORREST FIRE ... get it? -- and they nearly paid dearly for it. I knock Forrest a lot for being a weak defensive rebounder (his DR% was still only 9.9 percent last night), but for a game, he was exactly what we needed.

Nikola Koprivica is a more or less useless basketball player at the moment. Watching him play is starting to become painful. He's clearly having a crisis of confidence where he's either thinking too much or not thinking enough. That 3 ball that Michael Roll sank over him was inexcusable. You've got to know who you're guarding better than that; Roll is not going to go by anyone, and if he is, he's certainly not getting to the rim.

To me, this exemplifies everything that Nik is doing wrong at the moment: He's just not making the right plays at the right times. He's a virtual black hole on offense, posting a 79.7 offensive rating -- meaning he's roughly 20 percent worse on offense player than the average Division I basketball player -- and his turnover percentage is sixth-highest in the conference. And his defense ... well, let's just say about the only compliment I can pay to him is that he's still a sound defensive rebounder.

What to do with him? Honestly, I don't think there's much else that can be done. Tony Bennett already has greatly reduced his minutes, and hasn't had him in at all down the stretch of the last four games. I imagine Tony is hoping that at some point the guy that we all know is in there starts to come back out, but I'm losing hope. His stretches of non-production are absolutely killing this team.

Personally, I'd like to see Harmeling get his minutes, although it certainly seems like the coaches have pigeonholed Harm into the 4 spot after last night. Forrest was giving them great offense, so there just wasn't a need to even get Daven in the game. Harmeling is a worse defensive rebounder -- at least in terms of going and getting the ball -- than Koprivica, but he'll do just about everything else better than Nik at this point.

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'Forrest fire' tag, please

And I know I was dissecting the final play last night, but this is one of the least painful losses I’ve ever experienced. Seriously – I thought the team would roll over and go to sleep after we were down twelve. I heard a guy in my section say, “If it gets to 25 we’re leaving.”

Point is, I didn’t expect this team to fight and come back the way they did. Sure, it fell short, but I’ll take getting beat by Darren Collison any day over getting beat by Dragovic. I still love this team.

by Grady Clapp on Jan 23, 2009 12:47 PM PST reply actions  

Totally agree today

Last night was just tough because I know what those missed opportunities mean going forward in terms of trying to get to the tournament.

But you know what? Maybe we should all just quit focusing on the postseason and focus on enjoying a team that blossoming before our eyes. This really is a group we can get behind, one we can fall in love with even if it falls short of the tournament. As embarrassed as I was at the end of the UW game, I was equally proud last night. And the best part is that last night didn’t feel like a fluke. Yeah, Forrest isn’t going to do that every night, but we played a great game — everything else that happened last night is sustainable.

by Jeff Nusser on Jan 23, 2009 1:05 PM PST up reply actions  

Now you're gettin' it, Nuss

I linked this on another thread for you, but I’ll put it here to make the point again;

http://www.cougcenter.com/2008/12/30/705430/the-ncaa-tournament-should

This team played one hell of a ball game last night. They are coming along, and at worst could get a look at the NIT. Which I think is an accomplishment for a team that has been playing three freshman on the floor at the same time for considerable minutes over the past few weeks.

And sure, Forrest doesn’t do this every night (or ever again, maybe), but it also was a night when Drago had his best ever performance. They cancel each other out, and you’re left with two teams playing some seriously sweet ass basketball. For one night, the Cougs played like a top 25 team, results aside.

by Jo-Jo on Jan 23, 2009 1:16 PM PST up reply actions  

That's why we, like all good blogs, avoid results-based analysis

Process is more important than outcome. And our process is getting pretty darn good.

by Jeff Nusser on Jan 23, 2009 1:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Its nice but....

Its nice to see us so competitive at this point, and it is nice to see the young team coming together, but its hard to not think about postseason play at this point. If we don’t go to the NCAA’s this year, next year will be far tougher without Taylor, Forrest, and Baynes. If we had them coming back next year it would be far easier to focus on the team getting better with the knowledge that at least there is always next year.

I do think we have great potential for 2-3 years from now, but its hard to look toward that when we could be just a couple wins short of the NCAA’s now.

by peaty411s on Jan 23, 2009 4:52 PM PST up reply actions  

You told me early in the week

We had two chances of winning a game this week. And I kinda played along and thought yeah well if the stars allign and the girls are cute something could happen to light up Beasley. Your calls history now, I saw two chances last night. Once when Forest had the ball and six or seven seconds on the clock, and once when Capers had three or four seconds on the clock.

Tell me now, Mr. Nuss, whats up for Saturday? We got any chances to pull off a win or did we spend them on the boys from LA?

by oldmancoug on Jan 23, 2009 5:55 PM PST reply actions  

Oh, USC is WAY more beatable than UW

I’ll talk about it on the game thread, but their offense is much more prone to our defensive disruptions than UCLA was. You know how UCLA got hot or just seems to make circus shots? Not nearly as much of a problem with USC. Their offense has been so inconsistent this year, and if we play sound, I really like our chances.

by Jeff Nusser on Jan 24, 2009 9:32 AM PST up reply actions  

Nuss, the O was efficient but it was ugly!

We really looked bad run it. I mentioned in a previous post that I thought we had about 10 really good offensive possessions where we were fluid.
I am really pulling for the NCAA tourney because we are so Senior laden. I think next yr is going to be tough because we essentially have three frosh seeing time and that is it. We need to knock off the Trojans and pull off a surprise sweep in the desert next week.
Also, I completely agree on Harmeling. I believe he is our key to the season, particularly with Caleb and Casto locking down the 4 together. We need Capers and Harmeling sharing time, which can include Capers, Thompson and Harms on the floor when TR is resting.

by ptowncoug3012 on Jan 23, 2009 10:17 PM PST reply actions  

UCLA will do that to you

They might not be as good defensively, but the Bruins are still very, very good. I’m sorry, but you just don’t get that kind of efficiency on offense without doing something right. Every defense has breakdowns, and we were finding the breakdown and exploiting it, thanks to Caleb. We obviously don’t want to rely on Forrest for that every night, but it was the right thing to do against UCLA, where they can take away most of your other options when they want to.

by Jeff Nusser on Jan 24, 2009 9:36 AM PST up reply actions  

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