CougCenter: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
New Blog: Once A Metro covering Red Bull New York!

OK, Tony: Time to earn all that money

For two years, it seemed like everything came so easy to Tony Bennett. Whether it was having the job his father came out of retirement to groom handed to him, or guiding his first two teams to the NCAA Tournament at a school that previously had amounted to Pac-10 purgatory for years, Bennett always seemed to have the Midas touch.

Now? Bennett's just another coach trying desperately to figure out which buttons to push in an attempt to make a difference with a team that's struggling.

And those struggles have been well documented. I'll spare you the "beating a dead horse" gif, but suffice it to say that while this team is as stingy on defense as ever, the offense has been flat terrible against legitimate, big-conference competition, averaging just an 84.2 efficiency rating (what's that?). Contrast that with a 111.9 rating against the small-major competition that has made up the rest of the schedule. (In case you're not sufficiently agape at that gap, in a typical 60-possession game for the Cougs, that's a 17-point difference.)

Over the past two years, Bennett earned a well-deserved reputation as a supreme game manager -- a guy unafraid to tinker with personnel and tactics to win a game. His halftime adjustments became the thing of legends, as his teams were famous for turning first-half deficits into victories. Bennett was regarded as a coach who got every ounce of potential out of every one of his players.

But this year, the story has been much different. His teams are melting down in the second half. He's got a number of players who appear to be underperforming. And, perhaps most puzzing, he's been remakably vanilla in his personnel adjustments in spite of all the struggles, electing to stick with his upperclassmen, even as they falter in spectacular fashion.

In searching for what might be done differently to try and get some more out of this offense, I decided to analyze the proportion of minutes going to each player for the Cougs. Here are how the minutes broke down in the first three games against "like" competition, as the Cougs went 1-2 against MSU, Pitt and Baylor with an average efficiency rating of 85.0:

  1. Rochestie    37.3
  2. Thompson    31.5
  3. Koprivica    30.2
  4. Baynes    27.7
  5. Harmeling    26.5
  6. Forrest    19.7
  7. Casto    15.2
  8. Capers    8.5
  9. Lodwick    1.8
  10. Harthun    1.3

Clearly underwhelmed by these offensive performances, Bennett elected to go with an even more upperclassmen-heavy rotation in the next three games against "like" competition, giving Caleb Forrest major minutes against Gonzaga and inserting him into the starting lineup against LSU and UW:

  1. Rochestie    37.0
  2. Thompson    30.3
  3. Forrest    29.7
  4. Koprivica    29.0
  5. Baynes    26.7
  6. Harmeling    22.3
  7. Casto    13.0
  8. Capers    7.7
  9. Lodwick    2.3
  10. Harthun    1.3

But while we all like Forrest and appreciate his perceived contributions to the offense, his increased playing has not made a positive impact on the overall effectiveness of the unit. The results were largely the same for this rotation change, as the Cougs went 0-3 with an average 83.4 efficiency rating.

The interesting thing to me is looking where Forrest's minutes have come from. Rochestie, Thompson, Koprivica and Baynes all have had essentially consistent minutes across all six games; guys who have seen their minutes decrease include Harmeling, Casto and Capers.

Really, all Bennett has done is shuffle the minutes in the frontcourt -- he hasn't really changed the essential nature of his approach to getting his players to put the ball in the basket. Rather than Harmeling getting the bulk of the minutes at the 4, those minutes are now going to Forrest, with Harmeling getting some run at the 3 and Casto seeing the floor less.

That  speaks volumes about how Bennett perceives are the strengths of his team. We knew he preferred a perimeter oriented motion attack over the past two years, but it made sense with guys like Kyle Weaver and Derrick Low in the fold. Now? I'm pretty sure it doesn't make sense anymore. Despite the overwhelming evidence, Bennett has continued to stick with his guards.

But if Bennett wants to get the most out of this team, he might need to rethink his love affair with his perimeter players. I've got two suggestions if Tony's reading.

First of all, trade some defense for offense. I know this is sacrilege in the Bennett world, but the truth is that this team has some room to fudge on the defensive end. Only Gonzaga has truly run away from the Cougs, as the offensive efficiency numbers of WSU's other opponents were held around 100 or below before being inflated by late-game free throws. This team can afford to give up a little defense if it can somehow add some offense in exchange.

To me, this primarily means getting Koprivica off the floor. As much as I can appreciate Nik's contributions on defense, the offense seems to just grind to a near standstill when he's in the game. Those pretty drives, such as that slicing thing of beauty on Saturday, are way too few and far in between. He dribbles too much, still is shooting too many 3's -- I hate to say I told you so, but he's just 3 for his past 12 in these games -- and when he does decide to pass, he's indecisive. We've got to get more from this position.

Who should Bennett turn to? I'm not sure. But whether it's Capers or one of the little-used reserves, Harthun or Lodwick, Bennett's got to give them a longer leash than what he's shown so far. Bennett has done a remarkable Lou Piniella impression this year, as it feels like the first time one of the young guys makes a mistake -- especially on defense -- he finds a seat on the pine.

This, of course, is in stark contrast to the upperclassmen, who seem to be able to make as many mistakes as they can muster without threat of consequence. Even though there clearly were problems after MSU, Pitt and Baylor, Bennett went more and more conservative as the season has slipped farther and farther away. Here's to hoping it's not too late to give one of these guys a chance to infuse some offense while the season is still salvageable.

Second, make this an interior-orented offense. The best scorer on this team is Aron Baynes. Yet Baynes is only averaging the third-most shots on the team. That's a disgrace. Even more puzzling about it is that Baynes seems to be the one guy on the team who relishes having the ball in his hands -- he looks like a guy who would love to take the scoring burden on this team.

Unfortunately, the Bennett motion offense just doesn't put a high priority on getting the ball into the post. No matter how much they want to get the ball to Baynes, their offensive sets simply aren't going to provide those looks often enough, because it's not what they're designed to do. It's time to put in some more sets designed to get Baynes the ball, and run them more frequently.

Bennett also might want to take one more step in acknowledging that the frontcourt is his strength and start playing some bigger lineups. What's to stop the Cougs from putting Casto, Forrest and Baynes all on the floor at the same time? No, there's not a 3-point threat in that bunch, but Forrest presents enough range that the trio should be able to play on the together without stepping on each other too much. And Casto possesses the athleticism to guard smaller quicker guys; while he would play the 4 on offense, he could at least adequately guard the other team's 3 on defense. For example, how different might Saturday have been with Casto on Quincy Pondexter?

If this team became more interior oriented, you might just find a nice side-effect: Taylor Rochestie and Klay Thompson start playing better, thanks to decreased pressure.

Whatever the solution, we know something radically different has to be done. This team cannot simply settle for shuffling minutes around among similar players. It's time for a pretty radical shift in approach.

0 recs  |  Comment 14 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Nice thoughts there...

My gut tells me that Tony isn’t going to change a thing right now, and it’s a shame. Hope I’m wrong.

by cfred on Jan 8, 2009 2:33 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I think you are wrong

I think Tony reached his breaking point on Saturday. I don’t know if what we’ll get is going to be radically different, but I’ll bet there are some significant and noticeable changes with the rotation. I believe Tony is too good of a coach to just sit by. I think he was just trying to give the upperclassmen every chance to make it happen, but Saturday proved that there just isn’t anymore time to waste.

by Jeff Nusser on Jan 8, 2009 3:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think it is safe to say that I was right and you were wrong.

Sure, Nik and Caleb started while Daven did not. But none of the freshman saw a lot of minutes. (Klay doesn’t count as a freshman, he can be classified as a super-freshman…)

by cfred on Jan 9, 2009 9:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Good post......

….to bad your not the coach. what sucks about a season like this, as a fan is you feel helpless. you have know clue if you team is going to pull it together and if the coach is going to get the right guys on the floor.

here is a sign we are going to get blown out: we start the game by holding Cal to 2 for 10 shooting, yet we are only up 5-4 mid way through the first half.

by donkeyjon12 on Jan 8, 2009 7:55 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Agree

I agree with most everything you said and I also agree with the first comment, I don’t think it will happen. I do hope Tony makes a change though. I think they really need to reduce Nik’s minutes and I think they do need to develop another ball handler. I think the best option right now is to get Harthun more minutes. From what I have seen, other teams really pressure the ball when it is handled by anyone except Rochestie. I have seen that Klay and Nik are not good enough ball handlers to handle the pressure, though Klay seems to be improving. Teams have also figured out to just get in Harmelings face on the perimeter as he is not going to dribble past them and then he doesn’t shoot.

The big lineup might work for a short period, but I think other teams will burn us with driving guards getting the big guys in foul trouble and then we wouldn’t really have any replacements on the bench. Or they start hitting the 3 as the bigs won’t get out on them as well. I do like the idea of Baynes and Casto in there at the same time as long as Baynes looks for Casto when he is doubled. The kick out to the guards isn’t working because no one in there seems to be able to hit the 3. I like Capers and think is a pretty good ball handler and a great defender, but he isn’t going to help with our offensive woes unless he starts driving to the hoop and drawing fouls. I think Lodwick is basically another harmeling who doesn’t play as good of D. So my thoughts are to get Casto more minutes by taking some away from both Forest and giving Baynes breathers and getting Harthun in there instead of Nik. Other than that, if Harmeling is not going to shoot, give Lodwick a chance to fill his role.

by selahcoug on Jan 8, 2009 7:59 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

As for the 3-big defensive issues

I don’t think Casto will have any more trouble getting out on 3-point shooters than Harmeling does when he playes alongside Forrest and Baynes …

by Jeff Nusser on Jan 8, 2009 3:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Predictability

Totally. I think Nuss highlighted the weird predictable schizophrenia that the offense is going through right now. The Cougs think they are a perimeter team, so they play perimeter until they get fully shut down in the second half. Then, in frustration, Bennett and the team realizes that Baynes is the only one that can score; so, after a bunch turnovers resulting from bad passes to get the ball to Forrest or Baynes, we lose by 15 points because the opposing team has totally figured us out. Ugh. Like everyone else, I am not holding out for Bennett to do what you proposed, but I sure wish he would. It is unnerving to think that we have guys that can drive (Rochestie, Nik, Capers, and maybe even Harthun), we have guys that get paint points (Baynes, Forrest, and Casto), and we have perimeter shooters (Harmeling, Rochestie, Thompson) but the opposing teams know what is coming: we’ll shoot perimeter until we stall (and, even then, we’ll persist in a few possessions to shoot awkward 3s until the end of the game), then Rochestie will drive to the basket out of frustration (which usually leads to quickening the pace of the game and crippling us), and then we’ll look to Baynes to save us. I just wish we weren’t so obvious. Nuss’ strategy would help shift pressure, like he said, and make it look like interior play is not just our secondary game plan.

by JimtheCoug on Jan 8, 2009 10:53 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Inside Out

This was always drilled into us way back in middle school and HS. Closer shots are higher percentage shots. Plus, once you start making the points in the paint, the outside opens up. Maybe then Daven will take some looks and take some shots.

Excellent analysis, Nuss. I cringe whenever Nik gets the ball these days, he is not helping much. More Casto cannot be any worse…

by DCinSEA on Jan 8, 2009 1:40 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Did you know ...

That although Casto’s minutes are down four per game in the last three against like competition, he’s averaging the same rebounds, more points and more blocks? Methinks the guy is ready for a 25-minute night. Let’s get some of that energy in there.

by Jeff Nusser on Jan 8, 2009 3:24 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I totally noticed that,

It’s been killing me because he really has looked like the best player on the floor aside from Baynes for a couple of weeks now. To bad we’ve only gotten that for about 5-10 minutes per.

by Jo-Jo on Jan 8, 2009 4:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Methinks? Did you really write that?

Losing credibility by the second… :-P

by cfred on Jan 9, 2009 9:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

hahaha

let’s make fun of Nuss!

by Jo-Jo on Jan 10, 2009 8:56 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Earning his pay

Nuss- love your analysis. As anyone can attest, the goal of any team (and any coach for that matter) , is to win and make the tournament every year and hopefully expand your talent base.
While it is a struggle to watch our Cougs show so much difficulty in their ability to close games. I think it’s very clear that our changes in the line-up are a reflection we still haven’t achieved an identity in this years squad. The past 4 years have spoiled us into thinking Bennett has the winning formula figured out in full. In reality, the product of our last 2 NCAA tourney teams were a product of 2 systems- his Dads approach followed by the finishing touches of his own. At the point Tony took over the team, the team identity had felled and with everyone’s roles solidified he was able to fine tune it and put us over the top to realize the potential that ‘team’ had.
This year’s squad came in this year from the get-go telling everyone to check last year’s expectations at the door – and rightfully so. The holdover vets now had two roles: 1) set an example for the new guys and help them integrate into Bennett ball and 2) in many cases get use to going from role players to full time starters (and the pillars of our offense).
Naturally Bennett does not want to see or even say this year being a rebuilding year, but in reality, his job this year is to set the foundation again much the same way his father did in the first two years. Remember his father didn’t just chuck the previous coaches recruits to the curb- he tried to win with what he had while instilling his system with the ‘new guys’.
I think we still definitely have a chance to see some Bennett magic this year, I think what we’ll end up seeing is Bennett developing next year’s team as the future vets who will carry this team like the vets Weaver, Cowgill, Ivory and Lowe were.

by SeantheCoug on Jan 10, 2009 8:14 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to CougCenter, a blog dedicated to Washington State University athletics.

Community Guidelines
Start posting about the Cougars »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

Connect_with_facebook

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Small
NCAA Tournament Day One Preview and Open Thread
Small
The Human Side of College Athletics
Small
Another fitting loss for the PAC-10
No_pepper_small
Spring Fever
Small
Taylor Rochestie Interview from Goettingen, Germany
Small
For levity's sake
Summercamp4_small
Need a little help...
Small
Cougars on Lexy.com
Small
Gold medal game open thread
Small
Cougs sweep Friday's doubleheader

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >


Facebook

In addition to Twitter @CougCenter, find us on Facebook!

CougCenter.com on Facebook

Go Cougs

SBNation.com Recent Stories

South Florida guard Dominique Jones reacts after an NCAA basketball game with Georgetown in Washington Wednesday, Feb. 3, 2010. South Florida defeated No. 7 Georgetown 72-64. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

South Florida's Dominique Jones Likely To Declare For NBA Draft

Oregon's LeKendric Longmire, left and California's Omondi Amoke go after a rebound during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game at the Pac-10 Conference tournament, Thursday, March 11, 2010, in Los Angeles. California won 90-74. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill) link

What Does Omondi Amoke's Suspension Mean For Cal?

via www2.tbo.com +9 updates

Full 2010 NCAA Tournament Predictions, From The SB Nation Editors ('Cause We Know Stuff!)

More from SBNation.com >


HUMANS WHO WRITE ABOUT SPORTS

Jeff_mug_h2_small Jeff Nusser

Spaghetti-cat_small Grady.

Arizona_small Dancing Football

Official Partner of CBS Sports