PLAYER PROFILE: Nikola Koprivica
For those of you who are new to this site, the stats used in the bio are from kenpom.com. For some help getting acquainted with these stats, read this primer.
Scouting Report: Nik burst on the scene his freshman year and quickly earned minutes on a very good team with his skills on the defensive end and his ability to get to the basket and draw fouls on the offensive end. Unfortunately, his freshman season was cut short with a major knee injury against Oregon.
Before that premature end to his season, Koprivica put up a very respectable 98.6 offensive rating (ORtg) while taking 20.6% of the team's shots while he was on the floor. His most impressive numbers were his free throw rate (FTR) of 41.1 and 3.8 fouls drawn per forty minutes. He also was solid in defensive rebounding for a guard, garnering 12.2% of the opportunities.
Nikola's sophomore season saw an increase in minutes and an overall decrease in effectiveness. While he was still very good at getting to the line (45.9 FTR while taking just 16% of the shots), he started turning the ball over too frequently (22.6 TO Rate) and saw his ORtg dip to 87.1. One factor, outside of the turnovers, that played a large part in his ORtg dip was his failure to hit shots from behind the arc. He was a miserable 4 from 29 from three.
The regression continued during Koprivica's junior year. Without the distraction of stars like Kyle Weaver and Derrick Low, Nik was no longer able to do the one thing that made him a threat on the offensive end. His FTR dipped to 18.7. Even though Nik was able to hit three pointers at a higher percentage (27%) he still saw his ORtg dip to 78.0. He also became even less involved in the offense, taking just 12.5% of the shots. The most disturbing stat out of Nik's 08-09 campaign is a 29.9 turnover rate. Generally, one would hope that a player takes better care of the ball as they gain experience, but that has definitely not been the case for Koprivica.
Heading into Nikola's senior season it is clear his strengths are at the defensive end. He is still a very good rebounding guard and an effective man-to-man defender. If he wants to play a more significant role on a team loaded with talent at guard, he is going to have to regain some of the offensive ability he flashed in his freshman year. He is the only player on the roster that has proven in the past that he can get to the basket and draw fouls at the Pac 10 level. If he can do that again this year, expect to see him on the floor on a frequent basis.
Best Case Scenario: The new, open offense proves to be a perfect match for Koprivica. Playing with a new confidence, Nik is back to his freshman self, going to the hole and drawing fouls. This ability makes all his teammates better, as he sets up open outside looks for guys like Klay Thompson, Mike Harthun, and Abe Lodwick. Koprivica takes care of the ball, rarely turning it over. He is good on the boards and keeps his man off the stat sheet on a regular basis. Ken Bone can find no reason to keep him out of the lineup and he plays thirty minutes a night.
Worst Case Scenario: Nik's regression continues. In Bone's fast-paced offense he finds that he simply cannot keep up with the new infusion of athleticism. He is tentative with the ball and doesn't drive to the basket or draw fouls. His turnover rate stays at his junior level as he makes mistakes just trying to get into the offense. His impact on the defensive glass is diminished, as athletic guards like Marcus Capers and Reggie Moore snatch up opportunities. He finds it difficult to get on the floor and get in rhythm, averaging just 10-15 minutes per night.
Likely Scenario: Nik improves his turnover rate, but still is hovering around his sophomore number of 22.6. The open offense does allow Nik to get to the hole more often, just not to the level he did in his first two seasons. He is his same old self on the defensive glass and in the man-to-man. With a crowded backcourt, Koprivica sees his playing dip a little bit from the past and he plays 15-20 minutes a night.
0 recs |
9 comments
|
Comments
Read somewhere
that we’d likely see him playing the 4 spot a lot….
I don’t know what to expect with this team. So few known quantities, plus a new coach and a tweaked system….
Excited and nervous.
by TiltingRight on Oct 25, 2009 1:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I read that about Lodwick.
Does Nik have the size to play the 4? I guess there is the same question for Abe.
CougCenter WSU's second main blog
by Dancing Football on Oct 26, 2009 7:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The good news is that the Pac-10 is virtually devoid of quality big men
If there’s a year to be thin up front, this is it.
by Jeff Nusser on Oct 26, 2009 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm surprised I'm only one of three people right now who see him playing 30+ minutes a night
I just think that necessity is going to dictate it.
by Jeff Nusser on Oct 25, 2009 5:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Oh, and I think the people who see him at 9 minutes or less are taking out their bitterness from last year
Because it ain’t going to happen.
By the way, is that not the worst mug shot in the history of sports mug shots? What happened to that great hair? Did he let DC give him a haircut?
by Jeff Nusser on Oct 25, 2009 5:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he turns the ball over 30% of the time I hope he doesn't play 30 minutes a night.
CougCenter WSU's second main blog
by Dancing Football on Oct 26, 2009 7:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I would hope that Bone's style will cut down on the turnovers
He had the biggest problems trying to get to the bucket then getting stuck. He’s just not a halfcourt player — can’t hit a jumpshot, generally not quick enough to take guards off the dribble. I see the offensive change as being very good for him — even in the turnovers.
by Jeff Nusser on Oct 26, 2009 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The way Craig worded it made it seem like the 30 minutes was only an option if he perfectly fits the offense
I don’t doubt that he’ll get plenty of minutes out of necessity, but not because he’s playing excellently.
I voted for 9 minutes or less and I will admit to some bitterness. How many wide open 3’s can you miss? I sincerely hope Bone’s offense runs a lot of backdoor cuts, because Nik was both our best passer and cutter for those sorts of plays. Rochestie did it occasionally but those angles (with or without the ball) just seem like all Nik sees on offense, and I think he gets frustrated when other players don’t make the cuts that he expects.
I hope our team shoots well enough from 3 that Nik finds a lot of room to make his slashes to the hoop, but I’m not optimistic. On the plus side, Casto seems to have better hands and quicker reactions than Baynes did so hopefully the turnovers will be limited. I’m not worried about defense or rebounding from Nik, and that’s what I think will get him minutes at all if the offense isn’t clicking. Unfortunately I could easily see a Harmeling-type Senior year from him.
by johnnycougar on Oct 26, 2009 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

by 










