What happened to our depth?
by TiltingRight on Nov 12, 2009 3:57 PM PST
53 comments
EDIT NUSS: This is a fantastically thorough and comprehensive look at just what the heck happened with our recruiting during those last Doba years that has left the program so talent poor. It really is astounding. I bumped it to the front page because it's that good. Enjoy.
Some folks have downplayed the effect past recruiting has had on our current roster. Kids that were recruited from 04 to 09 are the players that should be giving us our stars, our starters and our depth. The vast majority of our playing time right now is made up of 08 and 09 recruits, so I'll leave them out of the picture, so we can focus on the classes Wulff inherited, which is where his biggest contributors should be coming from.
I figured I'd do some research and share it to see "What happened to our depth?" As I looked at the numbers, it became incredibly illuminating to look at this information. We've heard it was bad, but I doubt you know exactly how bad. You will.
Disclaimer: While scouting service rankings are inherently flawed, we'll use them because the information is easily available, and should help illustrate a pattern, even if the numbers aren't perfect. So let's look at the rankings Scout.com has given our recruits over that stretch of time, both nationally, and in the Pac10.
Year - Nat Rank - Pac10 Rank
2004 - 21 - 3
2005 - 47 - 8
2006 - 45 - 9
2007 - 54 - 10
2008 - 74 - 10
2009 - 43 - 7
We'll see who the players were that make up those rankings, and how much they've contributed after the jump. Buckle up, it's a long one.
Position - Name - Star Rating - Year Left Roster - Team Impact
Class of 2004
21st Nationally, 3rd in the Pac 10
Of the 25 signees, 20 made it to campus, and only 15 didn't flunk out, transfer or drop out due to injury 2 years later. In fact, only 11 players remained for the 2007 season... 56% attrition (including graduation) in 2 years. Only 4 players were left on the squad that Wulff took over, none are on the current team. I've striked out the players that never showed up, or never contributed and were gone within 2 years. I've bolded the players still on the squad with Wulff.
WR - 4*- Michael Bumpus - 2007 - Played 4 years as a big impact player
DB - 4* - Randy Estes - Never made it to campus
CB - 4* - Tyrone Brackenridge - 2006 - JC transfer, played 2004 and 2006 as a big impact player
RB - 4* - Jerome Harrison - 2005 - JC transfer, played 2004 and 2005 as a big impact player
OL - 3* - Jacob McKinney - 2007 - RS'd, then on the roster 3 years, little impact
QB - 3* - Gary Rogers - 2008 - On the roster 5 years, injured senior season
OL - 3* - Andy Roof - 2006 - RS'd in 04, nagging injuries in 05 and 06, suspended in 07, expelled in 08
RB - 3* - J.T. Diederichs - Never made it to campus
DL - 3* - Matt Eichelberger - 2008 - Contributed on 2 deeps
TE - 3* - Jed Collins - 2007 - Played 4 years as an impact player
LB - 3* - Alex Hamill - 2007 - Lots of injuries. Played some special teams, never cracked 2 deep.
OL - 3* - Dan Rowlands - 2008 - Solid contributor 3 years
DE - 3*- Jason Roberts - 2005 - RS'd then transferred to Fresno State
RB - 3*- Ian Bell - 2007 - never cracked 3 deep
DE - 3* -Latrell Meyers - Never made it to campus
K - 2* - Loren Langley - 2007 - Struggled with injuries, 1st string kicker
DE - 2* -Lawrence Ball - Never made it to campus
OL - 2* -Colin Donovan - 2006 - Done in by injuries, never cracked 2 deep.
TE - 2* -Bryan Baird - 2006 - Done in by injuries, never cracked 2 deep.
OL - 2* -Eddie Vickers - 2005 - Flunked out
WR - 2*-Charles Dillon - Went JC route, resigned in 06
LB - 2* - Steffan Blume - 2005 - No info available
DE - 2* - Mike Graise - 2008 - 4 year contributor
LB - 2* - Tyson Kirksey - Never made it to campus
WR - 1* -Greg Prator - 2005 - JC transfer, contributed 2 years.
Class of 2005
47th Nationally, 8th in the Pac 10
Of 24 signees, 20 (eventually) made it to campus. 12 made it past their first year, and ended up playing under Wulff. 50% attrition in 2 years. (53% of the players in the 2004 and 2005 classes are no longer with the team by the time Wulff takes over.) 5 players on the CURRENT team, 3, sometimes 4 are among the starters. I'll bold and italicize players on the 09 squad from here out.
QB - 4* - Arkelon Hall - 2006 - RS'd then flunked out, transferred to JC. Plays for Memphis.
DL - 4* - Fevaea'i Ahmu - 2008 - Played 4 years - Solid contributor
DL - 4* - Bryan Tarkington - initially failed to qualify, then came in the 06 class, played 1 year before flunking out
DB - 3* - Shelton Danzy - qualified, but left before playing
DB - 3* - Xavier Hicks - RS'd, played 4 years -Solid contributor
OL - 3* - Kenny Alfred - RS'd, played 4 years - Solid contributor
WR - 3*- Brandon Gibson - 2008 - played 4 years - Impact player
WR - 3* -Lorenzo Bursey - 2005 - RS'd then transferred
DB - 3* - DeWayne Patterson - 2005 - played 1 year then flunked out
DB - 2* - James Bradley - Failed to qualify
QB - 2* - Cole Morgan - 2007 - Never cracked 2 deep, transferred to WWU
DL - 2* - Joseph Townsend - Failed to qualify
DB - 2* - Lamar Brumfield - 2005 - RS'd then transferred
WR - 2* -Michael Willis - 2008 - Minimal impact 3 years, kicked off team before 2009 season
LB - 2* - Cory Evans - 2008 - Solid contributor 4 years
RB - 2* - Dwight Tardy - Current starting RB
RB - 2* - DeMaundray Woolridge - 2006 - Played some as FR, then flunked out, now at Idaho
WR - 2* -Benny Ward - 2008 - Played 4 years, no impact
LB - 2* - Jason Stripling - On current 2 deep
LB - 2* - Greg Trent - 2008 - Played 4 years, solid contributor
WR - 2* -Greg Walker - 2008 - No impact 3 years, no longer with team
DB - 2* - Courtney Williams - 2006 - Played some special teams as FR, then flunked out.
DB - 2* - Nehemiah Mundy - Never made it to campus
OL - 2* - Derek Hunter - 2006 - one year, flunked out.
Class of 2006
45th Nationally, 9th in Pac 10
24 commits, 21 made it to campus, 16 played at some point, 9 players remained after 2 years. 7 players are on the current team, 12, including class of 05. 61% attrition in two years. 52% of commits from previous 3 years are NOT with the team by the time Wulff coaches his first game.
LB - 4* - Andy Mattingly - Played 4 years, current impact player
WR- 4* -Charles Dillon - 2007 - JC transfer - played 2 years, impact player
RB - 3* - J.T. Diederichs - Never made it to campus
WR - 3* -Anthony Houston - RS'd hasn't made an impact, recently switched to DB
TE - 3* - Trevor Mooney - 2007 -RS'd, played one year and left the program
DL - 3* - Toby Turpin - RS'd, current contributor
RB - 3* - Skylar Jessen - 2007 - RS'd, medical problems forced early retirement
RB - 3* - Marcus Richmond - RS'd, currently with team, plays paringly, little impact
WR - 3* -Keith Parr, Jr. - 2008 - RS'd, injuries limited playing time, transferred to BSU
OL - 3* - Grady Maxwell - 2007 - RS'd, medical problems forced early retirement
RB - 3* - Derrell Hutsona - 2007 - Played two years as backup RB and KOR
WR - 3* -Finas Rabb - 2007 - Played two years as backup WR
DB - 3* - B.T. Walker - 2007 - Played two years as backup DB and PR
DL - 2* - Kevin Kooyman - RS'd, current contributor
DL - 2* - Preston Brooks - 2006 - RS'd, left the team
DL - 2* - Asly Jean-Jaques -2007 - RS'd, left the team
DB - 2* - Kerry Maddox - 2005 - Left team in first year due to family illness
OL - 2* - Chris Bush - Never made it to campus
RB - 2* - Chris Ivory - 2008 - Played 3 years, kicked off team due to violation of team rules
OL - 2* - Joe Eppele - On current 2 deep as a backup
OL - 2* - Micah Hannam - Starter on current team
WR - 2* -Greg Walker - 2007 - RS'd, played some special teams, transferred
TE - 2* - Jason Price - Never made it to campus
DB - 2* - Brian Williams - 2007 - JC transfer, contributed two years.
2007
54th Nationally, 10th in Pac 10
28 commits, 25 made it to campus, 15 players still with team after 2 years, 27 including previous classes. 40 % attrition by this season from 2007,
DB - 5* - Terry Mixon - Injured, quit team during first fall camp
RB - 3* - Logwone Mitz - solid current contributor
OL - 3* - Steven Ayers - current contributor sometimes starter, hampered by injuries
QB - 3* - Kevin Lopina - started most of 2008, current backup QB
OL - 3* - Andrew Roxas - current contributor, redshirting 2009 due to illness
DB - 3* - Romeo Pellum - 2008 - played 2 years, kicked off team for disciplinary reasons
DB - 3* - Eric Block - currently with team, hampered by medical condition
LB - 3* - Deon Ford - RS'd, sat out 2008 with injury, no significant contribution
WR - 3* -Jeshua Anderson - 2008 - contributed in 07 and 08, quit during 09 season to focus on track
DB - 3* - Cornorris Atkins - never made it to campus
TE - 3* - Devin Frischknecht - 2008 - JC transfer significant contributor in 07 and 08
DL - 3* - Jesse Feagin - JC transfer, RS'd, current contributor
OL - 3* - Vaughn Lesuma - 2008 - JC transfer, significant contributor in 07 and 08
LB - 2* - Marshal Pirtz - 2008 - RS'd, no significant contribution, transferred to Idaho
LB - 2* - Halston Higgins - RS'd, current contributor
OL - 2* - B.J. Guerra - RS'd, current starter, hampered by injuries
OL - 2* - Kevin Freitag - RS'd, not listed on 2 deeps
QB - 2* - J.T. Levenseller - 2008 - Played in a few games during 08 season, transferred to Eastern.
QB - 2* - Marshall Lobbestael - RS'd, current backup QB
WR - 2* -Daniel Blackledge - Current contributor on 2 deep
DB - 2* - Aire Justin - Current starter at CB
DB - 2* - Chima Nwachukwu - Current starter at S
DL - 2* - Oga Fuamui - never made it to campus, currently at Idaho
LB - 2* - Wyman Alexander - never made it to campus
DB - 2* - Devin Giles - 2008 - played 2 years, kicked off team for discipline before 09 season
OL - 1* - Reed Lesuma - currently on team, not listed on 2 deeps
LB - 1* - Kendrick Dunn - 2008 - played 2 years as solid contributor
DB - 1* - Alfonso Jackson - 2008 - played 2 years as solid contributor
Summary of 08 and 09 classes
The class of 08 was thrown together in a very short window, and was ranked 74th nationally, 10th in the Pac 10 with 26 players. 1 of those players never made it to campus. 2 left after 1 year, and a 3rd's career was ended by injury (Mackay). One is suspended for the season, and 3 others have had season ending injuries. There were 6 JC players in this class. That leaves 19 from this class to contribute in 2009.
The class of 09 was one of our more highly rated classes, and has generated a lot of excitement. It was ranked 43rd nationally, and 7th in the Pac 10. Of the 23 players signed, 2 never made it to campus, 1 left immediately after getting here and 3 are grayshirting, 12 are redshirting leaving 5 to contribute from this class in 2009.
There's also Hoffman-Ellis, Montgomery and Jones who transferred in without signing and have contributed this season.
Out of the 75 total scholarship athletes (we've only got 75 of 85 possible due to APR issues and attrition), 27 are Doba holdovers. 64% of our current players are from the 08 and 09 recruiting classes. More than half of Doba's 36% (15) come from Doba's lowest rated class in 2007. That leaves 12 from better rated classes in 05 and 06, and 5 from the higher rated class of 09, meaning we have 17 players from our "higher" ranked classes on the field this season.
More evidence to support the argument that the talent is JUST NOT ON THE FIELD.
This FanPost does not necessarily reflect the views of the site's writers or editors, who may not have verified its accuracy. It does, however, reflect the views of this particular fan, which is just as important as the views of our writers or editors.
2 recs |
53 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
Wow.
That must have taken you quite a while. Kudos.
I know losing recruits/having guys transfer/flunk out/etc happens to every school, but damn. Some of those names you look at and just shake your head.
by playerkyle14 on Nov 12, 2009 12:00 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Good work
Who had more “talent” on the field the second game of the season…Hawaii, a WAC school that is currently 3-6, 1-5 (and yes their QB that played us was out the last 3 weeks) or WSU. The Rainbows 3 wins are vs. a DIAA school by 5, a 2-7 WAC bottom feeder by 13 and the Cougs by 18.
Remember Hawaii was up 35-3 at half time. A 1-5 WAC team was up 35-3 against the Cougs in a semi home game. The talent is bad, but I don’t think it is 35-3 at half against a WAC bottom feeder bad.
There was a day when the Cougs, no matter how bad always had a chance to win one in Pullman. Saturday is that chance. Let’s see what happens. If it is 28-0 in the first half maybe we try blamming it on something other than the lack “talent” of talent for once.
by donkeyjon12 on Nov 12, 2009 12:19 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
...
Have you even looked at Hawaii’s depth chart from game 2 to now?
by Roy Weaver Stuckey on Nov 12, 2009 12:33 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
yes i did
is your point if they had that the same team (a team that barley beat d1aa .500 club the week before) they’d be setting the world on fire and maybe be .500 in the WAC and then you could justify being down to them 35-3 at half?
or is it that the Cougs are so bad from a pure talent stand point that they shouldn’t be expected to be able to compete against WAC schools not named BSU regardless.
by donkeyjon12 on Nov 12, 2009 2:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the inexperience, plus the turnovers, explain a lot of that.
Doesn’t make it feel any better, though.
by Jeff Nusser on Nov 12, 2009 3:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
...
I was at the WSU vs Hawaii game. I was so mad I left when Hawaii scored their 5th TD. My point is the hawaii team that killed us in the first half is a lot different than the Hawaii team now so your point that Hawaii is a 3-6 team and 1-5 in the WAC is kind of pointless. If your point is taken then the Huskies should beat every big-10 team since Ohio State lost to USC and UW beat USC.
The pure numbers in that Hawaii first half are ridiculous. The Cougs’ talent and age really showed in the 1st half, not to mention how weak their d-backs are. I’m glad Nolan Washington and Jamal Atafou red-shirted and Wulff has a ton of d-backs in this new class.
by Roy Weaver Stuckey on Nov 12, 2009 4:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
but when you combine that talent with turning the ball over 7 times (5 in the first half, if I recall correctly), you will.
by TiltingRight on Nov 12, 2009 12:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
yup
Fantastic post. I have been arguing this aspect of Coug football for years- tracking the Doba groups and waring of impending doom as the dearth of upper class men would hit in ‘08 and ’09 because of the emphasis on quick signed late juco’s to drive up the rating for the class and finish up what was often a very lame attempt at recruiting in the sad years of Bill’s wife’s demise. It took three years to scuttle the greatest era in Coug football history, the 2001-2003 10 win bliss. Coug fans and alum must recognize that it will take 3 classes o reload the gun. In point of fact, I cannot count the ‘08 group as Wulff had a mere 5 weeks to gather them. So truly the ’09 class is his first— but can the fans wait until ’11 to win? Wulff’s rebuild w/ freshman is the right course but takes patience.
As for the Hawaii game jon12- the Rainbows started an experienced O-line, QB and WR’s in a spread against 7 defenders playing their 2nd NCAA games. Experience? Our corners had almost none vs. a spread. Come on… no comparison. Freshmen and juco’s play like guys who have never played- juniors ad seniors don’t. The seven interceptions mattered a little as well… we start too much inexperience- there is no substitute for years in the trenches… this squad lacks that. Go Cougs
If you can't Go Cougs... don't go.
by hollyweirdcoug on Nov 12, 2009 12:25 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
...
In 2005 we were 8th in the conference…
http://washingtonstate.scout.com/a.z?s=137&p=9&c=14&view=2&yr=2005
then click on pac-10
In 2006 we were 9th in the conference…
http://washingtonstate.scout.com/a.z?s=137&p=9&c=14&view=2&yr=2006
then click on pac-10
by Roy Weaver Stuckey on Nov 12, 2009 12:32 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Great work!
Like hollyweirdcoug said, the ‘09 class is Wulff’s first real class. I’m very very very glad that 12 are redshirting, let’s build up for the future!
Another point that was tangentially brought up in the post was loss of scholarships. I believe Wulff will get that APR issue fixed with his hard-work-ethic-message and so gaining those extra schollies back could be just as big a boost as keeping players around from previous years.
by johnnycougar on Nov 12, 2009 12:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Already fixed, if I remember right.
We’re expected to be at “full strength” in 2010.
by TiltingRight on Nov 12, 2009 12:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh good
Losing scholarships is totally unacceptable. We have enough problems with depth as it is.
by johnnycougar on Nov 12, 2009 2:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
This is incredible. I’ll be promoting it to the front page sometime this afternoon. Everyone should read this.
by Jeff Nusser on Nov 12, 2009 1:23 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I've been glancing around
at some other teams rosters… not enough to draw rock solid conclusions, but still… and I think the 64% underclassmen isn’t way outside of the normal range, but it’s near the top end. I looked at a handful of other schools, and they range from 55-65% (ballpark) underclassmen. To be expected considering injuries, transfers looking for PT, academic casualties, etc.
What seems to have killed us most this year isn’t just the 05 and 06 classes—though 12 RS Seniors, true Seniors and RS Juniors is really low—but the quality in the 07 class. A team could transition from even a couple thin classes if they stock up in a following year. Then with grayshirts/redshirts/JC’s they could put some depth together relatively quickly and those kids would be playing today as true Juniors and RS Sophs. For the Cougs, however, we follow the dearth of bodies from 05 and 06 with a dearth of talent in 07 and 08.
Based on this, I’d assume we’d have our best chance of being truely competitive (able to shock the world on any given Saturday), not in 2010 sigh, but in 2011. Which is also our earliest (best) chance to get to a bowl. 2012 (Wulff’s last contracted year) would have this 2009 class playing as true seniors and RS juniors, giving us the best chance at a top of conference finish.
by TiltingRight on Nov 12, 2009 4:22 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Agreed, it's the upperclassmen that are killing this team...
Looking at the list above there are way too many players that are listed as just “contributors”, as opposed to being an impact player. They all don’t have to be All-Conference but they can’t just be warm bodies. People have mentioned this before, but how many of our Jrs. or Srs. would play for another Pac-10 team right now? Alfred? Probably. Mattingly? Good chance, depending on the system. Anyone else? Doubtful since most are either undersized or slow. And that 07 class has a lot of guys who, quite frankly, would have trouble cracking the 2-deeps at any other P10 school. Even Anderson, who was very talented in comparison to his teammates, isn’t anything special in terms of a P10 WR.
If Wulff has improved the recruiting, we’ll see it when his guys become upperclassmen. Until then it’s just a wait and see.
by Scottie44 on Nov 12, 2009 4:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, very nice TR
Speaking from all the statistics classes that I took at WSU ages ago, for it to really have meaning, you need to do it for the rest of the Pac 10 and other conferences as well. We don’t know just how much of an anomaly this is. For all we know, this could be common to other programs or at least not out of the extreme as it seems. I am sure it is likely worse than other teams, but is it slightly bad, average bad or really bad.
If the answer is slightly bad or average bad, then we shouldn’t be losing 66-3 like WSU did against Cal last year. If it is really bad, then I would understand it better.
Every single team has players that leave, flunk out or have career ending injuries. Tilting, I expect you to have all that information by tomorrow. :) thanks
by Coug1990 on Nov 12, 2009 4:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
We must have had the same thoughts
I started looking at a handful of other teams after I posted the original shot.
by TiltingRight on Nov 12, 2009 4:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Great job
While I have my reservations about Wulff and as I have written before, they are just as much because of his off the field behavior as the on field play, I still have not given up on him. I want him to succeed the the worse way. But, that doesn’t mean that any of us cannot be critical of him either. Again, thanks for taking the time.
by Coug1990 on Nov 12, 2009 4:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Criticism is valid where it’s valid.
I just think when you combine the roster issues with the injuries, it’s more understandable how poorly the team is executing. When you consider the jump from HS to D1 is bigger than D1 to NFL, and then count up the number of noobs we put on the field, you could see disaster being one bad decision, missed tackle, missed block or missed assignment away.
Consider also, that you get better by competing, and if there aren’t many quality upperclassmen to compete against in practice, you don’t improve as much by the time you hit the field for real.
All this stuff isn’t really quantifiable, but when you look at the whole narrative, it’s not hard to understand the dressing down all these teams are giving us.
by TiltingRight on Nov 12, 2009 4:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Definitely appreciate the effort, but Coug 1990 makes the obvious point ...
… because if you just think about the numbers, a 20-25% attrition rate is required every year just to create room for you to take a whole class (pretty easy division problem). So, for any one class to suffer 50% attrition over a two year period might be unusual, but isn’t going to be groundbreakingly so – especially if the current HC thinks he has a chance to upgrade his talent or right some wrongs. This would actually not be unusual at all if JCs made up a big chunk of the recruiting class. It could, in fact, explain the entire number.
As a point of comparison, I just eyeballed the UW 2006 (nearly 50% attrition) and 2007 (about 33% attrition) classes. These were considered two of Ty’s better classes.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
by Gekko Mojo on Nov 14, 2009 12:31 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
(sigh)
I don’t know how you can even approach the argument that it’s even sort of remotely usual to 56, 50 and 61 percent of three consecutive classes out of the program after two years — especially when you consider the fact that a lot of the guys who either never made it to campus or were gone were supposed to be the good players in the classes. I would bet my house that 56, 50 and 61 are figures well beyond what any other Pac-10 school has suffered over a three-year period.
I guess I’m done with this conversation — either you’re going to believe that those three recruiting classes killed this current team, or you’re not.
by Jeff Nusser on Nov 14, 2009 7:17 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Add that attrition
to the lost of eight scholarships a year for the last two years. Not good.
CougCenter WSU's second main blog
by Dancing Football on Nov 14, 2009 8:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
(double sigh)
all I’m pointing out is that even for schools like UW who take very few JCs, a 20% attrition rate PER SEASON is not unusual if the coach wants to take in a full recruiting class the next year. If that compounds two or three years in a row, which I would consider the norm not the exception, you are looking at almost exactly a 50% attrition rate for a junior class.
You are pointing to this stat as if it is somehow a massive aberration without even considering looking at if any other programs look different. I think your problem is more accentuated because of the number of JCs you have traditionally taken, but it does not appear all that unusual of a circumstance.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
by Gekko Mojo on Nov 14, 2009 10:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And that 20 percent attrition rate PER SEASON is ideally seniors, no?
Not guys who are out of the program within two years, as these guys were?
Guess I’m not done with this conversation since I don’t even remotely understand your logic. Sure, 20 percent of your roster turns over every year, but in normal circumstances, the vast majority of those guys are seniors. That was not the case for WSU for THREE ENTIRE YEARS.
by Jeff Nusser on Nov 14, 2009 11:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
actually, no.
I apologize if my point is not coming through loud and clear. It is based on the premise that most coaches prefer to give out 24-25 scholarships a year when there is an 85 scholarship maximum for a team. You only want to give out the max number in a year if you think you can upgrade your talent .. so, the goal is not to get all of your attrition through seniors, it is to get them through losing your least important players.
Case in point, in 2006 USC had the #1 recruiting class in the nation with 24 commits. Today, only 50% of them (this should be your core of RS Juniors and Seniors) remain on that team.
I’m sorry. While I believe that the attrition described above is painful and perhaps a little exaggerated for WSU due to the injuries, I do not believe it is all that unusual.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
by Gekko Mojo on Nov 15, 2009 8:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What makes it unusual is the level of talent
You’re really going to use USC as an example?
by Jeff Nusser on Nov 15, 2009 5:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Just responding to your point
I don’t know how you can even approach the argument that it’s even sort of remotely usual to 56, 50 and 61 percent of three consecutive classes out of the program after two years — especially when you consider the fact that a lot of the guys who either never made it to campus or were gone were supposed to be the good players in the classes. I would bet my house that 56, 50 and 61 are figures well beyond what any other Pac-10 school has suffered over a three-year period.
a) I approached the argument
b) the USC “attrioned” players were from the #1 class in the nation – they were expected to be good players
c) this is just one example of how the WSU figures are NOT well beyond at least one Pac 10 school’s attrition (I used UW before). Don’t worry, you can keep your house.
d) why shouldn’t I use USC to demonstrate turnover rates of a Pac 10 school? Sure, they are awesome, but is there any reason that their attrition rate should somehow be greater than that of the typical Pac 10 school?
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
by Gekko Mojo on Nov 16, 2009 7:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You've only cited one class
I’ll be happy to entertain your argument when you can demonstrate this happening over the course of three consecutive years to a school that’s been able to sustain success. So far, you’ve used one class at USC and two classes at UW (which, by the way, didn’t have the same level of attrition over those two years anyway).
by Jeff Nusser on Nov 16, 2009 5:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ok - I've presented the math and I've demonstrated some classes..
… to denote why this kind of attrition really is not that unusual. You have not attempted to do any such comparison, so I am left to conclude that you really like this theory. No reason for me to attack it further. Touche.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
by Gekko Mojo on Nov 17, 2009 6:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, you're the one who challenged the theory
The burden’s on you, not on us.
by Jeff Nusser on Nov 17, 2009 6:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
In the scientific method ...
… it is usually those who put forth the theory who are responsible for conducting the experiments to prove or disprove it. While I enjoy the debate, its pretty clear you want to hold on to this one no matter what.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
by Gekko Mojo on Nov 18, 2009 6:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Does this look like a journal review?
We probably wouldn’t hold onto it if it was clear this was way off base. But you haven’t really presented much significant contrary evidence.
Maybe TitlingRight will put us both out of our misery and do the research. I only wish I had the time.
by Jeff Nusser on Nov 18, 2009 12:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm planning on it
but I don’t have the time I had when I did the original research. My curiosity’s been piqued ever since I started glancing at some other teams, though.
My initial, quickie-looksie suggests that while we’re not ridiculously outside a “normal range,” it’s on the high end as far as attrition.
I’ll do up another fanpost when I get the chance. Business seems to be coming to a grinding halt for me here pretty quick, so I might be able to get it done around cr-apple cup. We’ll see.
by TiltingRight on Nov 18, 2009 5:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I would agree that WSU is on the upper end of a normal range
… and this would seem to be the case because of the preponderance of JCs that seem to fill out your roster.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
by Gekko Mojo on Nov 19, 2009 10:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It hasn't always been that way with JCs
Just a lot towards the end of Doba’s tenure.
by Jeff Nusser on Nov 19, 2009 12:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
at least you guys can get them in...
… UW can get one out of four in.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
by Gekko Mojo on Nov 19, 2009 8:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
USC's loss this weekend really highlights how attrition is bad
And not how it’s good. Yes, USC is still amongst the class of the conference. And losing players early doesn’t kill them. But it does hurt them, as a team that was consistently a national title contender is not this year as they play true freshmen QB’s and other younger players.
by 02Coug on Nov 16, 2009 10:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Three things
1) Just as Nuss mentioned, it’s not just those two classes, it’s three. Also, 50% and 56% is bigger than 50% and 33%, without including the 61% from the following year.
2) One of my follow-up posts mentions that the heaviest attrition comes from the highest rated classes, and that the sophs and RS frosh playing today are from the lowest rated (talent) classes. That has a major impact on the talent level on the field as well.
3) If UW has a similar situation roster wise, it seems that would help the argument, rather than hurt it, as the UW is not good this year, and is coming off a (as if I need to remind you) winless season. In fact, as mentioned elsewhere, if Locker doesn’t start the year, how many wins do you think you have this season? I-D-AHO….
by TiltingRight on Nov 14, 2009 12:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You did all this research to come to the conclusion...
That there’s no talent on the field? Wow, just go back and watch any game this season.
by ReidForrest4Heisman on Nov 12, 2009 4:48 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Yep,
I wanted to be able to bring more to the table than “There’s no talent on the field. Just go back and watch any game this season.”
by TiltingRight on Nov 12, 2009 4:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It is important to realize what Wullf inherited a weak program.
Attrition is inevitable, but Doba and his staff were recruiting unreliable low level talent that has crippled this current team. TiltingRight shows further evidence that we need to see Wullf out on his recruits. If only a handful of juniors and seniors are making an impact on the team right now and have the same talent level as some true freshman, then Wullf should be judged in the next two years—not right now.
Plus, I really appreciate the in depth research TiltingRight put into this post. It is nice to know why we are struggling from a recruiting standpoint.
by JimtheCoug on Nov 12, 2009 5:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
ReidForrest4Heisman.....
What was the point of this post?
by mmevans15 on Nov 12, 2009 6:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What is striking
To me the “hypothetical” team that we could be watching.
Arkelon Hall as our starting QB (and I remember being excited about his ability to scramble, something Wulff could use). Tardy and Woolridge in the backfield.
Some 5th year seniors playing DB, with juniors and sophomores (RS) on the 2 deep and playing nickel and dime. Boy, experience in the defensive backfield would make a difference.
And then some offensive and defensive lineman. What this makes clear to me is that the previous staff were lax on certain standards. Players with good academics need not apply. Support for those players coming in with academic/behavior issues seems to be nonexistant.
If we are to rebuild, we must have a program that values players that will take advantage of the opportunity and we must support these young boys as they grow into men.
by 02Coug on Nov 12, 2009 5:26 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Amen!
What makes recruiting to Pullman difficult and special is the commitment and character REALLY matter. My pastor was telling me about when he used to host a weekly bible study with Jason David, Drew Bledsoe, and a few offensive linemen. Whether you are religious or not, those legendary players cared more about their character than many of the recruits of the past years who spent their time flunking out and getting arrested. Though WSU has always had wash outs, great teams are usually founded on young men who aren’t fickle primadonnas. I hope that Wullf’s recruits can stick it through the losses and grow up to be successful men of character. That is the hope anyways.
by JimtheCoug on Nov 12, 2009 5:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Arkelon Hall
Hall was benched this year after the 2nd game of the year and has only made one appearance since. This is for a struggling and underachieving Memphis team. Makes you wonder, would Hall (a 5th year senior who couldn’t keep his starting job for Memphis) even be our quarterback right now had he stayed in the program?
by mmevans15 on Nov 12, 2009 7:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Good Point, and Probably not
Although I would also say that Hall might be a different player/person if he had been able to stay at WSU. Simply because staying would mean he made good choices, and for a QB flunking out of school shows (at least to me) both a lack of discipline and a lack of leadership ability. He was redshirting, so he didn’t travel, but apparently didn’t take advantage of that very well.
It’s a moot point, as who the player might have been had he been guided better during his early years is completely hypothetical. But he seemed to have talent, if not the solid head on his shoulders to do what he might have with that talent.
by 02Coug on Nov 12, 2009 8:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
character
Regarding character and sending that message to the team- I noted and agreed w/ the zeal in which most Coug fans applauded Wulff’s decision to cut away Pellum and Giles. They both would have started at corner by the way, a senior and junior, and Willis who also got booted was playing well after shifting over from WR to DB. Then Tyree Toomer who had played well at safety in the last couple games of ‘08 (had a good Apple Cup) went down for the year w/ injury. All just before the season opened. It is important to note that those vets who got kicked off had taken a majority of the reps at the corner slots. As we watch the young ones get turned and burned, I often think of the SIX ’05 DB’s who washed out. And of course wonder what might have been if Tyree wasn’t hurt and these others had behaved themselves and were adding vet play to the secondary, and much needed depth. As we see punchy Blount returned to action for the Ducks and hear of mild suspensions for other squads for conduct unbecoming to the team… I grit my teeth and tell myself Wulff is doing it right this time…
If you can't Go Cougs... don't go.
by hollyweirdcoug on Nov 12, 2009 7:32 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
It all starts from coaching maturity
even our terrible coaches (Holmoe, Gilbertson) generally have been pretty good with teaching the players maturity, and committment. So when we get a pretty good coach, the players are ready to play well. Thats part of a turn around. The second part of a long term turnaround is honest recruiting. Don’t tell a kid you’ll be a star, tell them they have a chance to play against the biggest teams in big situations IF they work their f*n tails off.
Go Bears Go
by Rocksanddirt on Nov 19, 2009 12:54 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Community Guidelines
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
