The scores have improved, but how has the team improved?
by Craig Powers on Nov 2, 2009 1:30 PM PST
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PrintHeading into this football season, it was obvious that the Cougs had a long way to go to become competitive after a historically terrible 2008. An average margin of negative 37.0 against FBS opponents meant that even dramatic improvements would not guarantee any wins. So far in 2009, the scores have definitely gotten closer, with the average margin down to negative 22.4. Two touchdowns a game is significant, but how exactly has it happened and can some credit be given to Paul Wulff and his coaching staff? Take a look at these statistics comparing the 2008 Cougs (against FBS competition) and the 2009 Cougs:
| 2008 WSU vs. FBS Opponents | 2008 FBS Opponents |
2009 WSU | 2009 Opponents | |
| PPG | 9.75 | 46.75 | 15.0 | 37.4 |
| YPC | 2.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 5.7 |
| YPP | 3.5 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 7.3 |
| TO/game | 2.8 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 3.0 |
| T.O.P. | 27:23 | 32.37 | 27:34 | 32:26 |
| Red Zone Scoring% | 72% | 88% | 74% | 74% |
| Penalties/game | 7.0 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 7.5 |
There are a lot of statistical similarities between this season and last. The run offense and run defense are almost identical in yards per carry averages. The time of possession has not changed at all and the penalties are similar. The offense has definitely improved, averaging almost a yard better per play. However, that is negated by the fact that the defense is even worse per play than it was last year (Who knew that was possible?).
So the defense still can't stop anybody and the offense still struggles to move the ball. Why are the scores improving? The two statistics that jump out as having had the most impact in Washington State's shrunken margins of defeat are turnovers and red zone defense.
The Cougs have gone from turning the ball over twice more than their opponents per game in 2008 to having an advantage in the turnover department in 2009. Some of that can be attributed to luck, WSU has been able to pick up 12 of the 19 opponent fumbles this season versus getting only 2 out of 16 fumbles last season. The positive there is that they have already forced more fumbles in eight games this season than the twelve against FBS competition last year. The defense is also making more plays in the passing game. Two of those plays, interceptions by Myron Beck and Alex Hoffman-Ellis, have played a huge role in the scoring average jump for WSU. There is no doubt that these guys are visibly stronger than last season, and that factor in forcing turnovers cannot be ignored.
The defense in the red zone can be directly related to the drop in scoring by opponents. The Cougs have already made as many red zone stops (nine) as they did all of last year against FBS competition, and that is in 38 less opportunities. It has been brought up in the past on this site and most people would agree that the tackling on the defense has much improved. Solid tackling in the red zone can cure a lot of problems. Washington State is clearly slower than most of the offenses it has faced, but speed isn't as important in the red zone, and the ability to tackle soundly is essential for a "bend-don't-break" defense.
So the Cougs are a little luckier, a little stronger, and a little better at tackling than last year. This has been good for a two touchdown improvement. Head Coach Paul Wulff and his staff have taken a lot of criticism this season, but some credit has to be given to them on those last two points. Wulff has preached the importance of better conditioning and mentioned several times that he was shocked at the lack of fundamentals he saw in spring camp last season. Maybe these improvements can give some hope that if this staff can get their players on the field and build some depth in recruiting, this dark era in Cougar football can soon end.
Of course, they could go out and lose 63-7 this weekend and make me look silly.
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To praise Wulff for heading this team in the right direction. Fire him! Please! Soon! Enough is Enough! It’s like watching a kid do Meth for 2 years hoping he’ll learn to quit within the next 2, before you try and do something. Just sad.
And once again...
Who do we get right now who could possibly replace him? Do you have the money for the buyout? Why must we always overreact after big losses? Please remember, Notre Dame was a ranked team, and we basically had a second string out there against them.
It seems to me like people have gotten this thought in their heads that freshmen and sophomores can go out and compete against juniors and seniors. I don’t care if you are the greatest coach on earth, you can’t coach speed and size.
by displacedcoug on Nov 2, 2009 2:20 PM PST up reply actions
Craig has put up statistics that show the team is indeed improved
You’ve done nothing but come around here and scream with all your fancy exclamation points that Wulff should be fired. You’ve presented no rational arguments for your position, and you’ve given no constructive solutions. Exactly which Cal and which Oregon assistant would you like to go after? What kind of a contract do you think it’s going to take? How do you propose we pay for buying out Wulff’s contract?
Perhaps you should take a moment and (re)read our Community Guidelines to see how you can constructively contribute to discussions.
Wulff
I may be way wrong here, but I think a lot of the “Fire Wulff NOW” conversation stems from this underlying frustration/opinion held by Wulff critics that both our previous administration and athletic director have royally messed up. (Letting Price go, not building our stadium earlier, signing Doba to an extension, then firing him, etc.) It seems this frustration culminated when we hired a “nobody” and seemingly didn’t try to hire back Price (I’m not sure if we actually looked his way or not).
In many ways I consider myself to have been of that thought. But now, we are where we are. We are noticeably better than last year and there are some glimmers of hope. So while I think we are all not totally sure if Wulff can coach at the Pac-10 level, we are financially obligated to see if he can, for a full 5 years. And frankly, if he can, he will be the best hire ever. He will never leave us for something better. Here’s hoping he can coach.
This sums up my thoughts
I was pretty upset in 2004 when we weren’t able to get back to a bowl game. Even more upset in ’05 and saw it all slipping away in ’06. The frustration people have is letting a HUGE opportunity go out the door. As you say though it is what it is at his point.
We are in a mess because of those years after the Holiday Bowl. We are in a mess because we went away from the model that brought us a good program. Now we have to dig out of it. I wasn’t very happy with the Wulff hire but he has showed he can see talent and recruit. The jury is still out for me on whether he can coach it up and whether he is a good game day coach. I honestly don’t know the answer to that question. He deserves a couple full classes on the field before judgment is passed.
I am giving him time. I would like to see them compete in most games next year. I really don’t know if that is possible at this point.
"Nobody"
I agree he was a “nobody” coach to 99% of the sports world because of where he was coaching at the time. I remember looking at the list of coaching prospects and having Wulff close to the top of my list. I think a lot of people are forgetting why he got the job, his body of work at Eastern was impressive. If you think recruiting to Pullman is hard, drive through EWU’s campus. As someone said earlier, we still don’t know if he can coach at a level needed to make it in the pac-10 but, if he can then I think he is a perfect fit for us.
Obviously you couldn’t find anyone worse than Wulff to rebuild under. I’d go after any Oregon or USC or Cal assistant that would take the job.
No one could be worse?
Maybe you would like Doba back? Where is the guarantee that any Oregon, Cal, or USC assistant would be affordable, willing to take the job, or any better than Wulff right now? Maybe he isn’t be a good coach, but we won’t know until he isn’t playing against a stacked deck. When his players are running his system, then we can decide if we should go hunting for a new coach.
by displacedcoug on Nov 2, 2009 2:44 PM PST up reply actions
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by Craig Powers on Nov 2, 2009 3:26 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
How can that be proven?
I can think of worse. How about a coach that would have come in and recruited all JCs as a quick fix? What about hiring a guy like Erickson that comes in, turns around the program, and then bolts leaving it in a mess?
I don’t know if Wulff is the answer but I’m sure pulling for the guy. He’s going out and trying to build around HS guys and guys from our own state (unlike the previous staff that seemed to ignore talent right in our own backyard). And I find it very hard to examine his “schemes” when I realize he has probably the worst OL and DL in the freaking country…something that is almost 100% attributable to the recruiting failures of the previous staff.
Wulff will sink or swim depending on whether or not he’s able to put together average offensive and defensive lines. Right now, our OL and DLs are made up of Freshman and Sophs with no experience, or upperclassmen that, in all truthfullness, just aren’t that great (aside from Alfred). If Wulff is able to build decent lines, he’ll likely succeed in getting the program to an acceptable level. If he can’t, I would guess he’ll be gone. But we won’t know this answer until next year or the year after.
I hear Robin Pflugrad is available
from the Ducks. He did a stellar job as the recruiting coordinator under Doba. All those juniors and seniors you DON’T see playing out there… you can thank him. But yeah, he’d be WAY better than Wulff
/sarcasm
We learned what NOT to do under him
You know, that whole parlay the 10 win seasons into 5 star recruits while forgetting to recruit the kind of kids that got you there. Yeah, that worked. One thing you can say about Wulff is he’s recruiting the right players for Pullman and WSU
Sample Size.
I think the thing every Wulff hater is failing to realize is how small the sample size is. I’ve always been a fan of letting a guy get his own players in his own system. Last year, he abandoned his system for one that the players recruited by a previous regime could run. Will “his players” be able to run his system in a few years? Time will tell. But I know one thing; it’s hard to make a cake if you have the wrong ingredients.
I might be the most impatient person in the history of Jesus and even I’m preaching patience.
conflicted
I am not entirely convinced Wulff can do the job we need him to. I’d probably put myself more in the doubter camp. and yet…
I DO NOT think he should be fired (however, if we go 1-11 or 2-10 next year I think he probably should be fired or at least some major shakeups with the rest of the staff).
the thing I wonder about is if his being a Coug alum played more of a role in him getting the job then it should have. i.e. did we pass on someone else who may have been a better choice because Wulff’s an alum and we felt some sense of loyalty to him and felt comforted that he wouldn’t leave after 5 years? we’ll probably never know, but i’d hate to think we passed on someone who would have been better(the guy coaching at Houston now comes to mind) just because they weren’t an alum.
Sumlin at Houston
Would have been a good hire, but I seriously doubt the results right now would be any different. He still brings in a new system. He still has players too small, too slow and with bad attitudes in 08. He still has to rebuild through recruiting, buying in and getting the kids to do the work in the offseason.
Wulff might be the worst experiment WSU ever thought of. He might be the best thing since Lone Star Dietz. Chances are he’s somewhere in between. Bottom line is, until he’s got players he’s recruited and fully developed playing we just can’t evaluate completely. And unless someone wants to pony up the dough to pay for Doba, Wulff AND whoever the new coach is, we’re going to have to give him the time to find out.
win/loss
win / loss ration is theonly meaningful number… all the other numbers are “sales” spin. if wsu starts next year – like the last two… then turn out the lights! we still are losing and may not win a pac-10 game this year.
( the loss of $$ to the program & the school ) will generate pressue for chg next year -too)
W/L are the bottom line
no doubt about it. We’re just not competitive this year. I fell into the trap and believed we’d be so much better that we’d compete and sneak up on someone THIS year. Clearly, I was drunk. REALLY drunk. In retrospect, after last year, I had NO reason to think that’d be the case.
That said, there are all kinds of metrics that go into winning. By almost every one of them, the team has improved dramatically from last year. Clearly, that’s a very LOW bar, but we have to start somewhere. We’ll be young team again next year, too. That means it probably won’t look pretty from a W/L perspective, again. But I DO expect us to improve over this year. The gap should close on each and every metric. That makes us more competitive.
It is what it is.
I definitely worry about losing fan support (even more) as the losses rack up.
Fan support
Not worried about it at all. There are people like me and most of the people on this site that are true blue Coug fans that will continue to be fans no matter what the situation is. Then you have the people that may give up because of a couple down years but, these are the same people that will jump right back on when things pick up. Then those same people will complain and jump off the wagon when we go into another funk. Team success is cyclical, that goes for every school, and every team has the fans that come and go with the tide. That’s why I don’t worry about the fan support. And to be honest, I think WSU probably has the highest percentage of fans that fall in the category that most of us do.
The problem is
Many of the fans that fit into that hardcore category don’t donate. That’s the issue.
Cyclical
Everyone takes their turn as the doormat. Look how bleak things were for Stanford just a few years ago.
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