Why the Apple Cup might be closer than people think

by Jeff Nusser on Nov 27, 2009 3:00 PM PST

We know all the reasons why the Cougs are going to get killed on Saturday -- Washington is much improved and has Jake Locker while the Cougs are terrible and play awful on the road ... blah, blah, blah.

Looking for a reason why the Cougs might actually be able to stay well within the approximately 24-point spread tomorrow? Here's the best one I could find.

For all the problems we have defensively, I maintain that the Cougs' biggest issue is the generally non-existent nature of the offense. WSU is currently averaging 4.2 yards per play, tied for 117th nationally. To stay in a game, you simply must be able to score some points, both for the obvious reason that you have to score points to win, but also to give your defense a fighting chance to stay fresh.

Our top three offensive performances -- in terms of yards per play -- were against Cal, Stanford and Hawaii. In fact, here's a look at how we've done against the four worst defenses we've faced:

Team	Natl. Rank, YPP	Season YPP Allowed	YPP Allowed to WSU
Stanford	t-94	5.9	5.5
Hawaii	t-94	5.9	5.2
SMU	t-72	5.6	3.9
Notre Dame	t-99	6.1	4.2
Washington	t-111	6.6	?

The common thread in the Stanford and Hawaii games? The offense was at relatively full strength -- it wasn't until after that Hawaii game that guys started dropping like flies. Additionally, although the SMU overall YPP was low, the offense was good enough to slice through the Mustangs for a game-tying touchdown at the end of regulation. Notre Dame is the outlier, of course -- the offensive line was completely decimated, and there was just no chance there.

But now? The offensive line is as healthy as it's been since that Hawaii game -- concussion to B.J. Guerra notwithstanding -- and the Huskies are statistically the worst defense the Cougs have faced all year. For all the money Nick Holt is being paid, he's still working with a defense full of young guys who make a ton of mistakes.

Additionally, the WSU offense is once again being led by Kevin Lopina, who isn't very good, but he hasn't generally been really bad, either. And it can't hurt that he beat Washington last year. As much as we love Jeff Tuel, of all the quarterbacks on the roster, Lopina is the least likely to be flustered by the crowd in Seattle.

The inescapable truth for Husky fans is that Washington has held just two opponents to less than 6.4 yards per play this season, and while WSU probably will be the third, there remains a substantial chance the Cougs will exceed their season average enough that they're able to move the ball with some consistency.

And if they can do that? They've got a fighting chance.

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Comments

Yep – what gives WSU a chance in this game is the Husky defense, or lack thereof. Our secondary hasn’t played very well, and our D-line has been terrible at getting pressure on the QB, even when the LB’s come on blitzes. If your O-line can protect Lopina, Karstetter & Simone are going to find room to catch the ball. We don’t give up many long plays – our secondary generally plays very conservative zones, trying to keep plays in front of them – but it allows offenses to stay on the field for a while and drive downfield. We tend to stiffen up some in the Red Zone (like most defenses do), but the Cougs could put up 400 yards of offense.

The big question in my mind is turnovers – if the Cougs win the turnover battle, they have a shot.

That said, Washington should be able to run all over the Cougs behind Chris Polk & Jake Locker, setting up the play-action passing game Sarkisian loves. But some big turnovers and winning the special teams battle could keep the Cougs in the game.

by kirkd on Nov 27, 2009 3:38 PM PST reply actions

replay of the 92 snow game on fsn just started on fsn

by spencer peaty on Nov 27, 2009 4:04 PM PST reply actions

Is it on FSN?

CougCenter

by Jeff Nusser on Nov 27, 2009 5:02 PM PST up reply actions

Yep, just about over.

I believe ‘96 was on last night, I DVR’d it but have not watched it yet.

by DCinSEA on Nov 27, 2009 5:48 PM PST up reply actions

haha, mobile comments

by spencer peaty on Nov 28, 2009 9:51 AM PST up reply actions

The Cougs have a chance if...?

The Cougs can win this game if Washington comes out flat and turns the ball over on offense giving the Cougar offense a short field to take advantage of early in the game. The key to beating WSU all year has been jumping all over them in the first quarter. If Washington keeps WSU in the game by self destructing on offense ala Oregon State the Cougs could surprise.

All that being said I don’t expect it to happen. If UW keeps giving the ball to Polk they will march down the field which will open up the passing lanes for Locker. This is the Apple Cup however and things go the way you expect.

by John Berkowitz on Nov 28, 2009 8:12 AM PST reply actions