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Around SBN: NFL Week One: Previews and Predictions for all 15 games

OPEN GAME THREAD: Washington State vs. Nicholls State

WSU

Moore
Capers
Thompson
Lodwick
Casto

NSU

Bose
Carter
Iles
Hunter
Ward

Nicholls State is from Thibadoux, Louisiana. They are the Colonels, but unlike Sanders do not fry up delicious, crispy fried chicken. They are 0-6, having just lost to Alaska-Anchorage, and having played poorly throughout most of their other games. Yet Vegas only has the Cougs on the board as 14 point favorites, so hold your horses if you're expecting total domination.

Player to watch out for: Anatoly Bose. The 6'6", 200 lb. guard/forward out of Australia is a matchup problem for the Cougars and Nicholls State's leader in points and minutes. If the Cougars are upset tonight, expect him to play a big role.

X-Factor: DeAngelo Casto. Can the Cougar big man shake off a couple bad rebounding games and secure the defensive boards? Can he score enough to take the pressure off Klay Thompson and Reggie Moore? We'll find out.

The Cougars win if... They dominate FT rate against a less athletic squad, and keep the rebounding battle at least even. If they can't do that, they'll need another hot shooting night by Klay to advance to the finals.

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Just FYI

When you’re looking up the odds on covers.com, or Yahoo, or wherever, technically you’re not looking at lines from casinos. I’m sure the point spreads that online bookmakers use are for the most part similar to what you’d see at the Bellagio or Caesars or wherever, but going to bodog.com and looking at their lines is not Vegas.

by evanr on Nov 27, 2009 6:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Also, I'm sure everyone knows this, but

Point spreads don’t reflect what the oddsmakers truly believe will be the outcome of the game, only what they think will get an equal amount of money on each side. People underrate WSU for whatever reason, so even against the hapless Colonels the line might be a little low based on the “true” odds for the game.

by evanr on Nov 27, 2009 6:02 PM PST up reply actions  

To be fair, only 2 casinos set a spread

Harrahs/rio/caesar’s book and LVSC Open. Both have it sitting around 14.

Another fun fact is Houston is favored by 3 over USD

by Brian Floyd on Nov 27, 2009 6:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Ho-Hum

Nice cut, nice dish, nice finish, and nice swat on the other end

by Brian Floyd on Nov 27, 2009 6:07 PM PST reply actions  

The announcer thinks it's important Nichols State gets off to a good start

Great insight about a team that hasn’t won yet. They may not play well from behind.

by 02Coug on Nov 27, 2009 6:08 PM PST reply actions  

The hell was that buzzer?

I think I heard that in the Bennett era. Does that mean the shot clock expired? That we defended for 35 seconds?

by Brian Floyd on Nov 27, 2009 6:09 PM PST reply actions  

I feel like I am watching an 8-bit video game

I can’t even tell which players are which. Casto is the one with the headband, right?

by JimtheCoug on Nov 27, 2009 6:09 PM PST reply actions  

Capers is all over the place.

Granted the block was a result of him turning it over, but still.

by 02Coug on Nov 27, 2009 6:09 PM PST reply actions  

The graphics

Reminds me of Prime Sports Northwest, like watching the old Apple Cups that they are replaying. Holy cow.

Casto is looking good!

by DCinSEA on Nov 27, 2009 6:10 PM PST reply actions  

First shot of the game?

That was Klay’s second shot, boys

by Brian Floyd on Nov 27, 2009 6:12 PM PST reply actions  

They run offenses that are similar?

News to the announcing team….EVERYONE USES BACKDOOR CUTS!

by Brian Floyd on Nov 27, 2009 6:13 PM PST reply actions  

is it smokey in there

by hightimes on Nov 27, 2009 6:31 PM PST reply actions  

Casto needs to step up

2nd game in a row he is just putting up weak stuff and not trying very hard on the boards. He should be dominating inside in these two games. Maybe he is just mad that they can’t get his name right.

http://wsufoundation.wsu.edu/giving/enteramount.asp?Fund=Martin%20Stadium%20Project

by selahcoug on Nov 27, 2009 6:34 PM PST reply actions  

I think the pack defense

was better at guarding the 3 than this. I thought that was Bone’s whole reason for changing up the D? I think they give up more threes than anyone I have seen.

Porter is going to light us up.

http://wsufoundation.wsu.edu/giving/enteramount.asp?Fund=Martin%20Stadium%20Project

by selahcoug on Nov 27, 2009 6:38 PM PST reply actions  

ARE YOI KIDDING ME!!!!!!!!!

We are down 7 to a team thats 0-6 and losing by an average of almost 25 points a game!!!!!

by spokanecougar on Nov 27, 2009 6:40 PM PST reply actions  

*YOU

so pissed i cannot type straight

by spokanecougar on Nov 27, 2009 6:40 PM PST up reply actions  

defence looks chesey

by hightimes on Nov 27, 2009 6:40 PM PST reply actions  

Is that a Motum sighting?

http://wsufoundation.wsu.edu/giving/enteramount.asp?Fund=Martin%20Stadium%20Project

by selahcoug on Nov 27, 2009 6:41 PM PST reply actions  

Why not

nobody else seems to want to play

by spokanecougar on Nov 27, 2009 6:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Right you are

I am glad to see him finally get in there.

http://wsufoundation.wsu.edu/giving/enteramount.asp?Fund=Martin%20Stadium%20Project

by selahcoug on Nov 27, 2009 6:43 PM PST up reply actions  

I like the idea

But Marcus cannot dunk on 4 guys at once.

by Brian Floyd on Nov 27, 2009 6:42 PM PST reply actions  

Motum on the board

http://wsufoundation.wsu.edu/giving/enteramount.asp?Fund=Martin%20Stadium%20Project

by selahcoug on Nov 27, 2009 6:43 PM PST reply actions  

What a horrible first half

Bone better make some adjustments and get them to play some better D

by spokanecougar on Nov 27, 2009 6:46 PM PST reply actions  

Wow.

No ball security anymore.

http://wsufoundation.wsu.edu/giving/enteramount.asp?Fund=Martin%20Stadium%20Project

by selahcoug on Nov 27, 2009 6:46 PM PST reply actions  

I hope Bone rips these guys a new one at halftime

and lets Ben Johnson bring back the D.

http://wsufoundation.wsu.edu/giving/enteramount.asp?Fund=Martin%20Stadium%20Project

by selahcoug on Nov 27, 2009 6:48 PM PST reply actions  

Wasn't that why he kept Johnson

To make sure we kept the some of the same principles on D. So far this year Bone’s defense kind of sucks. What happens when we play better teams?

by spokanecougar on Nov 27, 2009 6:53 PM PST up reply actions  

He's screwing with his rotation n the first half

What did he find out? That everything outside of his starting five is useless right now

by Brian Floyd on Nov 27, 2009 6:48 PM PST reply actions  

Is Capers the leading scroing right now?

http://wsufoundation.wsu.edu/giving/enteramount.asp?Fund=Martin%20Stadium%20Project

by selahcoug on Nov 27, 2009 6:49 PM PST reply actions  

Scorer that is.

http://wsufoundation.wsu.edu/giving/enteramount.asp?Fund=Martin%20Stadium%20Project

by selahcoug on Nov 27, 2009 6:49 PM PST up reply actions  

Nicholls State

They almost shot more 3-pointers then we did FGs…only three shy

by crimson coug on Nov 27, 2009 6:49 PM PST reply actions  

The negacoug in me is going nuts

But it’s only one half. There better be some improvement. Now.

by Grady Clapp on Nov 27, 2009 6:57 PM PST via mobile reply actions  

Its understandable why

That was about the worse half of basketball I have seen from this team since the early years of Dick Bennett

by spokanecougar on Nov 27, 2009 6:59 PM PST up reply actions  

The only reason we're losing is because of the turnovers

But even if we were taking care of the ball the way we normally do, the only reason it would even be close is because our defense is terrible. It’s not a scheme thing. It’s an effort thing. They’re not fighting hard through screens, they’re not moving their feet when man-to-man, and they’re not ready to get out on shooters.

Until Bone starts demanding more effort from his defenders, this is what we’re going to get.

by Jeff Nusser on Nov 27, 2009 6:59 PM PST reply actions  

The halftime don't turn the ball over speech worked wonders

COME ON YOU IDIOTS TAKE CARE OF THE DAMN BALL. YOU’RE NOT THE FOOTBALL TEAM

by Brian Floyd on Nov 27, 2009 7:04 PM PST reply actions  

why is it so smokey

by hightimes on Nov 27, 2009 7:04 PM PST reply actions  

Thank god for Nik

the announcer trying to say his name always makes me laugh

by spokanecougar on Nov 27, 2009 7:04 PM PST reply actions  

capers lock is broke , boy took him to the wood shed

by hightimes on Nov 27, 2009 7:06 PM PST reply actions  

I almost bought tickets to go up there

I probably would be on the court screaming at the team for their play right now

by spokanecougar on Nov 27, 2009 7:08 PM PST reply actions  

Nik...way play big guy

That’s the kind of senior leadership we need. Come in and make some good passes.

by 02Coug on Nov 27, 2009 7:09 PM PST reply actions  

im fellin a rush guys

by hightimes on Nov 27, 2009 7:10 PM PST reply actions  

finally

nice to see us play like we are a pac-10 team again

by spokanecougar on Nov 27, 2009 7:18 PM PST reply actions  

hahaha

the smoke is in your house man

by spokanecougar on Nov 27, 2009 7:24 PM PST up reply actions  

why we switch line ups , killin my buzz

by hightimes on Nov 27, 2009 7:22 PM PST reply actions  

Seriously, Klay is carrying the squard

Forced the TO and got to the line on the other end

by Brian Floyd on Nov 27, 2009 7:24 PM PST reply actions  

I was never really worried

I was just joking earlier. Joking, yeah, that’s it.

by Grady Clapp on Nov 27, 2009 7:24 PM PST via mobile reply actions  

Need Lodwick or Harthun

to actually hit some shots in a game.

by selahcoug on Nov 27, 2009 7:27 PM PST reply actions  

Speak of the devil

Layup then takes a charge. Can you do that to the rest of the team?

by Brian Floyd on Nov 27, 2009 7:31 PM PST up reply actions  

I'll do my best.

But I am still waiting on Lodwick.

by selahcoug on Nov 27, 2009 7:32 PM PST up reply actions  

Nice ball movement

That’s what the offense should look like

by Brian Floyd on Nov 27, 2009 7:30 PM PST reply actions  

fellin another rush, i hope

by hightimes on Nov 27, 2009 7:33 PM PST reply actions  

whooooooooooooooooooooooooooh

by hightimes on Nov 27, 2009 7:37 PM PST reply actions  

This team plays lazy D

Try to reach from behind for the steal and block after the guy blows by them. Someone needs to re-instill the work ethic. I say return to the hill and run till you puke so you aren’t too tired to play some real D.

by selahcoug on Nov 27, 2009 7:56 PM PST reply actions  

Somewhat agree

Our defense has been atrocious this year and this game really I think highlighted how poorly this team plays defense. Bone needs to tighten somethings up and fast or this is going to be a very very very long season.

by spokanecougar on Nov 27, 2009 7:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Well

The good: We won and are playing for the championship
The bad: Everything else
The ugly: The venue and announcers

by Brian Floyd on Nov 27, 2009 7:57 PM PST reply actions  

Ken Bone does not want to talk to you.

He is going to talk to Kopraveeza and Castro.

by JimtheCoug on Nov 27, 2009 7:58 PM PST reply actions  

Apparently God has an 800 number

At least according to the commercial I just saw

by Brian Floyd on Nov 27, 2009 8:05 PM PST reply actions  

that was a weird commerical

was that an Alaska ad? Never seen anything like that here

by spokanecougar on Nov 27, 2009 8:07 PM PST up reply actions  

Must have been

That was just odd and a bit creepy

by Brian Floyd on Nov 27, 2009 8:07 PM PST up reply actions  

Nice to see 4 players in double fig's

Name FGM-A PF Pts
K. Thompson 7-14, 21pts
D. Casto 8-10, 18pts
R. Moore 3-4, 14pts
M. Capers 2-3, 10pts
N. Koprivica 3-4, 9pts

I’m surprised Nik is hitting 9pts worth of baskets?! I used to cringe when he was (1) was in the game, or (2) had the ball…

by HugeBoobs on Nov 27, 2009 8:09 PM PST reply actions  

He looks damn good so far

He was making good cuts, passes, and getting to the rim. He also hit one from outside

by Brian Floyd on Nov 27, 2009 8:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Is the offense even up tempo??

Look at the shot attempts, they are very comparable last years non conference games. And just from watching the game, I don’t see much of a tempo being established, which is why teams hang around on us. I hope we look better tomorrow.

by MattPD on Nov 27, 2009 8:20 PM PST up reply actions  

I dont wanna run the numbers right now

But yes, it is faster. NSU tried to control tempo and we still put up almost 80, too

by Brian Floyd on Nov 27, 2009 8:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Alright well based on shot attempts here we go

2008
1-MVS 47
2-FDU 53
3-SSU 59
4-CAN 59
5-MSU 58

55.2

2009
1-MVS 64
2-EWU 50
3-IPFW 59
4-UAA 53
5- NSU -44

Avg. 54

Not a big difference to me…

by MattPD on Nov 27, 2009 8:35 PM PST up reply actions  

Shot attempts doesn't equal tempo, though

We had much more possessions today but had turnovers , etc. Need to look at number of possessions instead of number of shot attempts.

by Brian Floyd on Nov 27, 2009 8:46 PM PST up reply actions  

From Kenpom

Adjusted Tempo:
2009: 58.7 340
2010: 65.2 282
Adjusted Efficiency:
2009: 104.4 121 87.6 6
2010: 119.5 15 115.8 321
Offense left Defense right.

So, we’re playing faster and are more efficient on offense but OH MY GOD on defense

by Brian Floyd on Nov 27, 2009 8:50 PM PST up reply actions  

The "linked" numbers are rank

And these don’t include tonights game

by Brian Floyd on Nov 27, 2009 8:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Well

I guess I’m crazy then because TO+Shot Attempts come out near equal as well. I know Kenpom is god to a lot of people, but I don’t have his equation to how he calculates tempo, so those numbers don’t mean a lot to me.

by MattPD on Nov 27, 2009 8:57 PM PST up reply actions  

Forgetting FT's, too. Here:

Tempo: We can estimate possessions very well from box score stats by using this formula: FGA-OR+TO+0.475xFTA.
For each team, possessions are counted for the team and their opponents, and then averaged. A team’s average tempo is total possessions divided by minutes. This value is then adjusted for schedule, considering the preferred pace of each opponent and when each game was played.

by Brian Floyd on Nov 27, 2009 8:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Thanks

For providing that. Offensively I don’t see a whole lot of issues other than we are screwed if Casto and Klay don’t come to play everynight.

Defensively we are horrendous and I would not be surprised if we get rocked tomorrow. Lets hope we step our game up, otherwise it’s gonna get ugly.

by MattPD on Nov 27, 2009 9:03 PM PST up reply actions  

The biggest lesson tonight

Was a team that controls pace can keep it close or win against us. NSU came to control pace and did it admirably. What does USD do? Control pace and play defense, just like we used to. We’re gonna get tested and better come out more fired up.

The plus? Bone spent the game tinkering and trying new players in an effort to find a rotation. This wasn’t our regular season rotation and he was using the game to learn I think

by Brian Floyd on Nov 28, 2009 12:32 AM PST up reply actions  

I think of shot attempts as being more indicative of pace, not points

We are shooting about the same amount of attempts and points are fairly similar as non-conference games last year. I’m sure things will change, but as for now it kinda seems like a SLIGHTLY faster offense in exchange for very lazy defense. Guess we should have expected a drop in D though.

by MattPD on Nov 27, 2009 8:26 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm sorry to say that this is going to be...

a long season. Eighth place is the base case scenario for us.

At least I’ll really enjoy watching Klay.

If we’d only play a semblance of team D. Yikes.

by westsidecougar1 on Nov 27, 2009 9:02 PM PST reply actions  

Look at the rest of the Pac-10

They are losing to teams like we are at least beating.

by spokanecougar on Nov 27, 2009 9:31 PM PST up reply actions  

Cougs will NOT be 10th, 9th, 8th, or 7th...

Worst case is 6th, the best, maybe 2nd; & if Jesus is involved, maybe 1st. The Pac-10 is open this year. Look at UCLA’s loss to CSU-Fullerton AT Pauley Pavilion, look how terrible USC is this year? Oregon State??? They need presidential stimulus about 2 weeks ago.

Arguably, the teams we have to worry about are Cal & UW, since they bring the most returning talent.

Thoughts???

by HugeBoobs on Nov 27, 2009 10:07 PM PST up reply actions  

agree

but we have to come to play tomorrow. we have looked awful suspect the last 4 games and now is the time to come out and make plays for 40 minutes on both ends of the floors.

by donkeyjon12 on Nov 27, 2009 10:35 PM PST up reply actions  

Agreed, Agreed

Tomorrow will be the first real test. If we win, it shows we can elevate our game against better opponents. If we lose, I hope we can build off it and improve. But I wouldn’t give up on the Cougs quite yet. I could sense in these past two games that Bone and the team were not satisfied with their play, and I would like to think that Bone will motivate this team get to the middle of the Pac-10 this year.

by JimtheCoug on Nov 28, 2009 12:08 AM PST up reply actions  

disagree

that 6th is our worst case scenario.

just because ucla has struggled doesn’t mean we’re going down to pauley and beating them. i think we have more talent than stanford, osu and usc.

klay’s not going to drop 40/night once we get into conference play. i think we’re in trouble.

by BigWood on Nov 28, 2009 1:42 AM PST up reply actions  

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