OPEN GAME THREAD: Air Force vs. WSU
by Craig Powers on Dec 12, 2009 12:30 PM PST
Email
PrintAir Force Falcons at Washington St. Cougars, Dec 12, 2009 1:00 PM PST
The Time: 1pm PST
The Place: Spokane Arena
The Coverage: No TV today. Find your local radio station here. Live streaming audio is also available for a fee at wsucougars.com. If you don't mind listening to the Air Force announcers, you can find their stream for free at goairforcefalcons.com.
The Lineups:
via wsucougars.com
Grant Parker, Air Force: The 6-8 senior could give the Cougs fits down low. He is posting an excellent 22.4 DR%. He also can stretch the defense, as he is shooting 40% from three so far this year.
Evan Washington, Air Force: The 6'4" guard plays almost entirely inside the arc on offense. He is excellent at drawing fouls and getting to the line, posting a 102.4 free throw rate.
Klay Thompson, WSU: Duh.
X Factors:
DeAngelo Casto, WSU: Can Casto shut down Air Force's most effective offensive weapon?
The Air Force Bench: Air Force has eleven guys posting minute percentages over 20%. How are they able to do that? They have 21 guys listed on the official roster. How is that possible? Service academies are exempt from scholarship limits because nobody pays any money to go there!
The Keys:
The Cougars win if...They use their athleticism to overwhelm Air Force and they get Klay going on the offensive end. I know that sounds redundant, but as Klay goes, this team goes.
Air Force wins if...The slow pace frustrates the Cougs and exposes their weakness in the half court.
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kxly920.com
Should have the Cougars game for free
by crimson and gray on Dec 12, 2009 12:36 PM PST reply actions
I think my favorite part
is how Enquist is listed as a “key” reserve. I think WSU’s definition of ‘key reserve’ and mine differ greatly.
.500 FG percentage
Stats can be misleading by themselves!
by Brian Floyd on Dec 12, 2009 12:48 PM PST up reply actions
Klay is not even shooting that well.
Give the ball to Charlie!
CougCenter WSU's second main blog
by Craig Powers on Dec 12, 2009 12:50 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I think even more comical
Is how for Mike Harthun the key stat they list is 1.4 rebounds per game.
by crimson and gray on Dec 12, 2009 12:56 PM PST up reply actions
Wow, that trophy presentation
at the Gtwon-Uw game was the fastest I have ever seen after a game. It was like 60 seconds after the buzzer the team was getting a trophey at center court with a table and stuff.
Enquist and Harthun leading the way.
As we all would have expected.
CougCenter WSU's second main blog
by Craig Powers on Dec 12, 2009 1:18 PM PST via mobile reply actions
No team in the pac 10 has less than 2 losses
and 8 have at least 3 losses. No victories against top 25 teams. Depending on how far UW falls, we might not have a ranked team either.
Man it's annoying to play a team that wastes the entire shot clock
Now I know why teams hated playing us
That's an awful gym to shoot in, isn't it?
by Coug Friendly Canuck on Dec 12, 2009 1:26 PM PST up reply actions
Awful Gym?
It’s a fantastic facility. The Arena is decades newer than Beasley.
The only aspect you have to get used to is an ice subfloor which will give a difference bounce to your ball handling.
It's not a good shooters gym from what I've heard
It’s hard to get used to the depth of it all. I know it’s a good facility, but it takes some adjustment.
Pretty sure he was referring to the massive spaces behind the hoops.
It always seems like teams shoot poorly there.
CougCenter WSU's second main blog
by Craig Powers on Dec 12, 2009 1:41 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Yeah, it was "awful gym to shoot in".
Not, “awful gym”.
Never been there myself.
by Coug Friendly Canuck on Dec 12, 2009 1:45 PM PST up reply actions
I like it
Especially in a non conference game, Teaching moment
by crimson and gray on Dec 12, 2009 1:34 PM PST up reply actions
Allen!
Maybe he’ll put me in the game too.
You know, Air force is not a bad team,
They are 5-2, but their 2 losses are to Northern Colorado and Missouri State, those teams are 16-1 combind.
This is nice we are handling teams like Air Force, Idaho, and San Diego when other pac-10 teams are not.
2 non-DI wins and 3 over teams in the 300's on kenpom
by Coug Friendly Canuck on Dec 12, 2009 1:46 PM PST up reply actions
And no wins over top 100 teams
And let’s end this myth that San Diego was a quality win. They’re 4-6.
I don't think anyone is calling it a "quality win" in the NCAA sense
I think they’re calling it a “quality win” in the “we beat the hell out of a middling team” sense.
And, again, I think it's semantics
He said handling. There are plenty of losses on other Pac-10 teams’ schedules to teams on par with or worse than Idaho and San Diego.
Actually its not
San Diego still beat Stanford. The cougs beat Idaho who rolled Portland and we know who they beat. So I think you’re just a little whiny after the Georgetown beatdown, but it’s alright.
Wins by Pac-10 schools better than San Diego:
Wright State, Belmont, San Jose State, Montana, Cal State Northridge, George Washington, Colorado (twice), Montana State, Colorado State, TCU, LSU, Rice, Lousiana Tech, Virginia, Murray State, Iowa State, Pacific, UC Riverside.
But don’t let the facts get in the way.
Haha okay okay
Might wanna post that on your own site though, get your comment tally up for your gamethreads since nobody goes to that site.
Nobody is saying they are great or even good wins, but we won by 37 over San Diego so that is what it is. We lost to K-state and Gonzaga and don’t have much of a resume and we all know that, so if you’re hear to do is bash our resume when nobody here is saying its very good anyway then save the time and focus on your own site.
You kind of have to include the fact that
We beat San Diego by 50. That is a lot different then beating say Wright State by 5.
by crimson and gray on Dec 12, 2009 2:02 PM PST up reply actions
I think we can all agree on one thing...
If we have to argue whether San Diego or Wright State was the best conference win… We are all in trouble…
there is
a host of teams on this list that arent as good as SD. Since you want to talk facts… no one has stated anything about the Cougs slate that threatens your overrated purple gang… they are showing us plenty by dropping out of the poll.
If you can't Go Cougs... don't go.
by hollyweirdcoug on Dec 12, 2009 3:38 PM PST up reply actions
Honestly, this is a useless argument
that really doesn’t mean much right now. I think most people on this board would agree that the uw is one of the best 2-3 teams in the conference and is probably better than the Cougars.
No matter the Pomeroy rankings, neither team has played a particularly difficult schedule.
I mean come on, look at both teams schedules. WSU schedules teams like IUPUFW and MIssissippe Valley St because they know it is a win. The uw schedules teams like Cal St Northridge and Belmont because they know it is a win.
Whether a team is ranked 200th or 300th in a particular ranking, it is irrelevant because the outcome will still be the same; a victory.
Both teams have only really played two tough teams and both lost each game. Georgetown compares to KSU and TT compares to Gonzaga.
So, stop trying to win the argument because it is meaningless.
It's weird that you guys keep bringing up UW
When all I was saying is that San Diego wasn’t that good a win.
by thecassino on Dec 13, 2009 2:03 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
What's weird about it? A uw fan is here saying the SD win
isn’t that impressive and we are saying the victory was impressve.
A victory over a team rated like SD itself was not impressive. The way that WSU won the game was impressive.
So, again as was said before, semantics.
Someone is a little cranky
After watching there team turnover the ball 25 some times.
by crimson and gray on Dec 12, 2009 1:50 PM PST up reply actions
Too few offensive rebounds, too
On the bright side, only a handful of turnovers. But you’d expect that against a half-court, slow-it-down type Princeton team.
I like Capers play today
besides free throws
by crimson and gray on Dec 12, 2009 1:49 PM PST up reply actions
I think
That the slower pace was a combination of a couple things. First of all, obviously they play a slower pace so that slows us down. Also, Bone for whatever reason was very mad with the starters and we saw less Reggie Moore and more Thames and Allen who all run the point at a slower pace and don’t push the ball like he does.
by crimson and gray on Dec 12, 2009 1:56 PM PST up reply actions
How BAD is UCLA though..
They are about to be 2-6.
By my quick count...
Pac-10 is 4-19 v. other BCS teams.
by Coug Friendly Canuck on Dec 12, 2009 2:14 PM PST up reply actions
How does that Kenpom stuff even work
Old Dominion is 6-4 with 3 losses to top 25 teams (according to him) and one loss to Dayton (who is 71). The rest of their wins are (by ranking) 286, 284,111, 294, 239
They are 25th in his rankings. So apparently all you have to do is lose to good teams to be up high? Thats a joke.
Here's your explanation
It has mostly to do with adjusted efficiency margin.
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/ratings_explanation/
KenPom is a purely predictive rating
meaning it “shows how strong a team would be if it played tonight, independent of injuries or emotional factors.”
If you want rankings based on who beat who, Sagarin is your go-top guy
by StraightOuttaPullman on Dec 12, 2009 2:36 PM PST up reply actions
Blaine could
fill it up as a HS star… I grew up taking him on in Montana… what a shooter! Pre three point line… yep I am am old Coug
If you can't Go Cougs... don't go.
by hollyweirdcoug on Dec 12, 2009 3:42 PM PST up reply actions
Cal is #10
You think they are the 10th best team in the country?
by spokanecougar on Dec 12, 2009 2:20 PM PST up reply actions
ODU at 25 makes sense when you read understand how the ratings work
What, no why is Kentucky 53rd, too?
The rankings work themselves out at the end
Right now any rankings are irrelevant still in my opinion. Once conference play is a couple weeks in, then the rankings will seem more legit.
by crimson and gray on Dec 12, 2009 2:23 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, Ken Pomeroy would tell you that himself.
Hell, he probably does in that link up there.
Some of the fun stuff on his site like the projected records et c. aren’t even online yet at this point of the season.
by Coug Friendly Canuck on Dec 12, 2009 2:25 PM PST up reply actions
Small sample size
ODU has destroyed in the games it’s won. They were close in the games they lost — to good teams. That’s all.
Look at Kentucky’s schedule, and you understand why they’re down there. The computer doesn’t think those wins over UNC and UConn are as good as the humans do. Get 50 percent of the way through the season and then we can start to really interpret.
I read his explanation
I get it and understand it, I just do not like it.
I also just take away from it that this guy had way to much free time on his hands when he thought of this.
by spokanecougar on Dec 12, 2009 2:28 PM PST up reply actions
Thats cool
I respect that, but that does not mean I have to like it just because everyone else does.
I prefer to just watch the game and see who wins rather then follow a bunch of computer stats to see who might win.
by spokanecougar on Dec 12, 2009 2:32 PM PST up reply actions
I can appreciate some number crunching!
I just think at this point in the season, comparing wins using Kenpom is not effective. Comparing in March it’s probably effective. so less Kenpom in Decemeber and more in March, thats all I’m saying!
I agree with you
But since no system is reliable right now, it’s just one way that we have to try and evaluate things at the moment.
Fair enough
But if we wanna criticize now, thenI think it’s fair because the way teams are ranked now based on what I’ve watched its not accurate. But I get what you’re saying and I think it’s probably a lot more useful in March. I’m sure its way better than RPI anyway, which I also hate.
It is
At this point, it’s best to try and combo efficiency margin (basically Pomeroy’s system) with the eye test. Problem is, you never get to see a lot of these teams again. So we got what we got.
Like you said, there’s no way Kentucky is the 53rd best team in the country. But I’m also not convinced they’re the fourth or fifth best either because they’ve got some flaws, and I think that’s reflected in their Pomeroy rating.
Because this place is devoted to all things Cougars
Unlike forums or other places pretty much all that are here are fellow cougs and not Husky fans coming on here saying how crappy we are or how we Couged something, and how good they are because they won the 1991 National Championship.
Just because I do not agree with some things you post does not mean I do not like this site or your analysis and opinion on things or I wouldnt be on it all the time.
by spokanecougar on Dec 12, 2009 2:47 PM PST up reply actions
Southern Miss is 29th
They beat 126, 171 and 3 teams NOT EVEN RANKED. Then lost to Miss. St. by 2
If the computer thinks those wins are better than UNC and UCONN then he needs a new computer!
Just give it time...
In a month if they still think those wins are better then UNC and UCONN then complain.
by crimson and gray on Dec 12, 2009 2:30 PM PST up reply actions
Exactly
Its early. Heck, in week 3 of college football the humans thought that Washington was better then Oregon, Oregon State, and Stanford.
by crimson and gray on Dec 12, 2009 2:35 PM PST up reply actions
I never said it was a stupid system
I said I don’t agree with where teams are CURRENTLY placed. He says this
“The purpose of this system is to show how strong a team would be if it played tonight, independent of injuries or emotional factors.”
In that sense I don’t agree with where teams are CURRENTLY placed. That is all. So if his system is what determines where these teams are placed then I don’t think it’s the greatest thing like others.
If the season ended tonight and this was the rankings of how good a team would play tonight as his intro says, then I don’t really like it. But it’s just my opinion and it doesnt mean it’s wrong, I just personally don’t think it’s the end all.
SAMPLE SIZE SAMPLE SIZE SAMPLE SIZE SAMPLE SIZE SAMPLE SIZE SAMPLE SIZE SAMPLE SIZE SAMPLE SIZE SAMPLE SIZE
It’s not the end all. It’s still flawed right now, but there is enough info that it’s probably not as far off on a lot of teams as you think. Don’t be surprised if some team like ODU ends up higher than you think they should, then goes out and wins a game in the NCAA tournament as a 14 seed …
on base line
Shooting for the Evergreen and Bone is not happy and being very vocal about it
by P_Cougar on Dec 12, 2009 2:48 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I can hear him on the radio
He’s pissed. Hironaka and Johnson are also getting in on the action it appears
Has Harthun been just inside the 3 on every shot he's made this year?
by Coug Friendly Canuck on Dec 12, 2009 2:28 PM PST reply actions
That's one issue
The other is he’s covering Lyons and getting murdered on defense.
How much better
has he been this year. I love to see it.
by crimson and gray on Dec 12, 2009 2:43 PM PST up reply actions
I'll agree with the first part
Not sure the second part has much to do with him grabbing 11 REBOUNDS.
Don't forget under that under Bennett the game was played at such a slow pace
that there were only 10 rebounds total to get the entire game.
I think I can finally retire his nickname...
of TOM (TurnOver Machine) as well. He has been so much smoother this year.
by crimson and gray on Dec 12, 2009 2:46 PM PST up reply actions
Remember last year when we thought Thames would be running the point?
Yeah, that Moore kid was a pleasant surprise
How come we let some unkown go off on us everygame?
Seems like we always had this problem in Bennett’s years and seems to have carried over to Bone. This Lyons kid was averaging 5.4 points and shooting 26% from the three point line coming into the game.
Charlie...
Had 1 less minute then Abe and Casto combined. Me thinks they were in the doghouse.
by crimson and gray on Dec 12, 2009 2:55 PM PST reply actions
Brother in attendance
Said that Casto and Watson seemed to be having a pity party on the bench. Casto put on his warmup and seemed disinterested in the game.
by crimson and gray on Dec 12, 2009 2:58 PM PST up reply actions
2 things I would guess
1) 2 turnovers and 1 rebound in seven minutes combined with Nik 2) 0 TO’s, 8 pts and 11 rebounds in 20 minutes.
Abe walked himself off court
After he “passed” the ball to Hironaka on the bench… nearly hit him in the face. He didn’t play for the rest of the game
Casto was in foul trouble
Not sure why Abe did not play that much, but Nik was having a good game.
And Enquist should never play this much, what is with Bones fascination with this guy? Is he just really wanting another person with size to get some playing time before the conference starts?
by spokanecougar on Dec 12, 2009 2:57 PM PST up reply actions
We need him
People who have watched him in practice say he’s got potential. But for whatever reason, he rarely positively contributes in games. We NEED another competent big body once Pac-10 play rolls around, so we gotta get him as ready as he can get.
In 2007
We only beat Air Force by 9 and they were a 16-13 team then. All we did was go 23-7 that year so lets not panic!!
Yup
A win is a win. Especially with such a young team against a disciplined academy team that slows it down and runs that Princeton offense.
What I always try to do is look at trends
Was there something in this game that was the continuation of a trend in the wrong direction? Doesn’t look like it from glancing at the numbers. Looks like we let one guy go off on us, had a poor night from our best big, and got a so-so shooting night from 3. In fact, the numbers would suggest we should have won this game by a lot more. I’ll be interested to hear what Bone has to say.
Listening to the post game show
Bone was not a happy camper. I think he was none to happy about several players effort and focus today.
I'm concerned about Casto
I don’t know if it was homecoming blues or what… but we need him. It was great to see Motum finally play solid minutes, but I do not want Casto to be a guy that disappears. Outside of Klay he is the most important guy to our success.
by Grady Clapp on Dec 12, 2009 4:06 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I don't know what crawled up his butt, but it was evident something was up listening to the game
Granted I couldn’t see it, but it seemed like something was off and Bone was all over him because of it
Good News!
Air Force put up 22 3’s and only shot 22.7%. Much better than where we’ve been so far this season
Idaho didn't shoot all that well either.
We can only hope that is a sign of things to come.
CougCenter WSU's second main blog
by Craig Powers on Dec 12, 2009 6:44 PM PST up reply actions
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