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Meet Marcus Capers, offensive weapon

Marcus Capers has long been lauded for his defensive prowess -- with his long arms, quick feet, tremendous leaping ability and (this year) strength, he fits the profile of a lockdown defender. And around these parts, that's enough to make you a fan favorite.

But with Tony Bennett as coach, Capers found it difficult to stay on the floor last year, due in large part to his offensive deficiencies. He was a black hole with the ball in his hands, unable to contribute points because of his lack of ability to shoot or drive to the basket in Bennett's restrictive half court offense. It reached its watershed moment against UCLA, where Capers inexplicably found the ball in his hands from 3-point range with the Cougs down by two in the final seconds.

Worse, as the team's primary backup point guard he wasn't a great passer and he was turning the ball over a tremendous amount -- nearly 25 percent of the possessions he used last year ended with him giving the ball to the other team.

It all added up to an incredibly poor 71.9 offensive rating -- meaning he essentially was 30 percent worse than the average offensive player in college basketball. (For context, even Nik Koprivica was able to put up a 78.0 last year with all of his troubles.) Essentially, the Cougs were playing four on five in their offensive sets when Capers on the floor last year.

Not any more.

Capers' offensive rating has shot up to 115.3 this year, meaning he's now essentially become nearly 15 percent better than the average player despite possessing essentially the same skill set as he did last year.

What's been the difference? I think there are a couple of big reasons.

Star-divide

First of all, Capers was miscast as a point guard last year. Granted, it was out of necessity, as Tony Bennett needed someone to bring up the ball and initiate the offense so that the team's best perimeter weapon -- Taylor Rochestie -- could actually get the ball in spots where he could score.

But it's become abundantly clear that Capers is not a point guard. With Reggie Moore and Xavier Thames on the roster this year, it's freed Capers to play exclusively off the ball, and he's proven very good at finding gaps on the defense and darting to the rim. He's shooting over 53 percent from 2-point range, excellent for a guard. Capers is playing with a confidence and attitude that we simply didn't see last year -- I can't even count how many times he made a mistake last year and hung his head because he knew Bennett was going to yank him off the floor -- and it's translating into results.

Second, Bone's system (stop me if you've heard this one before) is perfectly suited to Capers' freelancing style. He's free to run the floor and crash the offensive glass, and he's done it with abandon, picking up more than 9 percent of the available offensive rebounds when he's on the floor. That's a far cry from the 2.4 percent he posted last year in the Bennett system, which mandates guards get back to prevent transition baskets. It's allowed him to score putbacks and draw fouls that he wasn't drawing last year.

Ah, those fouls.

This year, Capers is drawing 4.5 fouls per 40 minutes, more than double his rate of last year. His free throw rate -- the ratio of free throws to field goal attempts -- is 34th in the country. And while that's almost always considered a positive, some are quick to point out that he's shooting 60 percent from the free throw line and claim that it effectively negates his very good free throw rate.

I beg to differ. And so do the numbers.

Essentially, there is no such thing as a bad trip to the free throw line. A player shooting 60 percent from the free throw line is scoring approximately six points every five possessions he heads to the free throw line. That's 1.20 points per possession ending with the player at the free throw line, and there's no way around it: That's excellent production. (Average is about 1.00 point per possession, or 100.0 offensive efficiency.)

But some would say that theoretical math isn't concrete enough, not taking into account missed front ends of one-and-ones or whatever. Fine. I went back and tracked every trip to the free throw line Capers has made this year, and here's what I found.

  • He's gone to the line 20 times
  • On those possessions Capers has scored 29 points -- 1.45 points per possession.
  • If you remove the three buckets he's scored on fouls from the equation and leave only the free throws, it's still 1.15 points per possession. 
  • On only three of those possessions have the Cougs walked away with zero points -- twice when he missed two free throws, and once on the front end of a one-and-one.

I'm not advocating that Capers should be in the game when the other team is in an obvious foul situation, but I think it's fair to say that the negative effect of his poor free throw percentage is greatly exaggerated. Stop holding your breath when he gets fouled. It's a good thing.

And it's time to embrace what the numbers are telling us: Marcus Capers is a one-dimensional player no more.

Check out Capers' stats from last season and this season side by side here.

Follow us on Twitter @CougCenter and me @NussCoug.

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Now if he'd only find that jump shot that spontaneously appeared

in the St. Mary’s game last year. Definitely good to see him productive on offense though.

by Eramm on Dec 21, 2009 7:14 PM PST via mobile reply actions  

Great work Nuss

1.15 points per possession is a lot better than zero points per possession. There is nothing wrong with Capers.

There were several players that are free to make more mistakes this year like Lodwick and Koprivica.

I am going to look closer and see how long the leash is for players like Harthun and Watson. Will Bone let them learn from their mistakes or will he pull a Tony and yank them?

by Coug1990 on Dec 21, 2009 7:35 PM PST reply actions  

I think Harthun will get every opportunity to prove he can play

Bone spoke glowingly of him when he got the job, remembering him as a recruit in the Portland area.

I think the same goes for Watson, although for different reasons. They desperately need another competent big, and although Watson doesn’t have prototypical height for the 4, he’s got lots of athleticism and some strength. I think it’s pretty clear he’s passed Enquist at this point, given that Charlie’s really brought next to nothing to the floor.

by Jeff Nusser on Dec 21, 2009 7:58 PM PST up reply actions  

I think he will too, but I will pay attention to verify

Tony had a short leash and it hurt several players confidence.

Looking back, he had short leashes with Abercrombie, Matthews, Hopson, etc.

I don’t know if it was the matchup, but Bone expanded his bench a little against PSU. In the beginning of the season, I think he may have been playing a short rotation to get them used to each other. Now, he may start slowly expanding the rotation, as clearly they are more comfortable with each other and Bone’s system.

Regarding Enquist, this is the first game that Bone used Watson before Enquist. I hope he has passed him too, but it could be that the defensive gameplan was too switch on every pick and Charlie does not have the speed to guard anyone but a post.

So, it could have been the matchup that dictates who plays more or if Watson really did pass Enquist in the rotation. We’ll have to wait and see.

By the way, Watson doesn’t have the prototypical height for the 4, but neither does Abe, nor Nik. It is interesting that Bone uses them outside the arc and thus pulls the defense out and opens up the lanes for all the drives that we have seen. When Watson is in the game, he plays inside the key.

by Coug1990 on Dec 21, 2009 8:33 PM PST up reply actions  

I was thinking the same thing
Regarding Enquist, this is the first game that Bone used Watson before Enquist. I hope he has passed him too, but it could be that the defensive gameplan was too switch on every pick and Charlie does not have the speed to guard anyone but a post.

I don’t think the comparison to Abe or Nik is apt, though. They each bring an offensive skill set that Watson doesn’t possess. So his value comes from defense and rebounding — just like Enquist.

by Jeff Nusser on Dec 21, 2009 8:57 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes, that was my point

I guess I was indirectly saying the same thing. The only comparison that I meant is that they are all basically the same height. Neither of the trio is ideal size, but this is college and not the NBA, so teams can get away with undersized players.

Nik and Abe do bring an offensive skillset to the game and like I said, Bone has them outside the arc to open the lane. Bone cannot do that with Watson; therefore, the offense is not quite the same when he is in the game with Casto.

But you are right, his skillset is defense and rebounding. His not knowing what to do on defense is probably what has kept him from playing more at this point in the season.

by Coug1990 on Dec 21, 2009 9:16 PM PST up reply actions  

So I assume this article was to rebut me?

I agree that Capers is better offensively because they put him where less dribbling and more dunks and layups are had, the baseline.
Bone’s offense as well as Moore’s passing savvy has freed Capers to roam the baseline and get those passes where he can succeed.
Again, I always seem like I am banging on everyone and everybody, but I am the ying to your yang. At least someone has to be.
 I would be interested in our top 6 guys pts per possession as compared to last yr. Sure we had less possession and therefore didn’t need as many pts, but my hypothesis is that I think you will see an increase across the aboard for pts per minute because the tentativeness is a lot less present with this team under Bone, although interesting he is not as relaxed as TB was on the sideline.

by ptowncoug3012 on Dec 21, 2009 9:11 PM PST reply actions  

a number of his dunks this year are on

put backs, he also is getting to the line a ton, as the article pointed out. and you know what, there is a huge advantage having a guy who can finish around the rim.

by donkeyjon12 on Dec 21, 2009 9:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Really, only the FT thing was to rebut you

The rest of it I was already contemplating writing.

In terms of point per possession production, that’s basically what offensive rating is. Here they are in order (minimum 30 percent of minutes):

1. Reggie Moore (130.0)
2. Nik Koprivica (127.9)
3. Klay Thompson (120.2)
4. Marcus Capers (115.3)
5. Abe Lodwick (110.8)
6. Xavier Thames (105.8)
7. DeAngelo Casto (99.9)
8. Michael Harthun (93.6)

If you’re curious, only three guys played 30 percent of the minutes and had an ORtg of over 100 last year. So, yeah — your theory that the guys are performing more efficiently under Bone and his system seems to be correct so far.

by Jeff Nusser on Dec 21, 2009 9:38 PM PST up reply actions  

And by the way

I love your yin to my yang. Keeps me on my toes!

by Jeff Nusser on Dec 21, 2009 9:40 PM PST up reply actions  

I agree Capers has a lot of put back dunks because he is hanging

out on the baseline more under Bone’s system. That guy can leap small buildings. He has crazy ups. However, Capers is one of those guys you would love to see have a redshirt year. Kinda of like with Weaver although Weaver was more well rounded as a freshman. Capers is going to be really good by his Sr. year because he appears to have a great work ethic and want to get himself better. But I think we are all going to be kicking ourselves saying I wish he had 1 more year.
This is why I am so disappointed about the Brown situation, which really isn’t all that clear at this pt. I don’t think he is even getting garbage time (of course not in travel games because he isn’t even traveling) in games.

by ptowncoug3012 on Dec 22, 2009 8:48 AM PST up reply actions  

some of us

didn’t need this offensive output to fall in love with this kids impact on the team.

by Jo-Jo on Dec 21, 2009 9:23 PM PST via mobile reply actions  

DUUUUUUUUUDDDDE!

Call me. Tonight. Or tomorrow. But please, for the love of our savior, do it as soon as possible.

by Jeff Nusser on Dec 21, 2009 9:39 PM PST up reply actions  

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