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Is Tony Bennett insane?

I truly thought we were finished with this conversation after the first Stanford game, but I guess not.

Throughout the nonconference schedule, Tony Bennett channelled his inner Lou Piniella and relied heavily on his veterans in the big games. It was a strategy that generally backfired -- usually spectacularly -- as the Cougs repeatedly fell apart in the second half, culminated by that embarrassment of a game against the Huskies in Pullman.

Then, the second half of the first game against Stanford happened. DeAngelo Casto absolutely took over, and it was clear that what the Cougs needed was a mix of youth and experience to create the mental and physical toughness needed to compete against the athletes of the Pac-10 every night.

Bennett, too, seemed to have finally bought into that notion, starting Casto against Oregon State and Marcus Capers against Oregon and UCLA, in turn taking a bite out of the minutes of Nikola Koprivica and Daven Harmeling. Capers played 31 minutes and Casto 29 in the rout of Oregon; the duo then played 27 minutes and 15 minutes, respectively against UCLA. Meanwhile, Harmeling played only 10 minutes at Oregon and never even got off the bench against UCLA, while Koprivica played 7 and 10. This team finally seemed to be on a roll

But then the USC game happened, and we seem to be right back where we started: Unable to play against superior athletes because Bennett insists on trotting out veteran units.

Capers did start the game against USC, and he and Casto both logged good minutes as the Cougs took control of the game early in the second. But as the game started to slip away, Bennett did what most coaches do: He turned to his veterans as a calming influence down the stretch, hoping they could hold onto the lead. Capers left the game, never to return after 14 minutes played, with the Cougs leading by eight at the 10:48 mark; Casto left the game, never to return after 15 minutes played, with the Cougs leading by three at the 4:51 mark.

Of course, we know how the story ends. The veterans were terrible. They couldn't defend, repeatedly getting beaten to the cup and fouling, and they couldn't make an open shot. The Cougs would go on to lose by two, frittering away what was an eight-point lead by being outscored 11-3 over those final five minutes (meaningless Rochestie 3-pointer notwithstanding) with a lineup of Rochestie, Thompson, Harmeling, Forrest and Baynes. Most galling was the presence of Harmeling -- the guy who only played 10 minutes in the previsous two games combined, and didn't play against UCLA, played 29 minutes but only shot 1-of-5 with two rebounds.

Did Bennett learn from this? Nope.

Capers never got off the bench against Arizona State, and Casto only played meaningful minutes once Bennett got desperate enough to use him to try and stop James Harden -- he had only played five minutes in the first half. It happened again on Saturday against Arizona, as Capers and Casto played just 16 minutes combined. Then, of course, there was last night. We did get a healthy dose of Casto, but Capers played just two minutes as the Cardinal shot their way to a relatively easy victory.

Now, if we look at each case individually, there are perfectly logical explanations for each. Against ASU, we explained it away as Capers lacking the outside shot to combat the ASU zone. Against Arizona, it appeared the freshmen were just turning the ball over too much (although, neither played much in the first half and the three turnovers between them weren't really out of line with what everyone else was doing), and it doesn't readily appear that there was much Capers would have done to stop Lawrence Hill.

But taken in their totality, this is a disturbing trend back into the abyss that I thought this team had escaped before the meltdown against USC. As we've stated on this site multiple times -- and has been proven again and again -- the experienced guys, while valuable and important parts of this team, simply cannot win games by themselves unless they're playing against an athletically similar team. (There's a reason why the strategy worked well in the comeback against OSU, for example.)

Beyond that, Bennett doesn't even get what you would normally expect to get from veterans. At the very least, a unit that's 80 percent seniors should be physically and mentally tough when they're on the floor. They're not. They don't scrap. They crumble under pressure. Faced with fading NCAA Tournament chances last night, these seniors in their final games as college players were flat as a pancake on defense. As Harmeling said, "They were hungry. We were the opposite of that."

It's inexcusable, and Bennett bears at least some of the responsibility for continually putting his team in this position with his unit choices. Over the course of an 82-game NBA season, you can afford to keep going back to a formula, hoping that a guy shoots his way out of a slump, or that something will just all of a sudden click. In a 30-game college season, though, there's just not time to waste. Every game is important, and this team is quickly running out of time to prove it should have one of those 34 at large bids.

There's a famous saying that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Right now, Tony Bennett is looking insane. Let's hope he snaps out of it before it's too late, remembering how Patrick Christopher abused both Harmeling and Koprivica in the last matchup. We're going to need our athletes on the floor tomorrow -- and for the rest of the year -- if we're to salvage anything out of this season.

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I initially didn't agree with this

but I’m having a hard time working through the counter-arguments. I can see both sides of the argument fairly well I think, and there are elements of truth to each. I think you are right on with Casto, but let me present an opposition point for Capers:

Let’s look at Ken Pomeroy’s stats for a little insight. First with the offense – we’ll go with True Shooting %, assist rate / turnover rate, offensive rebounding and then free throw rate: Rochestie (53.0, 1.75, 1.7, 28.8), Thompson (53.3, 0.75, 3.5, 8.7), Koprivica (45.0, 0.47, 0.6, 17.5), Capers (30.9, 0.66, 2.8, 39.0), and Lodwick (23.0, 0.44, 5.7, 0.0).
Offensively, we obviously need the only guard on our team with a better assist rate than turnover rate to start as well as our best shooter, so we’ve got Taylor and Klay. Okay, easy. The third guard spot clearly comes down to Capers or Koprivica since Abe is inferior in every category, and basically the argument is that Nik is a much better scorer, slightly worse rebounder, slightly worse turnover machine and is much worse at getting to the free throw line. Since Capers gives us no guarantee that he’ll make free throws once he gets to the line, aside from a couple gimmes a game his only contribution in that sense is getting his man in foul trouble. However, given that his shooting, um, still needs work, teams can put their worst defender on him and so foul trouble isn’t really that helpful. I would say offensively Nik gives us more. His “offensive rating” is 76.4 to Marcus’s 69.4 as well.

Defensively, Marcus is better at blocking, worse at stealing, slightly better at rebounding, and much worse at fouling. It could be argued that there is no defensive stat for playing solid defense and forcing tough shots, so I would give Marcus a sort of intangible edge there, though honestly I am still a believer in Nik’s defense. Just from the stats it looks like a tossup on defense, though Marcus probably takes on harder defensive assignments because of his athleticism.

Overall, I would say there is certainly no clear statistical evidence for Capers to play more often than Nik, certainly not when we are trailing in a game and need some offense.

Basically, my ideal lineup would be Rochestie, Thompson, Nik, Casto and Baynes, with Capers spelling one of the three guards at a time and Harmeling and Forrest giving Aron and DeAngelo breathers.

Tony Bennett for Heisman!

by johnnycougar on Feb 6, 2009 5:12 PM PST reply actions  

The only problem with your argument

Is that, in general, Capers’ minutes aren’t going to Nik. They’re going to Harmeling, who is back to seeing tons of time at the 3, where he can’t defend other team’s wings adequately. If he was shooting like we know he can, we’d cope. But he’s not. So he’s really killing us on both ends right now.

To be honest, it wouldn’t be too tough for anyone to shoot down my argument. After all, as I noted, in the last three games there are perfectly legitimate reasons why these guys didn’t see heavy minutes. But I think you have to look at the trend in its totality, and it’s up to Bennett to figure out how to get these guys involved in the games at the times that it benefits the team the most, and most of all, TRUST THEM to play at critical junctures.

by Jeff Nusser on Feb 7, 2009 9:08 AM PST up reply actions  

Harmeling isn't doing as bad as we think

He’s not the offensive liability Capers is (51.6 TS%, better than Capers, Nik or Casto; only player other than Taylor with better assist rate than TO rate) and on defense he is a slightly worse blocker and stealer but much better at not fouling. However he is only half as good a rebounder, despite often playing at the 4, and we have seen him get lit up a couple times. I think he did a pretty decent job on Budinger, but quicker wings definitely give him trouble.

I guess what it comes down to for me is that Capers truly is scary (not the good kind) on offense, but fun to watch on defense. If Tony feels that we’re the type of team that can win 46-40 types of games no matter who we play, I guess I’d lean towards Marcus. Really, the ideal scenario would be Marcus becoming more aggressive at driving the lane and hopefully opening up easy shots. Even if he’s not contributing points himself, at least that can get opposing bigs in foul trouble and hopefully let Klay and Taylor get open looks.

Tony Bennett for Heisman!

by johnnycougar on Feb 7, 2009 10:58 AM PST up reply actions  

As a group, I feel we've been over this a thousand times

(which is one of the reasons I have been a bit more absent on the site lately. This season is becoming much like trying to reason with my 8 year old daughter, you can tell her a thousand times what and why, and it just doesn’t sink in.)

You can’t look at this situation from a stats point of view exclusively. The bottom line is this; the TEAM is more successful when they do not have the lineup loaded with the upperclassmen. In watching this team all season, and breaking down hundreds of hours of film on the different combination’s, this point is clear, and has been proven and expanded on time and time again.

In the conversation about who that fifth starter should be, the argument can be made between Harm and Capers based on a match-ups situation (even though Harm has not given this team the offensive punch that makes him worth playing). Capers and Koprivica is a whole other story. Rochestie and Thompson are more productive when Capers is on the floor, and that is what really makes Koprivica worthless.

Now for the comment that will get me crucified by all the homer tinted analysis on this site; short of winning the Pac-10 Tournament, this team will not be playing in the NCAA’s this season. (of course, now that I’ve said that they will probably go on an eight game winning streak and win the conference … or not) But seriously, they just don’t have it right now, and it’s getting late in the season. Other teams are peaking and the Cougs are sinking. Before you get all fire up and want to argue this, consider this; I would gladly take bets from any of you who are confident enough to put money on the Cougs NCAA chances. So, with the future of this team so bright in the years to come, and another solid class coming in next year, why would you sink with the upperclassmen on a team that isn’t going to make the Tourney, when you could get these guys one step closer to making a run next year. If the statistical difference between Koprivica and Capers is marginal at best, then why lose with Koprivica when you can lose with a player that this team will absolutely need to perform over the next three years. Capers has much more upside and time and though he is two years behind Koprivica in experience, he is (in your opinion) almost as effective of a contributor.

All that to be said, I’m not cashing the season in, as it has been proven that the team was winning with Capers in the lineup. And I highly doubt that Koprivica would have held Josh Shipp to a single field goal in 23 minutes of defending him. Really, I can’t believe we are having this conversation again.

by Jo-Jo on Feb 7, 2009 1:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Agreed

I would rather lose with youth and take those lumps to learn from, than lose with veterans. Youth gives one hope. (Source – see Seattle Mariners…)

by DCinSEA on Feb 7, 2009 6:07 PM PST up reply actions  

Source

see Cougar Basketball 3 and 4 years ago

by Jo-Jo on Feb 8, 2009 10:32 AM PST up reply actions  

Almost that entire TS% was built early in the nonconference schedule

It’s not fair to use that as a stat at this point. Harmeling is such a liability on defense, he’s got to be scoring 10+ points to make it worth him being on the floor. And even then, he’s got to be playing the 4. The problem with that, of course, is that Forrest is playing the 4 rather adequately, save for the poor defensive rebounding. Harmeling really does need to be buried on the bench.

by Jeff Nusser on Feb 7, 2009 9:28 PM PST up reply actions  

yeah

the dude is shooting 15% in Pac-10 play

by Jo-Jo on Feb 8, 2009 10:49 AM PST up reply actions  

great post

I’ve been going back and forth over what to do with Casto for the last few weeks. Part of me thinks he should be getting more PT, but he seems to be on the same leash that Tony has Nik on. He’s just not ready to be relied on game in and game out. He was OUTSTANDING as a last resort option against ASU, but the 3 games that sandwiched that game (UCLA, USC and UA) he crapped himself out there and Tony had to yank him.

Last time we played Stanford, our plus/minus leaders were:

Casto +19
Koprivica +9
Capers +7

and the doghouse was (not counting Lodwick)

Forrest -15
Baynes -7
Thompson -3

So hopefully Casto and Capers get some chances tonight.

by BigWood! on Feb 7, 2009 3:06 PM PST reply actions  

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