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Who would you give the minutes to?

I'm curious to see what our little community values in its players. Take a vote, and then take a guess at who is who. Be straight about it, don't look up player stats before you vote or comment, just use the numbers in the poll. This way we can leave romance and emotions out of it. I will give a little wrinkle and the results a few days from now.

Vote/discuss/enjoy.

Poll
Can you guess who is who?
Player A: fg% = 20 a/to = 1.4 team winning % when player gets more than 20 min. = 67
62 votes
Player B: fg% = 36 a/to = 1.2 team winning % when player gets more than 20 min. = 33
25 votes
Player C: fg% = 15 a/to = 3.75 team winning % when player gets more than 20 min. = 33
26 votes

113 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost does not necessarily reflect the views of the site's writers or editors, who may not have verified its accuracy. It does, however, reflect the views of this particular fan, which is just as important as the views of our writers or editors.

0 recs  |  Comment 52 comments

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Come on everybody

tell me why you voted the way you did. I really want to know what’s behind the decisions.

by Jo-Jo on Feb 8, 2009 11:15 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I voted for the 36% and 1.2 a/to ratio

because I know the Cougs and we need people who can at least make a bucket a 1/3 of the time. I wasn’t really tempted by the winning % stat because there are 5 players on the floor that contribute to that stat.

by ptowncoug3012 on Feb 9, 2009 8:27 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

This poll is rigged...it's a trap...

I’m not answering without my lawyer present. ;-)

Like I’ve posted before, I’d work in Casto only with all veterans (AB, TR, KT (he’s a veteran now), DH, and CF). No more than one of Casto or Capers or Harthun on the floor at one time.

I also would not substitute unless I had to (i.e. fouls) when we are totally befuddling the opponent like we were vs. Cal early on (16-5). Take a timeout to give our guys some rest if you need to…but I think “if it ain’t broke, then don’t try to ‘fix’ it.”

We lost some big momentum early in the game on Saturday. I hated to see that happen for no apparent reason. Maybe Cal would have rallied anyway…but we’ll never know…and our starters were playing very, very well. Agree?

I’m not against Capers…but he better bring something to the table offensively or I’d be very hesitant to play him. At least attacking the basket off the dribble. Please.

by westsidecougar1 on Feb 9, 2009 8:58 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

The winning percentage stat intigued me enough to choose that one.

Perhaps that means that player is a key contributor on defense… or perhaps that stat means absolutely nothing. Plus its not like the other players’ stats blow anything out of the water at the moment…

My completely blind guesses for who the players are, are as follows:

A- Casto
B- Kop
C- Capers

These are probably the only bench players/starters that have played over 20 minutes in any game—- except for Harmeling… Harmeling might be one of those players in question I suppose. But just like westsidecougar1 says… this poll is probably a trap and at least one of the players may be who we least expect.

by cfred on Feb 9, 2009 9:01 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I picked the win% stat

Just because a guy can’t shoot doesn’t mean he’s not elevating the play of his teammates, or not making the team better. Isn’t the goal of any player to make his team better, whether through shooting or otherwise?

by Jeff Nusser on Feb 9, 2009 9:02 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I like the +/- stat....and I know that the coaches use it.

However, it needs to be looked at in the context of a larger body of work by each player. Like any stat, it can be distorted by things having nothing to do with the player per se. Sorry if you guys have covered this point already. Just wanted to make this point.

by westsidecougar1 on Feb 9, 2009 10:21 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

This poll seems rigged to me too

But only because I’ve read what Jo-Jo has to say on such matters previously.

I voted A, the main reason being that we’ve had enough games at this point to where it seems like 67% could be statistically significant. But to clarify, the poll choices should state both the actual number of games won by the players and whether such games are in Pac 10 play or against the Northwestern Minnesota Techs of the world.

Hazarding a guess as to Jo-Jo’s ultimate point with all this, I would say that the statistics just as easily show that when Player A (for example) is playing well, he gets more than 20 minutes, and thus the team is probably winning. Also, assuming he is a freshman, if all of the games this year are included then of course you’d expect the numbers to be high since the frosh got a lot more minutes in the blowouts earlier in the year.

Tony Bennett for Heisman!

by johnnycougar on Feb 9, 2009 9:46 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

An excellent point
I would say that the statistics just as easily show that when Player A (for example) is playing well, he gets more than 20 minutes, and thus the team is probably winning.

Good thought. Hadn’t really thought about it that way.

by Jeff Nusser on Feb 9, 2009 10:39 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

67% could also mean 2/3
— it seems like 67% could be statistically significant.

Or 67% could be largely insignificant, be it 2/3 games that the player played 20 minutes. Too small of sample size.

by cfred on Feb 9, 2009 12:46 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I voted A

I didn’t think about it much, but I put A. I was more interested is what other people put. I know the winning percentage is more and the FG% is less, but that is Bennett Ball…better defense = more wins.

I have to agree with westsidecougar. I didn’t like the starters at first on Saturday, but boy did they play well together. The offense looked like it was finally in sync. I know Bennett wants the bench involved, but ride that hot streak until they are exhausted. We are the Cougs, we need all the offensive streaks we can get. Kop actually looked good streaking to the hole on Saturday. I thought for 75% of the game our offense looked good.

I am actually scared to lose Taylor, Forrest and Baynes next year. They made our offense look good on Saturday. Hopefully, Thames, Chadwick, Motum and Brown can give us offensive help next year. Thames is the only one I think will be an impact. So, we are looking at Thames, Thompson, Kop, Casto and Enquist? Ouch!

by SoCalCoug on Feb 9, 2009 12:11 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

For the record

this is not rigged, and it is not a trap. I was just honestly curious about what everyone would pick.

I left some of the details out so that people wouldn’t be swayed by their “FEELINGS” about players. I didn’t research those numbers with the intention of an outcome, or to prove a point, and to be honest; some of those numbers surprised me. I can see the predicament that Tony is in with the rotation, based on this group of players.

I chose player A, not because of the winning %, though I think that is significant, but because he was the only player that wasn’t the worst in any of the three statistical categories.

Maybe the difference between 20% and 15% shooting isn’t that big, but maybe it is when you consider that player C has taken nearly three times the amount of shots as player A.

And certainly 1.4 isn’t any better really than 1.2 in a/to ratio, or maybe it is when you consider the fact that player B’s ratio is thrown out of balance by one uncharacteristically efficient game, that if you had removed just that one game his ratio would have been a dreadful 0.75.

And as for the winning percentage, johnnycougar brings up a good point in “I would say that the statistics just as easily show that when Player A (for example) is playing well, he gets more than 20 minutes, and thus the team is probably winning.” But player A started each of the games that contributed to his winning % so that isn’t necessarily the case. Perhaps I would say the statistic shows that the teams was playing better when player A was on the court for more than 20 minutes. Chicken …. Egg ….. whatever.

None of these stats we compiled against cupcakes because those stats just don’t matter. These were taken from games against “like” competition.

By now you should all know who is who on this list. Though I don’t think anyone than cfred has taken a real stab at it, and he was wrong. I will reveal the truth tomorrow.

by Jo-Jo on Feb 9, 2009 5:56 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

aha!

The “starting” information is definitely helpful. Although I agree there is an element of chicken or egg here, assuming at least some of the players in question are freshmen we know Tony has a short leash with them and are quick to pull them when the start off poorly. I wonder if this would give evidence that starting these players also leads to them having better games…

I was joking about rigged, and I say that because your “man crush” on Capers is well documented :) and also that Player A looked the best despite a not great shooting percentage, so I initially thought Capers was A. With more thought (could be way off) i will guess
A – Casto
B – Nik
C – Capers

Good poll though!

Tony Bennett for Heisman!

by johnnycougar on Feb 9, 2009 8:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Voted A

My guesses are:

Nik
Capers
Daven

When he’s doing well offensively, Nik’s defense gives us the boost we need to win more. My guess anyways.

by TiltingRight on Feb 9, 2009 8:06 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

My guess

Daven
Nik
Capers

I’m pretty sure about this.

One thing I forgot to mention yesterday, completely unrelated, is how damn good our offense looked when Forrest was in the lineup. Right now I’d rather have him taking threes than the magically poor shooting monster that is Harmwickthun.

by Grady. on Feb 9, 2009 9:22 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

One thing we do know

None of them are Taylor, because he plays about 750 minutes every game, meaning his win percentage would match our team’s.

by Grady. on Feb 9, 2009 9:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry Grady

That’s not it.

by Jo-Jo on Feb 9, 2009 11:24 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

a guess

Casto
Capers
Kop

I would like to see a lot more of Casto’s energy on the floor.

Always be a good sport, be a good sport always.

by hollywoodcoug on Feb 9, 2009 10:07 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I'd want a lot more information than that.

But if that’s the only information you give me, I’ll go with B.

by philkid3 on Feb 10, 2009 1:53 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I'd like one more stat too (rebounding?)...

I’m with you…I’ll take player B.

Without doing the research…I’ll say it’s

Harm
Casto
Capers (although that assist/TO ratio seems way too high)

by westsidecougar1 on Feb 10, 2009 11:23 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

ask and you shall recieve

Player A = 2.0 rebounds per game
Player B= 1.1 rebounds per game
Player C= 2.3 rebounds per game

results coming in a few hours.

by Jo-Jo on Feb 10, 2009 7:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Well...switch Casto with Capers on my guesses then

Harms
Capers
Casto

I just backed myself into a corner. You win. Truth is, I don’t like any of their stats though. :-)

by westsidecougar1 on Feb 10, 2009 9:49 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I understand

But that still isn’t the answer

by Jo-Jo on Feb 10, 2009 10:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

These stats were combiled from the Pac-10 schedule

Player A = Marcus Capers; who’s winning percentage was comprised of only three games, however the single loss came against UCLA, a game in which the Cougs (in my opinion) played some of their best basketball of the year. The two point loss was also a game in which Capers played exceptional defense against a real scorer in Josh Shipp, holding him to a single field goal.

Player B = Nikola Koprivica; who does have the highest shooting percentage of the three, and I will add the the assist/turnover ratio is skewed by the 5/0 performance against Cal on Saturday. Prior to that game he was at a 0.75.

Player C = Daven Harmeling; that’s right, 15% from the field in Pac-10 play. That number is astonishing to me. It’s not a sample size, it’s over the course of 11 games and 39 shot attempts. While the assist/turnover ratio is very high, he only has 1.5 assist/game over this time period, and generally doesn’t do much with the basketball in his hands, so the weight of that number is a bit deflated.

So there it is. Like westside said, there really isn’t a clear answer, so I guess it just come down to what Tony thinks is most important from the fifth starter. Capers gives you nothing in terms of offensive statistics, Koprivica is a turnover machine, and Harmeling can’t seem to do the one thing that gives him offensive value.

I’m interested to hear y’alls reactions.

by Jo-Jo on Feb 10, 2009 10:28 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Not that I am picking on Marcus

But the two wins are against Oregon and Oregon State. Though he did play well against UCLA, scratch that, VERY well against UCLA.

Harmeling really has only had two good games for us all year, so I think I am going to shut up about backing him now. His two games, btw, were against Baylor and against Arizona, so interestingly he actually seems to do better against up-tempo opponents. If Forrest is an occasional threat from 3 I think there is no big reason for Daven to play – pretty much his only saving grace is that he doesn’t turn the ball over – although when mostly you’re just swinging the ball around the perimeter that’s going to happen.

I still think Nik is our best offensive threat at the 3, but I would rather have Capers backing up Rochestie. If Capers could take the ball to the rack he would be a shoe-in but he still seems nervous out there. Also he fouls too much and makes a couple boneheaded plays a game. Whereas Nik can get beat on defense and also occasionally does things that make me scratch my head. I guess I just wish we were having this argument about the #7 guy on our team instead of the starting 3.

Tony Bennett for Heisman!

by johnnycougar on Feb 11, 2009 10:03 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That last part is the linchpin

We are just way, way, WAY more weak at that 3-spot than anyone ever imagined, and it’s crippling this team.

by Jeff Nusser on Feb 11, 2009 10:12 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That's it in a nutshell...

The 3 position is what has been our downfall this season.

I had counted on Nik being improved due to experience/maturity. Wasn’t expecting him to be a “good” shooter…just an adequate one. Harmeling has totally fallen off the map in terms of production. Where is the Harmeling of two seasons ago? The guy who could nail the 3 ball pretty consistently when open.

I expected (naively…I guess), that Lodwick would show something this season (at the very least with his supposed deadly outside shooting).

On the bright side, I expected Forrest to pick it up this season…and he has stepped up pretty nicely. Although, he can have disasterous shooting nights (ref vs. USC). But overall, Forrest has helped us as the much-needed “third weapon” on the court for outside shooting.

So how did Tony not see this position being our problem area? He’s a very smart coach…with a solid staff. I wonder if they were in denial about this situation? Even if those guys performed better than they have offensively, they would not have cut it on the defensive side of the ball. Perhaps a JC guy would have been a good option?? I know…that can be tough too in terms of getting them up to speed on the Bennett D system.

Honestly, I was more concerned at the beginning of the season about the 4 position.

Next season…

1 Thames
2 Thompson
3 ?
4 Motum
5 Casto

I hate to be pessimistic…but it’s going to be a very tough ride for us for another season. Seems to me, we still have problems with the 3 position. Agree all?

by westsidecougar1 on Feb 11, 2009 11:11 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

3 will probably be Nik

but I agree, next season is going to be rough. How about Boeke, is he ever going to get healthy? You’d hope that amongst Lodwick, Capers, Harthun and Watson someone will step up. I honestly think the ideal scenario would be Lodwick finding his shot, because he seems to have all the tools for the 3 otherwise.

Tony Bennett for Heisman!

by johnnycougar on Feb 11, 2009 12:31 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I've pretty much written off Boeke...

maybe I’ll be proven wrong.

Lodwick may be okay at the 3…but he’s slow and would struggle against quality 3 guys with his defense.

by westsidecougar1 on Feb 11, 2009 1:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know what his range is

But I’ve gotten the impression he’s like a better rebounding version of Caleb Forrest.

by Jeff Nusser on Feb 11, 2009 5:09 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I've heard he strokes the three

but I’ve heard that about Lodwick too.

by Jo-Jo on Feb 11, 2009 11:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I was absolutely fricken right then

But I didn’t say so beforehand so….

by jj_fekl on Feb 11, 2009 12:22 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Is a "big lineup"

of Rochestie/Thompson/Forrest/Casto/Baynes just a non-starter? It strikes me that that would easily put the best 5 Cougs on the floor.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 11, 2009 10:06 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

This is the lineup I advocated for most of the season

Forrest can spread the floor a little, and he’s probably quick enough to guard most teams’ 3. It also masks his poor defensive rebounding to a degree. The issue, though, is Casto. I’ve had to come to grips with the fact that you just never know what you’re getting from him. You know he’s going to rebound, but is he going to turn the ball over? Is he going to have a defensive breakdown?

by Jeff Nusser on Feb 11, 2009 10:11 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That is true

Maybe it’s just because we had a couple years of Baynes playing like that, but I think Casto can benefit from the playing time even if he’s not doing well. With that lineup he does not need to be a scoring option, so as long as he keeps his fouls and turnovers down he can let his defense and rebounding do the talking. Plus we’ve seen him and Aron work pretty well together, and it limits the double team opportunities, allowing more ball movement and better offense overall.

Tony Bennett for Heisman!

by johnnycougar on Feb 11, 2009 12:34 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It's not the O I'd worry about with the lineup

It’s the D. Forrest would get SMOKED by every other 3 in the conference, every. single. night.

by TiltingRight on Feb 12, 2009 11:02 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

More than Harmeling?

That’s kind of what I’m talking about. If you’re willing to play Harmeling there, you should be willing to play Forrest there.

by Jeff Nusser on Feb 12, 2009 11:20 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The only downside

I don’t think Caleb moves quite as well laterally as Daven, also probably would fall for jump fakes more often. I would still like to see the “dream lineup” at least once over the next two games.

As a sidenote, is the game on TV tonight? If not, do you want a writeup from the perspective of someone in attendance?

Tony Bennett for Heisman!

by johnnycougar on Feb 12, 2009 2:24 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

No, it's not on TV

And I think Grady’s going to be there, but you’re certainly more than encouraged to write a FanPost from your perspective.

by Jeff Nusser on Feb 12, 2009 2:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It's a motion offense Nuss,

the function of the three is to move around without the ball, a lot. Just because a guy can hit a jumper doesn’t mean that he has what it takes to be play the 3 in that offense. We’ve seen how had it is with Harmeling at that spot, how much more will the offense struggle with Forrest, who’s less mobile?

Come on guys, we’re smarter than this.

by Jo-Jo on Feb 12, 2009 5:09 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

smarter?

Maybe…

I would say Forrest’s upside in the motion offense is that he’s more of a threat for a pick-and-pop (or even roll for that matter). He seems to have not only the 18 foot J in his arsenal but he at least he’s shown the ability to hit a 3. I’d have Taylor or Klay run screens off him at the top and at the elbow (I mean the free throw line extended to the 3pt arc) four or five times every possession. Ideally this would either lead to open shots for Caleb or (even better) a clear lane for getting to the hoop, maybe (God willing) even leading to some free throws!

Mobility-wise, I agree he won’t move as well as Harmeling, but what has moving done for Harmeling’s stats? I think we’ve established that they’re not great. It could be that his motion increases opportunities for other players but I would argue that Daven’s defenders are cheating a bit on the screens – he keeps getting open shots and it’s not because he’s coming off screens himself, they’re just letting him shoot.

I’m not convinced Caleb would end up being better, I’m just saying try it, since the lineup allows our theoretically best players to be together at the same time.

Tony Bennett for Heisman!

by johnnycougar on Feb 12, 2009 6:02 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Congratulations Jo-Jo

This is probably the most commented on (non-game thread) post ever at cougcenter.

by Dancing Football on Feb 12, 2009 5:09 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

thanks

I can be so provocative.

by Jo-Jo on Feb 12, 2009 5:11 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

but it's a good way to think

echo: congrats

Tony Bennett for Heisman!

by johnnycougar on Feb 12, 2009 6:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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