FanPost

Who to root for this week (updated)

Thanks to Pman for doing the legwork on this, and I apologize if I am stealing Pman's thunder, but I wanted to find out for myself all of the seeding possibilities for the Cougs this week now that Oregon did us a favor and beat OSU.

Best case scenario: We beat UW, OSU wins at USC but loses to UCLA, and Arizona gets swept at home (yeah right). That leaves us at 9-9 with Arizona, OSU and USC all at 8-10, good for the #5 seed uncontested. 

More likely scenarios if we beat UW:

1)  If the above happens but Arizona gets the more likely split at home, then we are tied at 9-9.  We split each other, split UW, split UCLA, and then the #5 goes to us if ASU finishes in 3rd or if Arizona loses to Cal but beats Stanford this week, since both of us would have been swept by Cal but we have the better record against ASU.  Arizona gets #5 if they beat Cal but lose to Stanford, on the tiebreakers.

2) Arizona sweeps at home, they get #5.  Then in any scenario in which both OSU and USC lose at least one this week, we'll get #6. 

3) Worst case if we beat UW is #7, assuming Arizona and USC both sweep.  We would be a game behind Arizona and lose the tiebreaker head to head with USC.  If OSU sweeps we would also be tied with them instead of USC, but we have the tiebreaker for our win over UW. 

4) Three team tie at 9-9.  Pman went over this in detail, but I think some of the specifics might have been wrong.  We will have a 3 team group of WSU, Arizona and either USC or OSU.  If it is USC, then we lose the 3 team tiebreakers with a record against the group of 1-3 (Arizona 2-2, USC 3-1) and get #7. If it is OSU, then we have the middle record (Arizona 3-1, WSU 2-2, OSU 1-3) and get #6.

If we lose to UW, things get trickier:

1) 4 team tie at 8-10.  This is incredibly unlikely imo and so I won't kill myself going thru it in detail.  Basically it would depend on how USC and OSU get to 8-10, but most scenarios end up with us losing all tiebreakers and getting #8. Best for us would be #7.

2) Arizona takes care of business.  Then we could either have a 3 team tie at 8-10 or either USC or OSU sweeps or gets swept and we end up in the middle at #7.  If OSU somehow sweeps and Oregon beats USC, we lose the tiebreaker with USC and get #8.  For the three team tie, we again go to group records and USC gets #6, then it depends on other results if we get #7 or #8, but likely we will get #7 due to our win over UCLA.

Worst Case Scenario: we lose to UW and OSU beats UCLA but loses to USC.  Then if Cal beats ASU we will end up at #8 no matter what Arizona does.

We would like: OSU to fall to UCLA but to beat USC.  If this happens, we will get #5 or #6 if we beat UW, and #6 or #7 if we lose. Also it would be nice for tiebreaker purposes if Arizona loses and ASU wins.

Root for OSU and ASU this week!

This FanPost does not necessarily reflect the views of the site's writers or editors, who may not have verified its accuracy. It does, however, reflect the views of this particular fan, which is just as important as the views of our writers or editors.

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