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Will Marcus be the next Kyle?

A lot has been said about the similarities between Kyle Weaver and Marcus Capers.  From first look, they both have that long and lean body type, with wingspans that stretch much farther than the average person.  As for their skills sets, both (as freshman) possessed a cover-your-eyes awful jump shot and above average on-ball defensive prowess.  As you all know, here at CougCenter, we like to look past the anecdotal evidence and jump into the numbers.

So how do the freshman years of Kyle and Marcus compare statistically?  To my suprise, their minute percentages were not as far apart as expected.  The one MAJOR difference that makes them hard to compare is the usage and shot percentage numbers.  When Kyle was in the game, he had the ball in his hands and was looking for his shot at nearly double the rate Marcus was.  There are a couple ways to explain this.  First, Kyle was just better at creating his own shot than Marcus was.  Kyle could get to the rim and he knew what to do when  he got there.  We've seen time and time again that Marcus can get to the rim, but despite his superior athleticism, finishing has not been his strong point.  Second, Kyle was the only person on that 04-05 team that could break down an opponent when the shot clock was winding down.  Thomas Kelati was largely a jump shooter and relied and screens to get himself open.  For the 07-08 team, there was one man and one man only who had the ball in his hands at the end of the clock, and his name was definitely not Marcus Capers.

How proficient were these guys at putting the ball in the basket when they got a shot off?  Not so great.  Kyle leads the way with a 39.5 eFG%, largely drug down by his 2 for 22 performance (that is what we call "Abe Lodwickesque") from beyond the arc.  Marcus mostly stayed away from the three point line and posted a blistering 31.9 eFG%.  As for free throws, Kyle has a higher free throw rate (because he took more shots overall) and Capers hit his opportunities more often when he got a chance.  Both percentages were nothing to write home about.

How about on defense?   Their block percentages are pretty much equal.  Kyle's steal% is considerably higher and he eventually became one of the best thieves in the nation.  Marcus commits a lot of fouls (4.5 per 40 minutes) and the data was not available to compare to Kyle.  There is not a whole lot else out there statistically speaking to compare defensively.

Additionally, Kyle had a much higher assist rate.  Kyle was an extremely gifted passer and he played point guard quite often as a freshman, so that is something to be expected.

Marcus obviously has the advantage in athleticism.  Kyle was average athletically, which makes what he achieved all the more remarkable.  Marcus is a high flyer and when he figures out what do when he gets to the rim, we are going to see some really exciting things happen.

So will Marcus become the next Kyle?  It may all come down to work ethic.  Kyle obviously put in the time to improve his jump shot and become a highly effective offensive player.  Marcus showed us against St. Mary's that there may be potential there.  Luckily for us, Tony seems to get the most out of his players and their skills sets (see Kyle Weaver, Derrick Low, Aron Baynes, etc.).  I personally am very excited for what Marcus can become once he figures out that the whole purpose of driving to the basket was to put the ball in the basket, not throw it wildly off the backboard.

Poll
What do you expect out of Marcus Capers?
He will a develop a solid offensive game and become an NBA prospect.
46 votes
He will be a great defensive player, but continue to be a liability on offense.
26 votes
He will be a role player on both ends of the floor.
13 votes
He will eventually lose his floor time to younger players.
4 votes

89 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 8 comments |

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Comments

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Before I read your comments....

I predict Marcus Capers is going to be a great college player with pro potential. He has a huge upside and I was thoroughly pleased with what I saw from him at the end of the season. He progressed tremendously. Him, Thompson and Casto may have just as big an impact on Coug basketball as Low, Weaver and Cowgill did. That’s as much of a compliment as I could give him at this point.

by SW WA Coug on Mar 28, 2009 6:12 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

After I read your comments....

I wouldn’t put too much stock in Capers’ stats this year. Confidence in your game isn’t something that can be measured. It’s going to be impossible for Bennett to keep him off the court the next three years and I saw enough from his shot during the St. Mary’s game to know he will develop just fine in that department. He reminds me of Nate McMillan.

by SW WA Coug on Mar 28, 2009 6:20 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

One thing that Weaver had was a sneaky...

ability to make big defensive and offensive plays (particularly passes).

How many times did he draw a charge in a critical juncture of a tight game that would help us seal a victory? I can think of several times (KSU at Pullman (freshman year) USC in LA (junior year), UW in Seattle vs B. Roy (sophmore year), etc.). He was just always there to make big plays on defense and had an uncanny ability to do that.

Also, how many times did he do his quick turnaround and steal the ball from the opponents in their backcourt attempting to pass the ball inbounds over the years? It happened many times. He was just a master at lulling an opponent to sleep and then making a big play against them.

I didn’t see that kind of court savvy or sneakiness from Capers. That is not to say he won’t have a very good career as a terrific on-ball defender at WSU. I also think his offensive ability (mainly shooting ability) may be better than what Kyle showed.

It was Kyle’s court savvy and craftiness that helped make him an excellent player, because as you say, he has average athleticism.

I like what Capers showed toward the end of the season, as I was one who found his offensive game frustrating to watch.

Capers has a great attitude and I think he’ll end up being a very good player for WSU. We need a 6’4" defensive stopper like him and I’m confident his offensive game will be adequate to good.

by westsidecougar1 on Mar 28, 2009 8:36 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Excellent points on Kyle

He had a knack for big offensive plays too. In that same USC game, he hit the game winner. You know where the only two threes he hit during his frosh year came from? In that near-miss Gonzaga game in Pullman. Simply put, Kyle was awesome.

This is where per game statistics go to die.

CougCenter

by Dancing Football on Mar 28, 2009 8:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This question is like asking....

If Bill Walton would be the next Lew Alcindor. You can certainly make a case for it but there will never be another quite like Lew Alcindor. With the exception of one game, Ucla was just as good with Walton as with Alcindor.

I merely wanted to make a case for Capers in the sense that he’s got the potential to be a really special player. I will measure his ultimate impact on how successful the team becomes. During Kyles first two years, it was marginal. During his last two years it was phenominal. Kyle was a leader. He made everyone around him better. He allowed Low to play the two. We exploited Kyle’s talents to the nth degree. It was fun to watch. We may never see another quite like him. I could never say enough about him as a player or as a person.

by SW WA Coug on Mar 29, 2009 8:26 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I think the most important point is simply that Bennett and his staff get the most out of everyone

I know the comparison is natural, but Kyle was one of a kind — his instincts were just ridiculous. What I think is noteworthy is that there are so many examples of guys getting so much better during their years in Pullman, it’s exciting to think what Capers’ upside is. And I think it’s considerable.

By the way, here is a neat and tidy side-by-side comparison of their freshman years:

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=kyle-weaver&i=1&kyle-weaver=2004-2005&p1=marcus-capers

by Nuss on Mar 29, 2009 9:30 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Definitely agree!

Also, I don’t think at this point it is fair to say that Marcus is way more athletic than Kyle was. I’d say more energetic, maybe, but Kyle was one of the best athletes we’ve ever had. He caught up with Westbrook (who had maybe a 10 foot head start) and swatted his shot, not too shabby. He juked OJ Mayo out of his socks while failing to get faked out in return all game. Kyle just made everything look easy, he was so relaxed / zen as a player, which is partly why he could “lull opponents to sleep” as noted by other posters.

Marcus has a long way to go, but Tony Bennett can get him there. In some ways I think our system doesn’t help Marcus – his energy and enthusiasm on defense are limited by a defensive mentality of “pack it in” when something like “full court press” might be better for him. On offense we will really need him to get to the hoop and be at least an occasional threat for a pull up jumper, which I think he can do. I hope I am underestimating his abilities, but I see his ceiling as Weaver’s junior year.

Tony Bennett for Heisman!

by johnnycougar on Mar 29, 2009 3:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think you will be seeing just a half-court....

pack-it-in defense or offense in the near future if we are going to become as athletic as I think we can be. I can forsee Tony allowing this group to evolve into much more than that, thus maximizing the abilities of the talent available. If just Thames and Brown are added to the mix, and maybe a Motum, I think the days of strictly half-court basketball are over for us. Just saying, but it is possible….

by SW WA Coug on Mar 29, 2009 5:54 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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