Pac-10 Weekend Wrap
by Jeff Nusser on Mar 3, 2009 2:54 PM PST
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PrintSorry this is a day late -- busy week. My thoughts will be abbreviated as well, but hopefully you'll have some thoughts of your own.
Dvieira over at Addicted To Quack used to coordinate a conference basketball power poll with the Pac-10 bloggers at SBN, but apparently nobody else really likes to vote other than me. So, he scrapped it. But fear not -- you'll still get my rankings for this week. Here's what my ballot would have been, with my thoughts on each team's weekend.
Just one more weekend to go!
1. Washington (1)
I don't know how much more I can say about Washington that I haven't already said. They're deep, they're -- gasp! -- disciplined, and they're clearly the class of the conference. Interesting note: The Huskies play Seattle U. tonight, and Ken Pomeroy gives the Redhawks exactly zero percent chance of winning.
2. UCLA (4)
The offense continues to be good, but the defense continues to be mediocre. Do you realize UCLA has allowed its opponent to exceed the national average in eFG% 17 times in 29 games this year? Compare that to the last two years, when it was 14 in 39 (2007-08) and 15 in 36 (2006-07). This team continues to strike me as one that could just as easily flame out in the first round of the NCAA Tournament as one that could go to the Elite Eight with the right or wrong matchups.
3. Cal (5)
This conference is such a mess in the middle right now. The Bears have lost 2 of 3, yet are ranked third? At least they didn't get swept last weekend like some other teams, and they very easily could have beaten both LA schools if not for what some are calling a classic Pac-10 ref job against UCLA. I kept thinking their reliance on shooting would bring them back down to earth at some point this season, but it's probably time to start recognizing that this team is just that good shooting the basketball, and that it might be poised to really do some damage in the postseason.
4. ASU (2)
The Sun Devils are tired, and that's bad news. James Harden looks like he did toward the end of last season -- there's only so much of a load a college player can carry, especially when he plays the game the way Harden does. Honestly, if ASU can beat the Bay Area schools at home this weekend, this is a team that probably would benefit more from an early flame-out in the Pac-10 tournament and the rest that would provide than from a deep run that might marginally improve their seeding.
5. WSU (8)
Nobody wants to be facing the Cougs right now. Nobody. Why? Because the defense is back: Just 85.0 and 93.4 efficiencies allowed to Arizona and Arizona State. As teams are wearing down, the Cougs are amping up with young, fresh legs who are bringing it with everything they've got for 20-25 minutes. Advantage, WSU. Too bad we're playing the deepest team in the conference this weekend ...
6. Arizona (3)
Speaking of tired teams, Russ Pennell is feeling the consequences of riding his big three so hard. With last year's terrible recruiting class, there is just so little depth in Tucson. Three games ago, the Wildcats were a tournament lock. Now? Lunardi's got them as one of his last four in after a disastrous run through the northwest that once again left them without a quality road win. Seriously, Arizona's best road win is ... Oregon State. Not exactly impressing the committee at some point. While the Wildcats would probably also benefit from an early loss in the Pac-10 tournament from a rest standpoint, but they probably can't afford it from a resume standpoint. Not an enviable position to be in.
7. Oregon State (7)
Too bad for the Beavers that their defense fell apart so dramatically in the second half against the Ducks. They were building a pretty legitimate NIT case, but now stand a game below .500 overall while preparing to visit USC and UCLA. Sweeping this weekend is an awful tall order, but that's probably what would be required to secure a postseason spot. That said, the future is darn bright in Corvallis. Whatever they're paying AD Bob De Carolis, they probably need to double it. With the success of the baseball team, football team and the hiring of Robinson, he'd be at the top of my list if I was looking for a new AD at Big Time University.
8. USC (6)
Yes, I know USC just lost to Stanford, and have lost six of seven. But look at that brutal stretch they've just completed -- five of seven on the road. It's the defense that's failed the Trojans in that time, a pretty stunning turnaround for a team that not too long ago was considered to have the premier defense in the Pac-10. There's a reason why coaches generally stay away from gimmick defenses -- they might work for a night, but good coaches always figure them out. The Trojans are fading, but with a quick turnaround this weekend, they could be right back in the hunt.
9. Stanford (9)
Thank goodness they beat USC. Otherwise, the Cardinal would be No. 10. Their defense is easily the worst in the conference outside of Eugene, and that's a killer the Pac-10.
10. Oregon (10)
Two wins in a row? Is armageddon on the horizon? In all seriousness, though, the defense was the difference for the Ducks in that second half comeback against the Beavers, as sure a sign as any that Ernie Kent really is making progress with this team.
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Seattle U has zero chance of winning because they are not ranked!
Let’s hope someone steps on Isaiah’s foot. Oops, is that mean?
I cannot wait for our game
Now that Capers has earned Tony’s trust, I expect to see a lot of him against UW. He can guard either Thomas or Dentmon but I would imagine he’ll mostly guard Thomas to try to bother him with length and quickness, whereas Taylor probably can keep up with Dentmon easier.
Tony Bennett for Heisman!
I think OSU might sneak in if they can score 2 more wins
Maybe USC on the road and then Stanford in the Pac-10 tournament, since Dawkins seems to have no answers to their offense. Keep in mind, there are now 129 postseason slots (though 10-15 of those will probably go to sub-#129 teams)— by the Pomeroy Rankings, if nothing else, they ought to be a postseason team.
When you’re a startup third-tier postseason tournament looking for a viewer angle, getting Robinson isn’t the worst idea in the world.
Speaking of tired… Does Tim Floyd just not believe in backups, or are all of his bench slots occupied by rappers? 3 different players— 3!— played 45 minutes against Cal, including the team’s center. Taj Gibson is a robust dude, but even he has to be feeling some major strain at this point.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
You've got a point about the PR angle on Robinson
As for Floyd … I dunno. Seems like about half the conference is doing that, running their guys into the ground right now. The teams that are doing it the worst are the ones that have lost one-and-done guys in recent years. It can’t be an accident.
Maybe they're right to do it, I don't know
Lord knows the “deep bench” strategy ain’t working for Stanford. They’d be better off just sticking Goods, Hill, and Fields out there 37 minutes a game and hoping for the best.
If you thought this year was bad, next year’s Pac-10 is going to have some insanely shallow teams in it. Arizona’s projected starting lineup is Nic Wise, Jamelle Horne, Zane Johnson, Kyle Fogg and… jeez, I can’t even find a fifth starting caliber player on that roster. Stanford has seven scholarship players next season, thanks to Johnny Dawkins’s decision to spend the summer in Beijing instead of bothering to recruit anyone. Major advantage to WSU if they can harness their full roster.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
I think there has to be a balance
Somehow, you’ve got to steal some minutes somewhere. You can’t just play guys 38, 39, 40 minutes every night and expect them to not wear down. The guys in the conference who have been able to do that and maintain a high level of play is very small — there are 7 guys who have played more than 85 percent of their team’s minutes, and I think you could argue that the only two guys who seem unaffected are Taylor Rochestie and Jerome Randle. (Maybe Hackett, too, but he doesn’t really do anything other than distribute.)
And he's getting stronger as the season is going along
He is more and more impressive with each passing week. Brace yourself for a whole ’nother year of “How in the heck did the California schools let this guy get away?” :-P
Hackett does nothing but distribute?
I find this a confusing statement. He’s a. basically a combo guard, as their “true point” prospect was killed in some freak accident a season or two ago, and b. averaging 12 ppg (and just scored 26 against Cal on Thursday). They would prefer to move him to the #2 and have someone else running the point— they just don’t have anyone to fill that role.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
I guess I just mean that's basically his role in the offense
He’s fifth on the team in percentage of shots taken and possessions used, but first in assist rate (10th in the conference). You’re right that they’d like him off the ball, because with a 25% TO rate, he just kills too many possessions — something he hasn’t really improved at all in his three years in LA.
Arizona is bound to recruit some stud freshman for this next year.
But then again… without Lute Olsen… who knows…
This is going to be another lost recruiting class for them
Scout.com shows that Arizona has zero guys signed for next year. This is a huge problem, because remember, the class that comes in next year is already signed — and all those potential recruits are already heading to other schools.
That will be two pretty awful recruiting classes in a row, as the top two guys from that class — Brandon Jennings and Jeff Withey — either never made to to campus or have already left. Whoever takes over this program is going to have a major job on their hands with the departures of Budinger, Hill and Wise. That team is staring a 10th place finish right in the face.
They signed some juco guy
but otherwise, it’s a lost year. And on top of that, they seem to have committed violations.
It’s not quite an Indiana-level mess for the next coach, but it’s pretty close. Russ Pennell might be downright happy to migrate to Seton Hall or Oregon or whoever else has an open job…
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
There will probably be a few stragglers to be picked up
But nobody that’s going to make a big enough difference for them. They’re in big trouble, because here’s what Indiana has going for it that Arizona does not: It’s Indiana. Arizona is not IU. They’re going to find very quickly that their success was tied much more closely to Lute Olson than they want to admit.
They had a whole boatload of recruits who went elsewhere after Olson retired for good
Gaddy was the headliner, but there were a number of others as well.
I will say one thing, though— all indications are that their athletic department is gearing up to go after a heavy hitter. They’re going to spend, spend, spend to get a big-time coach. That doesn’t always work (see: Gillespie, Billy), but they won’t take conference doormat status lightly.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
No more power poll? So what?
but apparently nobody else really likes to vote other than me.
And that’s why Nuss is amazing.
I do it more for myself and you guys than for them, anyway
It was just a nice bonus to vote on that, too. Oh well.
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