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The key to slowing down UW's offense

The last time the Cougs and Dawgs met, it wasn’t pretty for Wazzu fans.  UW came out focused and determined to break the streak of seven victories WSU held over them.  They pulled away in the second half en route to a 68-48 victory.  This final score was a bit inflated due to some late game fouling and desperation turnovers, but UW was definitely in control.

So what can be done to make up those 20 points plus one for the victory?  Two stats stand out from that game, and they are both on the defensive end.

Thanks in large part to a 6 of 11 showing from downtown, UW was able to post a 53.9 eFG%.   That is well above the Coug’s season average allowed of 44.8%.  This becomes really disturbing when you take a look at what UW was able to do when they weren’t making shots.

The Huskies crashed the offensive glass to the tune of a 45.1 offensive rebounding percentage.  To put that in perspective, the Cougs lead the nation in defensive rebounding percentage and on average allow offensive rebounds at a 24.6% clip.  It wasn’t Jon Brockman doing all the damage either, as he was limited to four total rebounds and two on offense, this was a total team effort.

So did the Cougs put forth a lazy effort?  Were they skimping on the hustle plays by not boxing out or closing on shooters?  Maybe, but the root cause of these breakdowns can be summed up in two proper nouns.

Isaiah Thomas.

This guy is good.  He is super quick, has great body control, and shoots just well enough from the outside to keep the defender honest.  In the initial meeting, he started off by nailing several long jumpers in the first half.  He eventually went cold from outside, but the defense still had to play up on him because the threat to shoot was there.  This led to easy penetration, which as we know leads to help defense.  Help defense leaves guys free to shoot wide-open threes and attack the boards.  Hence, the absurdly high OR% and eFG% numbers.

So what has changed since then that will make a difference?  Marcus Capers.  His minutes have increased dramatically.  He moves well laterally and can keep Thomas in front, but if and when Thomas does get by, Marcus has the length to make up for it.  Marcus only played six minutes in the Pac 10 opener.  He will be in the starting lineup on Saturday.  My hope is that Tony sticks Klay on Pondexter, Taylor on Dentmon, and Marcus on Thomas.  We have seen in the past how a lengthy skilled defender (Kyle Weaver) can bother smaller guards.  Marcus seems to be Kyle 2.0 on the defensive side, but with the potential to be even better because of his athleticism.

I’m a firm believer in length being the cure all on the defensive end.  Nothing beats a hand in the face of the offensive player when they are trying to shoot or pass.  If Marcus can bother Isaiah enough to force bad passes, that will give defenders more time to close out on shooters.  Better yet, if Marcus can just keep him out of the lane altogether, everyone can just stay home and those open looks and offensive rebounds can be minimized.

It is easier said than done, but we need a solid defensive effort from the defender on Isaiah Thomas this weekend. The man who has the best chance of doing this is Marcus.  Shut down Isaiah and the rest of the team will struggle.  Remember, the rest of them are mostly that underachieving bunch that struggled for the last two years.

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This seems to be the theme of this late-season surge

We’ve got athletes to compete with UW now where we didn’t earlier this year. We rode the old slow guys in that second half (with the exception of Klay) and it just didn’t work against an athletic team such as Washington.

Where we’re a vastly different team than the one that took the floor in early January, I’m not so sure that Washington is all that much better. They’ve pretty much played at that same high level all season long.

by Jeff Nusser on Mar 3, 2009 5:03 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

sweet!

glad I waited around at work to catch this, nice work!

Tony Bennett for Heisman!

by johnnycougar on Mar 3, 2009 5:38 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Thank you!

I’m glad you enjoyed.

by Dancing Football on Mar 4, 2009 8:53 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

IT's Free Throws

Thomas’s free throws have also gone seriously downhill toward the end of the season, for no discernible reason as far as I can tell. I think he was 3 for 10 at one point against Arizona.

I do worry about our young guys in that atmosphere on Saturday, though. Hec Ed is a tough place to play when the huskies are bad. (I think they’ve beaten UCLA four times in a row at home.) I worry about our guys getting off to a slow start, which could spell doom.

That said, Klay hasn’t missed a shot in like 14 games. My pick: Cougs by 67.

by Pman on Mar 3, 2009 5:44 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

IT is the difference for Washington

It’s amazing how much a difference one player can make. Suddenly Dentmon is player of the year? Slowing down IT will be a big key, and hopefully Capers can handle the crowd and the atmosphere as well as Thomas.

I think the other key will be handling Brockman. Obviously, this falls on Aron. I just see Brockman playing well in his final home game. Or maybe being too amped up and missing everything, aka some of our seniors Saturday.

by 02Coug on Mar 3, 2009 6:39 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Remember, the rest of them are mostly that underachieving bunch that struggled for the last two years.

That they underachieved the last two years is irrelevant. Justin Dentmon was a disappointment the last two years, yes, but this year he’s a Pac-10 POY candidate. Quincy Pondexter didn’t live up to expectations his freshman and sophomore years, but this year he has carried the team through stretches. Jon Brockman is still Jon Brockman. You’re playing against this year’s team, not last year’s.
I don’t think that there’s any reason to believe that if you shut down Thomas the rest of the team will struggle. Even if you’re forcing him to take shots that he’s missing, one of UW’s best offenses is the missed shot. Also, Brockman, Pondexter and Dentmon have all, at one point or another, taken over games throughout this season.

by thecassino on Mar 3, 2009 6:55 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Not saying he's going to win it

But he’s in the discussion. Hence “candidate.”

And that’s beside the point. He’s one of the best guards in the conference however you slice it.

by thecassino on Mar 3, 2009 7:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

He's one of the best scoring guards in the conference

Which is nice, but it’s not POY material. Any POY conversation starts (and almost certainly ends) with James Harden, continues to (possibly) Darren Collison, Jordan Hill and Jerome Randle … and then stops. To take it one step further, I’d consider Jon Brockman a much more legitimate candidate for that award than Dentmon. And I know I could make a compelling argument that Taylor Rochestie has had a year more deserving of POY than Dentmon.

But you’re right. It’s beside the point. He’s been good at putting the ball in the basket, and the Cougs most definitely have to account for him.

by Jeff Nusser on Mar 3, 2009 7:53 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That Dentmon is a "candidate" is absurd

Dentmon isn’t even the most important player on his team, let alone the POY for the conference. Brockman and Thomas mean more the Huskies, and the team would be drastically different without them.

If Dentmon finishes in the top 5 in voting, it just shows that Pac 10 writers have lost touch with the conference.

Harden
Collison
Hill
Brockman
Randle

That’s my top five.

by 02Coug on Mar 3, 2009 8:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know how you can say that Thomas is more important than Dentmon.

When a game is on the line the ball is in Dentmon’s hands. He’s their only consistent threat from 3. He’s their best free throw shooter.
I can see an argument being made for Brockman being more important, but Dentmon is every bit as valuable to the team as Thomas, if not more so.

by thecassino on Mar 3, 2009 8:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

At least to me...

I am more worried about Thomas than Brockman or Dentmon, so in that sense I would say he is more important. If we get Thomas to struggle offensively or even better get into foul trouble, a lot of the dribble penetration will stop. Maybe I haven’t watched enough Husky games this year, but it sure seems like that is the key to UW’s offense. Brockman / QP / other forwards get so many points from weak side help defenders leaving them alone, whether it is from a nice pass under the basket or an easy offensive rebound and putback. In my opinion, if we can turn UW into a jump shooting team, even one that runs at a fast pace, the Cougs will win this game. That is why I am more worried about IT.

Tony Bennett for Heisman!

by johnnycougar on Mar 3, 2009 8:37 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Excellent analysis

Couldn’t have said it better myself.

by Jeff Nusser on Mar 3, 2009 9:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Unless my memory is faulty...

Which is possible, it was Dentmon that turned the ball over to Harden in the ASU game at the end. That’s why I don’t value Dentmon as much as Thomas and Brockman. Your right, they put the ball in his hands. And I think he is just as likely to make a bad decision as a good one. Thomas is better at creating a shot for someone else then Dentmon, and Brockman is a better decision maker.

Dentmon is benefitting from having the pressure reduced this year, and his scoring is up. But there should be more to POY then being a scorer.

by 02Coug on Mar 3, 2009 9:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Percentage of Possessions used

Thomas is in the top 100 of the country at 28.1%, while Dentmon is at 22.8. That is the statistical evidence why Thomas is more important.

by Dancing Football on Mar 4, 2009 8:44 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

There's more to basketball than just making a shot....

Because if that’s what it’s all about, then you could make a case for others as well. Dentmon is a nice role player, but outside of that limited role, he’s not asked to do much else nor is much else expected of him. Defense is the another part of the equation and I never hear his name mentioned in that vein.

by SW WA Coug on Mar 3, 2009 8:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Thomas makes all the difference here

Last year, Dentmon was the one driving to the basket and dishing out to Appleby, who’s offensive game was limited to jump shots. Dentmon had to take much more difficult shots himself. This year, it is Thomas doing the driving and kicking, and Dentmon is benefitting with open looks. His efGs has shot up from last year, from 47.9 to 56.6. No one becomes that much better of a shooter over the course of an offseason. He is just getting better looks because of the attention Isaiah is drawing.

by Dancing Football on Mar 4, 2009 8:57 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Explain to me please...

With all this talk about Thomas being the main threat – how have the Cougs done against similar threats on other squads? I certainly don’t analyze the games as much as you guys (thank you for picking up THAT ball, btw), but I feel that we’ve handled “superstars” pretty well before. PLEASE, I am trying desperately to have lots of hope come Saturday. I have the hope that most Cougs do – that we can beat any frickin’ team on any frickin’ day, because we are the Cougs – but I look to you as the analytical, statistical experts to give me solid numbers, that I can throw into the face of my arrogant, cocky, holier-than-thou UW friends. Give me hope.

Be honest. Against Thomas – is there precedent?

I love CougCenter. I do not like the Huskies (understatement, I am being polite). And above all else – above my love for Pizza Pipeline, Long Island iced tea from Rancho Viejo, and the fry sauce at Cougar Country – I love the Cougs.

by TrueCoug on Mar 3, 2009 9:37 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Precedent

Without going too much into this statistically, more anecdotally:

Home vs. Baylor – Overall we did pretty well against the highly regarded backcourt, not giving up easy shots and making them work on defense. We felt okay about losing this one but we would have felt terrible if only we knew how mediocre Baylor eventually turned out to be. If Rochestie shoots better than 3-14 we win that game.

Home vs. Gonzaga – Pargo absolutely brutalized us, getting 11 points on 5-7 shooting with 10 assists. Mainly Rochestie guarding him if I recall correctly.

Home vs. Washington – Thomas and Dentmon lit us up, and below average games from Brockman and Pondexter were more than enough to cruise to victory. We stuck with TR and Nik guarding those two for most of the game, with Klay taking turns. It was just frustrating to watch how easily we were broken down. Capers got 6 minutes.

Home vs. Cal – We held Randle in check thanks to solid D from all our guards, but unfortunately Christopher went off on us. This was becoming a pattern, we could do okay focusing on a couple guys but we didn’t have great team defense yet.

At Oregon – We won, but not because we shut down TP. Mostly it was a solid effort by the whole team to win the boards and punch it inside. Nik’s minutes are starting to slip in favor of Capers.

Home vs. UCLA – We guarded everyone but Drago the first half very well and it took a great performance from Caleb to keep us in the game. Capers played solid D on Collison until the end of the game, when great players do what they do. We tried several different guards on Collison in the last few minutes but to no avail.

At ASU – Harden is bigger than most of the guards that had been giving us problems, allowing Klay and Casto to take turns guarding him. We did this very well, and Rochestie / Capers did enough on Glasser and Kuksis (sp?) to gut out a victory. However the real story was Klay shooting 8-10 from 3, which obviously energized our whole team, perhaps contributing to the stellar defense.

At Arizona – Rochestie and Nik did a pretty good job on Wise. We lost that game more because Hill and Budinger played excellently than anything else. Oh, and we had as many turnovers as assists and only shot 7 free throws. I thought this was when our defense started to come together, and our bigger problem was our inconsistent and timid offense.

At Cal – more or less a repeat performance of the last Cal game. Randle had a better game this time around. Capers barely got off the bench and the sound of Jo-Jo ripping his hair out was heard as far away as Denver.

Home vs. Oregon – totally shut down everything Oregon wanted to do, allowing only 5 assists the whole game. What a great win!

At UCLA – Collison had a good game by the numbers but couldn’t create quite as much in the closing minutes as he did in Pullman. Note that Capers played the last seven to ten minutes of the game and even if he wasn’t the one guarding Collison all the time, overall our team defense was better. This was also when Baynes and Casto really started clicking together on the interior, and this game wouldn’t have been close if not for insane 3 point shooting by UCLA at the end.

Home vs. Arizona – this time Wise actually did better against us in the first half, but Capers totally shut him down the second half. The one clear time I remember him getting beat was when Wise ran into the tank that is Casto and went down for a couple minutes. Arizona’s offense stagnated as the guards completely shut off penetration, and the only real offense came from Hill.

Home vs. ASU – basically the same as before, but this time Glasser played better against Rochestie as Capers took much of the responsibility guarding Harden. Klay also guarded him, and the improvement in Klay’s on the ball D over the year started to really show up.

I kind of got carried away with this, sorry! Basically, the last few weeks we have really gotten better at keying in on certain players and shutting them down. The problem we will face with UW is that they have multiple threats and it will take great team defense to keep them all at bay. I feel confident that Capers can limit IT’s effectiveness. In terms of stopping his one on one penetration, I actually think Klay would be the best choice, though IT probably would lose him on screens more often. Capers has gotten really good at running through / around screens and unless IT hits his mercurial outside shot more often than not, Capers can be very effective. I’m sure if you want serious numbers, someone else can put them up.

Tony Bennett for Heisman!

by johnnycougar on Mar 3, 2009 11:04 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Above the fry sauce?

Now that’s just crazy talk.

by Jeff Nusser on Mar 4, 2009 7:15 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

One thing about being a Coug is more than any other fan

we can honestly spot the strengths of an opposing team. I second this thread about IT for making a difference for UW. He is like Nic Wise. Super quick and is able to create contact in the lane, but still give himself a chance to score.
After watching him, my only thought was his could guard this guy on the team. Thank goodness that Capers has improved so that he is not a tremendous liability on the offensive end as I think he gives us the best chance to guard IT as IT will use his shoulder and free arm to create separation and nothing is better for a defender to get knocked back but be able to still extend his hand to change the shot.
The only reason why many of the guys on UW are now succeeding is directly attributable to the play of IT. He is good, really good and I hope he goes pro soon.
As far as Brockman I predict 12 pts and 19 boards. He always does this against us, but for 7 of the last 8 games it really hasn’t impacted us until IT created easy open shots for Dentom, Pondexter, etc. in the last game. Again, simply a difference maker like Nic Wise.
My biggest pet peeve with TB’s recruiting is that he doesn’t target the 5-9 or 5-10 cat quick PGs. They like size for rebounding and defense. Can I have at least one cat quick guy?

by ptowncoug3012 on Mar 3, 2009 10:05 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I'm also a big fan of the undersized point guards

Non-headline programs can get better players that way because they aren’t NBA prospects (and they also aren’t threats to leave early). When you’re trying to find underrecruited players, the best places to look are undersized guys, great shooters, and “hustle players”. And foreign players, I guess.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Mar 4, 2009 1:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

IT is the exact opposite of James Harden.

Whereas Harden makes his living off of being a big, physical guard who bulls (some might say charges) into the lane/his defender and wins via superior strength, IT thrives by being quicker than his opponents. It’ll take something different to contain IT on saturday than it did to stop Harden. Against Harden, we had the luxury of sticking someone on him that he couldn’t out-physical in DeAngelo Casto because Harden is not quick enough to burn our freakishly athletic power forward.

For a player like Thomas, we don’t have anyone who can match up with him solely on speed. I think Capers is our best bet because his length (which, just like Dee’s athleticism, is freakish) can be combined with decent quickness to slow IT down. And I agree, shutting down IT will strike a major blow against the Huskies. Without him playing well, their other players, particularly Dentmon and Pondexter will suffer as well. Least susceptible to this effect will be Brockman, who is a beast and will need to played well by Aron.

by jj_fekl on Mar 3, 2009 10:06 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

BY THE WAY

I refuse to get into this Twitter thing, but for whoever posts the updates, Tony Bennett’s radio show got pushed back a day because there is no Thursday game. It will be tomorrow, I believe at the same time as usual.

Tony Bennett for Heisman!

by johnnycougar on Mar 3, 2009 11:10 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

One thing that killed us was in the UW game

was that IT would drive just outside the free throw lanes, we would collapse and Dentom would swing in behind him at the 3 pt line, and IT would kick it out for a wide open 3. Did this 3 or 4 times against us.

by ptowncoug3012 on Mar 4, 2009 8:39 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Yep

That’s why we need to shut down Thomas.

by Dancing Football on Mar 4, 2009 8:46 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Apologies for the formatting

I copy and pasted from word, which is what I usually do. Not quite sure how that happened.

by Dancing Football on Mar 4, 2009 8:40 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I just hope that if the refs are going to let the dogs play very physical...

then they also allow us to play equally physical.

I don’t want to have to beat 8 guys…and we all know how big of an advantage the dogs have had in free throw shot attempts at home this season. It’s gotten ridiculous.

Let both teams play physically…or not. Bottom line.

by westsidecougar1 on Mar 4, 2009 8:14 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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