Seeding Possibilities for Saturday
by Grady Clapp on Mar 6, 2009 8:34 AM PST
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PrintBy the way, I could not be more excited that a Cougar team most of us wrote off after the second USC loss has a shot at fifth place in the conference this weekend. Let's start with the most optimistic scenario and work our way down.
If we beat UW: (Updated 12:45 PM for accuracy - thanks PaulThomas)
We earn fifth place if Oregon State beats USC. Doesn't matter what Arizona does, since we would have the tie-break thanks to wins over UCLA and UW.
We earn sixth place if USC beats Oregon State and Arizona loses.
We earn seventh place if both USC and Arizona win, forcing a three-way tie. (see comments as to why that might not be so bad).
If we lose to UW:
If USC and Arizona lose, we have a four-way tie for fifth place in the conference. It's weird. I assume the tie-break is head to head record against those teams, so...
Arizona: 4-2
Oregon St: 3-3
USC: 3-3
WSU: 2-4
This is the worst possible scenario for us, and it only magnifies how big those home losses to USC and Oregon State were. We'd finish eighth in the conference, and not only have to play an early game in the Pac-10 tournament, but play a decent Stanford team. Hope this doesn't happen (it is a long shot, with Arizona and USC playing at home with superior teams).
Now, if both USC and Arizona win, we find ourselves alone in seventh place.
If USC wins and Arizona loses, we earn seventh place because a loss to UW gives the Wildcats the tie-break edge over us.
If Arizona wins and USC loses, we also get seventh place since we lose the tie-breaker to the Trojans.
So here's the basic jist: If we win, we get fifth, sixth, or seventh. If we lose, seventh or eighth. You can see why this is a huge game for WSU.
If we win Saturday, root for Oregon State and Stanford. If we lose, root for USC and/or Arizona.
Although, maybe the six seed and the first-round bye isn't really what we need. Think about it: the Cougars need not only quality wins, but quantity of wins. A first round matchup against the ten-seed Ducks could help us out in the W column. In that case, we're better off with seventh.
Regardless, don't worry about the seed so much tomorrow and just root for the Cougs.
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If we end up fifth or sixth in the conference that would be remarkable
Considering after the USC loss it seemed to be impossible to finish any higher than 8th.
This is where per game statistics go to die.
CougCenter
Also
Regardless of seed, lets just beat UW
Because I hate them.
This is where per game statistics go to die.
CougCenter
Plus
If we beet them, it pretty much guarantees they drop to the 2 seed as long as UCLA takes care of Oregon. UW-UCLA would be tied with head to heads, Cal is 3rd pretty much wether they lose Saturday or not. So UCLA would be the one seed and UW the 2.
We earn sixth place if USC beats Oregon State. Go Craig Robinson. Again, ‘Zona doesn’t matter thanks to their loss to Cal last night. If the Cougs win, they finish at least sixth in conference. Not bad.
This is wrong, I think. If Arizona, USC, WSU win, there’s a 3-way tie at 9-9. At that point USC wins head-to-head 3-1 over Arizona (2-2) and WSU (1-3) which falls into 7th place. (Similarly, an OSU-Arizona-WSU tie puts the Cougars in 6th place, and an OSU-WSU-USC tie puts the Cougars in 8th place.)
Ironically, as noted, this might actually be the best scenario for WSU. Win @ Washington, beat Oregon, beat Washington again, beat Cal might be the only path to an at-large bid for WSU.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
PaulThomas is right
Arizona holds the tiebreak over the Cougs. Count on it.
n/m PaulThomas is wrong
if we beat UW, we own tiebreak over AZ
Actually check out Grippi's blog
He got word from the Pac-10 that in the case of this 3 way tie, USC wins the overall tie breaker as has been said. But then WSU and Arizona go into their own tie breaker for 6th where WSU would win the battle due to their wins over ASU. (In the case WSU beats UW).
Here's the quote from Grippi
The conference’s official word is, in the case of the USC, UA and WSU ending up in three-way tie (all winning Saturday), USC would finish fifth due to its 3-1 record in games between the teams. Then UA and WSU’s tie would be settled under the rules of the two-team tiebreaker. That means, because both would have defeated UW and UCLA once and lost both to Cal, WSU’s two wins over ASU (UA lost twice to the Sun Devils) would break the tie in WSU’s favor and the Cougars would be sixth. THIS IS FROM THE PAC-10 OFFICE as relayed by WSU basketball SID Jessica Schmick.
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