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Brockman/Baynes not the key matchup you might think

A lot of people are pointing to limiting Jon Brockman’s impact on the game today as a key for the Cougars to win. I don’t think that’s necessarily the case.

Historically, Brockman hasn’t had his best games against WSU. The reason is simple: Aron Baynes is precisely the kind of player that gives Brockman fits. For all of Brockman’s hustle, grit and savvy, at 6-foot-7 and 255 pounds – which I tend to think is probably exaggerated on both counts – he just can’t really get around or over a 6-foot-10, 250-pound brick wall no matter how much he tries.

While Brockman’s rebounding percentages in games against the Cougs have been more or less in line with his season numbers over the past three seasons, his offensive ratings have been decidedly below par – just 88.5 in those contests. Additionally, Brockman was a virtual non-factor in that blowout win on Jan. 3, with just an 87 offensive rating (sixth on the team) and 9 percent each offensive and defensive rebounding.

So what killed us in that opener? Besides Justin Dentmon’s long-range shooting and our own inability to cope with the press, it was the offensive rebounding by every other Husky. The Cougars are the No. 1 defensive rebounding team in the country – gobbling up an astounding 75.4 percent of defensive rebounding opportunities – but the Huskies showed that day why they’re the No. 2 offensive rebounding team in the country, grabbing a ridiculous 45.1 percent of their offensive rebounding opportunities. That is a season-high allowed for the Cougs.

The reason was simple: The dribble penetration the Cougs repeatedly allowed.

It’s not that the Huskies have a ton of exceptional rebounders; it’s just that their dribble penetration demands help from other defenders, which then leaves other offensive players – such as Quincy Pondexter, Darnell Gant and Matthew Bryan-Amaning – free to crash the glass with no one boxing out. And when guys have the kind of the length and athletic ability those three do, you better have a body on them or you’re going to lose a 50/50 ball every time.

So here’s the key to today’s game: Keep the Huskies from penetrating at all costs. Brockman will probably get his rebounds, but if the Cougars can contain penetration to the degree that they don’t need help from defenders off the ball, it will limit the offensive rebounding opportunities.

It’s also going to be important for DeAngelo Casto to keep his emotions in check and not obsess about blocking every shot. Whenever you go for a block, you have to leave your man. Casto will have to be smart and pick and choose spots where he’s: A) Pretty certain he’ll get the block, and B) Not likely to give up an easy put back if he doesn’t get the block.  

 

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I agree that this matchup is not that key

Because in the end, it’s probably about a push. Unless one player plays particularly good or bad, this matchup likely will not determine the outcome.

http://www.spartyandfriends.com/

by thecassino on Mar 7, 2009 11:17 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Unless UW doesn't double Baynes and he makes about 10 of 15 shots in the paint

But with UW length and given that Baynes is only an adequate passer out of the post, I don’t see any way that UW doesn’t throw bodies at him every time he touches the ball.

by Jeff Nusser on Mar 7, 2009 11:26 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe he will make 10 of 15

He should after that abysmal senior day shooting performance. I didn’t even think he ever missed that baby hook, and he almost every single one he took. By the way, the cable guy has come and gone and I am set!

This is where per game statistics go to die.

CougCenter

by Dancing Football on Mar 7, 2009 11:43 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It depends on what Romar's strategy is

If he’d rather give Baynes a couple of easier looks, or double and maybe open up a few looks from three. This year with Gant coming off of his redshirt and MBA being a bigger contributor it has seemed like Romar has been less inclined to double and likes those guys to try to alter shots from the weak side. I’m sure we’ll see a combination of both, depending on who is on the floor.

O/T, I know some of you guys are stat nerds (like myself), and I thought this was hilarious.

“Correlation doesn’t imply causation, but it does waggle its eyes suggestively and gesture furtively while mouthing ‘look over there’.”

http://www.spartyandfriends.com/

by thecassino on Mar 7, 2009 11:56 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That last paragraph exactly describes what I'm worried about

If Casto comes over from the weak side, GET THE BLOCK!

Also, cassino, I saw that and loved it!

Tony Bennett for Heisman!

by johnnycougar on Mar 7, 2009 11:58 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

ASU is a different team today.

http://www.spartyandfriends.com/

by thecassino on Mar 7, 2009 12:20 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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