NCAA BASEBALL REGIONAL PREVIEW: No. 1 Oklahoma

by Grady. on May 28, 2009 7:00 AM PDT in Cougar Baseball Comment 9 comments

J.T. Wise is a better hitter than you.

In an effort to get you as fired up as possible for WSU's return to the NCAA baseball tournament, here is the second of our three capsule previews of WSU's potential opponents at the regional this weekend at Oklahoma. We'll culminate Thursday night with the Cougs' opening opponent, Arkansas.

If you're unfamiliar with any of the statistics we reference -- you'll remember from basketball season how much we hate raw statistics and love rate statistics -- just click on the link for an explanation. You can find all the stats we're referencing here.

Record: 41-18 (17-10 Big XII)

Coach: Sunny Golloway (5th Season, 127-78-1*)

How they got here: At-large bid from the Big XII conference. Oklahoma is ranked #10 in the current ESPN/USA Today coaches poll.

NCAA Tournament history: Two National Championships (1951, 1994). This is their second straight NCAA tournament appearance, and 32nd overall. They have 22 regular season conference titles. So yeah, they've been there.

The season in a nutshell: The Sooners roared out to a 5-1 start, before becoming the first traditional baseball power stupid enough to travel to Pullman in February. There, they split with the good guys, two games apiece. They'll have the weather on their side this time around.

The split in the Palouse must've motivated OU, as they won their next ten, including a three game sweep of UCLA. Then the Sooners just kept on winning, with an occasional loss here and there. The team was 29-8 heading into a three game series against eventual number one NCAA tournament seed Texas. They were swept in Austin.

OU recovered and finished strong, 11-5 down the stretch, including an 8-1 win over fellow regional opponent Wichita State. Promise of a Big XII tournament championship eroded quickly as the Sooners dropped two of three close games to Texas A&M and Missouri.

Standing in the batter's box, you don't want to face ... Ryan Duke. Yes, I know ERA is a flawed stat, but just humor me for a second here. Duke's 2.78 ERA in 24 appearances for the Sooners is pretty impressive, considering his aluminum-bat wielding opposition. If you prefer more advanced stats, his 4.52 FIP (fielding-independent pitching) is one of the best on the team. His 29.2 strikeout percentage is equally imposing. WSU has to hope the game doesn't get into his hands in the ninth. Duke has 15 saves on the year and holds opponents to a .197 batting average. He also boasts a nearly 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Not a bad hurler at all.

Looking down from the hill, don't give anything to hit to ... J.T. Wise. The 2009 Big XII Player of the Year, Wise posted a dominating 1.131 OPS. His 17 homers and .374 average led the Sooners. His .329 ISO blows away most of his teammates. He's also a catcher, a position that normally finds itself an offensive liability.

The Sooners could win the regional if ... The pitching staff comes through. The best batting team in the Big XII, Oklahoma is only mediocre in the conference rankings when it comes to pitching. OU has to shine on its biggest stage yet after a disappointing Big XII tourney appearance.

Incredibly, OU has only played seven games this season against Top 25 teams, and went 3-4 in those games. As highly ranked as they are going into the tournament, one has to wonder if they are truly battle tested.

The Sooners will be 0-2-barbecue if ... The offense flames out and the Sooners are forced to play some pitchers' duels. Not likely, but possible. The 2-2 record this season against WSU bodes well for the Cougars' chances. However, OU will still be able to put its best pitchers on the mound early in the regional, and can easily overpower anyone in the bracket. The Sooners are a good defensive team as well, playing with the added element of home-field advantage. It will be hard to bet against the Sooners in this regional.

* there are ties in baseball?

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For some comparison, here's how ridiculous their offense is

The Cougs’ have three guys with an OPS higher than .931 — Alex Burg, Jared Prince and Jay Ponciano. Why is .938 significant? That’s Oklahoma’s team OPS. Yeow.

The good news is that if we face Oklahoma, the rest of the pitching staff beyond Friday starter Andrew Doyle is very vulnerable. The Sooners gave up 17(!) runs to Texas A&M in the second game of the Big 12 Tournament, where they were just 1-2 in pool play. Presumed No. 2 starter Garrett Richards gave up four runs in less than six innings in game three when they were eliminated.

CougCenter

by Jeff Nusser on May 28, 2009 9:11 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

It takes a lot of pitching depth to win a regional....

It’s the one reason why I think the Cougs have a chance. Our bullpen seems to be pretty solid, keeping us in games where we fall behind. I think I read where we’ve had to come from behind something like 16-17 times this season for a win. We did it late in the season twice each against OSU and UW. It’s the difference between us staying home or heading to Norman.

Our bats produce just enough for us to compete but we have to get more from a couple guys to put us in a little better position. OSU got hot when they won the whole thing back-to-back. Winning is contagious, so is hitting. I’d much rather have solid pitching backed up by solid defense than have a team that is marginal on the mound but is capable of lighting you up at the plate. Good pitching almost always dominates good hitting.

We have an ace in Matt Way. Chad Arnold is very solid, especially if he gives himself and the defense a chance by not putting runners on base by walks. Stilley is very solid as well, but he’s been pitching sporadically lately. Our bullpen has come to the rescure each time these guys have struggled. Arkansas is going to pitch around Prince and Ponciano, you can count on it. We need a couple bats around them to make Arkansas pay. The key will be to get a lead and not over extend our starters, keeping them as fresh as possible in case we need one extra inning out of them later in the regional.

by SW WA Coug on May 28, 2009 11:45 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

If we can win the first game with Way on the hill

I really, REALLY like our chances against Oklahoma.

CougCenter

by Jeff Nusser on May 28, 2009 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Way could have a great game and not throw too many pitches....

We could use him at the back end of the tournament. That would be the perfect scenario for us, IMO.

by SW WA Coug on May 28, 2009 5:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The perfect scenario would have us not needing him on the back end

Because Arnold and Stilley were awesome, too. :-)

CougCenter

by Jeff Nusser on May 28, 2009 7:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's not likely to happen but....

I’m in total agreement with you. There’s not much chance to be able to use your #2 or #3 starters, just not enough time for any rest.

The time is drawing near. Go Cougs!!!

by SW WA Coug on May 28, 2009 9:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Way has elevated his game to another level

He was making hitters look foolish. Too bad I missed the UW start would have loved to see that.
I like the combo of Way and Arnold. How huge is it to win the first 2 contests at regionals? Nuss you got any stats on that. For example, if you win the first game in regional what is the % of time you get through to the next rd? Win the first 2? etc.

by ptowncoug3012 on May 28, 2009 12:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs