The case for starting Jeff Tuel
I had planned to write this earlier today as a persuasive piece, but given that the decision has now been made, the focus shifts from persuasion to validation.
A few weeks back, I compared the performances of Kevin Lopina and Marshall Lobbestael in the opener against Stanford. It was designed to compare perception with reality, hoping to bring clarity to the situation.Obviously, we're all pretty excited about what Jeff Tuel did while in the game, but as somebody rightly pointed out in the game thread, I'm pretty sure we've never been so excited about a guy who was 1-for-4 passing over the course of his first five drives.
Was the team really that much better when he was in the game?
The answer is ... yes, but maybe not quite as much as you might think.
Whenever we compare two guys, we want to keep it as apples to apples as possible. We'll return to those two long drives to end the game in a moment, but I want to leave those out of the statistical comparison for the time being, given that it came against a number of second stringers seemingly playing a lot of soft zone. That's not to discount what Tuel was able to do -- after all, USC's second stringers went on to score approximately 458 points on us in the second half last year, and with the way this offense has struggled, I wouldn't care if he was throwing against air -- that's just to say that the statistics get pretty significantly skewed when you figure in those last two drives.
Conveniently enough, that leaves us with five dries apiece. As you look at that play call splits, keep in mind that I'm just looking at the official play by play and using my memory to try and remember what happened on each play.
| Lobbestael | Tuel | ||
| Series | 5 | 5 | |
| Plays | Run | 7 | 20 |
| Pass | 13 | 15 | |
| Total | 20 | 35 | |
| Team Yards Gained | -3 | 86 | |
| Team YPPlay | -0.2 | 2.5 | |
| Passing | 2-of-9, 14 yds | 1-of-4, 5 yds | |
| YPComp | 7.00 | 5.00 | |
| YPAtt | 1.56 | 1.25 | |
Without a doubt, the offense was better with Tuel. Then again, it really had nowhere to go but up after averaging negative yards per play with Lobbestael at the helm. Ouchy. But let's not confuse what Tuel did those first three drives with the vintage Cougar offenses of the past decade. The success was relative, and should temper your enthusiasm just a little bit.
However, there's one extremely important distinction between Tuel's performance and Lobbestael's. Check it out how each performed on passing plays:
| Lobbestael | Tuel | |
| Passes Called | 13 | 15 |
| Completions | 2 | 1 |
| Incompetions | 7 | 3 |
| Sacks | 4 | 5 |
| Rushes | 0 | 7 |
| Passing Yards | 14 | 5 |
| Sack Yards | -28 | -19 |
| Rushing Yards | 0 | 42 |
| Total Yards | -14 | 23 |
Despite having more passes called and only being able to get half the number of balls out of his hands -- for half as many completions -- Tuel was able to generate positive yards overall, mostly thanks to his legs. He was able to tuck the ball and avoid taking a sack a number of times, and also was able to limit the damage on most of the sacks he did take.
In fact, of the seven times he scrambled after dropping back to pass on those five drives, five times he produced a result that tangibly benefited the team. Twice, he rushed for 10 or more yards on 2nd-and-long to set up a 3rd-and-short (each of which Logwone Mitz converted); twice, he scrambled for a first down; and once, he avoided a deep sack. This doesn't even take into account the fumble he picked up on 2nd-and-9 on the third drive and ran forward for eight yards, since I think that was supposed to be a running play.
When Paul Wulff originally announced his intention to take the redshirt off Tuel, I was as vocally against it as anyone. It seemed like a waste in a season heading nowhere fast. But I think after Saturday, the implication from the stats is undeniable: For this team -- one that obviously is heading somewhere after a strong performance against USC -- Jeff Tuel is clearly the best option.
There was a considerable amount of consternation about him playing behind a banged up line, but Tuel showed that he's actually the best quarterback to play behind such a line. He's not only mobile; he possesses an uncanny ability to avoid taking a direct hit. And while the arm didn't quite live up to the hype in terms of strength (at least to my eyes, which is obviously subjective), the release was quick and he was accurate.
While the running is nice, that last attribute is truly what distinguishes Tuel from Lobbestael, and why it's clear he should be starting. I think we all kept hoping that Lobbestael would make good on the promise he's shown over the past calendar year, but, as we've done with Lopina, we might just have to make peace with the realization that he is what he is: A statue in the pocket who's incredibly vulnerable to the blitz thanks to slow decision making and inconsistent accuracy. You can only blame the knee for so long, especially when he was only completing ~50 percent of his passes last year before getting hurt.
Tuel, on the other hand, showed he can fit the ball into tight spaces (see his first completion to Tony Thompson) and fire darts into soft spots in a zone. That's why those last two drives make me so excited for Tuel's potential this year: He wasn't just completing passes, he was hitting guys on the numbers or on the hands in stride, prevent zone or not. He was putting the ball in places where guys could do something with it, completing 13-of-18 for 125 yards. I can't say this with great certainty, but I'm fairly confident that no WSU quarterback has had a stretch like that all year.
I'm man enough to admit when I'm wrong. Taking the redshirt off of Tuel was the right decision, and it's time to give him the keys to the offense full time. Here's to hoping that Saturday's start is the first step in that process.
0 recs |
31 comments
|
Comments
I'll admit it as well
I hope I continue to be flat out wrong! We really need Tuel to keep it up.
That's the fastest comment after publishing ever.
by Jeff Nusser on Sep 28, 2009 11:37 PM PDT up reply actions
I must have hit the site at just the right time
I was surprised there were no comments yet. Guess I should look at the time.
I like being #1…ha!
And without breaking my promise not to overuse the Tuel euphemisms
There are a few ways you could’ve gone with it that would be less “kid friendly”
You'd have to be a tool...
to not love Tuel :)
I’m hoping we can see more deeper passes to show off his arm and open things up a bit for the running game. I’m really excited to watch our team grow. Yay optimism!
You didn't even mention what I thin is the most importnat statistic from Saturday,
TIME OF POSETION. Lobbestae couldn’t do anything but go 3 and out. Tuel on the other hand kept the USC offense off the field for huge chunks of time giving our defense much needed rest and I think making Barkley cold and out of sink. I’d take Tuel for no other reason than his ability to keep Masoli on the sideline.
Well he was comparing the quarterbacks on passing plays.
Time of possession has other factors.
by Craig Powers on Sep 29, 2009 7:16 AM PDT up reply actions
I guess I figured it was implied in the number of plays overall
And the fact that he was able to help keep the chains moving with his scrambling.
hope and change
this is “hope and change” we can believe in - let’s hope our lack of depth on the o -line does not get him "killed "
You know, we joke about that, and put "killed" in quotations
But Gary Rogers wasn’t too far away from being paralyzed last year. Scary things can happen when huge d-linemen get free shots at the QB’s blind side.
But like Nuss mentioned, Tuel seems to feel where the pass rush is coming from and is able to avoid taking big hits, and that hopefully will keep him healthy.
by johnnycougar on Sep 29, 2009 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions
It's true
And I think his escapability (made up football word) is so much better than the other guys that he’s far more likely not to get destroyed back there. After all, he won’t face a bigger or faster defense than the one he saw on Saturday …
by Jeff Nusser on Sep 29, 2009 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions
Also notice how he got down while playing USC
He seems to have a good sense of self preservation. He would hit the deck and live to fight another day. That alone makes me more confident in him and his decision making
by Brian Floyd on Sep 29, 2009 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions
That dive just short of the first down line was hilarious
Jason Gesser would have gotten himself knocked into next month.
by Jeff Nusser on Sep 29, 2009 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions
I laughed at first
And then also realized that this strategy would ensure he’d live to fight another day :) We need that kid healthy!
by johnnycougar on Sep 29, 2009 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions
The biggest thing for me in watching him, is that he clearly has the mental
clock in his head that every good QB needs to have. He was poised and under control although you could tell he didn’t know many of the sideline playcalls.
Excited to have a truly athletic QB in the backfield.
Couple of thoughts
First, there was a third down play, not sure what drive it was, where we were pinned close to our endzone and Tuel hit Simone in the slot for a first down. It looked like he threw the ball right off Simone’s outside hip, Simone adjusted to the ball and made the first down. As I watched that play live I was sure it was going to be a pick 6. During every replay all I could think is wow, we’re lucky the LB didn’t see the ball coming. Now, was that a great toss or a gamble that payed off and may get him in trouple in the future?
Another big positive I saw was him simply throwing the ball away. So many young QB’s try to make something out of nothing. He seems to have a pretty good head on his shoulders.
QB ratings for the Stats junkies
I pulled the QB ratings from ESPN and added where they would rank with qualified QB’s in ()’s
Lopina 111.7 (93)
Tuel 104.2 (103)
Red Lobster*** 84.3 (113)
IIRC after the opener Lopina was ~140. None of our QB’s have good ratings, but 84 is beyond terrible. I believe our record breaking QB from a few years ago averaged around 135. I have the numbers on another computer and I’m too lazy to dig them up.
What’s my point? I don’t have one other than, with these numbers you can see why we are pulling a red shirt.
- shout out to Petros
did you know
adding 3 asterisk before a line turns into a bullet? Who knew?
by woolybugger on Sep 29, 2009 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions
Don't ever shout out to Petros ever again
by Jeff Nusser on Sep 29, 2009 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Does anyone remember
when he had that short lived mustache? Holy rapist Batman. That thing was incredible.
by playerkyle14 on Sep 29, 2009 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions
The shout out was sarcasm
the quote was “And that is why they call him red lobster”
Great point Petros other than the fact that no one calls him “Red Lobster”
I’ll try to note my sarcasm in the future, it can be found in all my posts.
by woolybugger on Sep 29, 2009 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions
I work at CougarCopies, and every monday we print out scouting reports for the offense
Yesterday’s report for Oregon featured these words on encouragement on the front page:
Keep Grindin’ — We Are Getting There.

by 















