PAC-10 WEEKEND WRAP: Time for a new No. 1 ...
by Jeff Nusser on Jan 25, 2010 2:46 PM PST
in The Pac-10
35 comments
After declaring last week that thing were beginning to shape up in the conference race essentially as we expected, things were more or less going according to plan this weekend until Arizona State, who had sat on top of our weekly power rankings for the past two weeks, decided to crap the bed against the hated Wildcats -- at home, no less.
Here is how things now look in the standings:
Only one big surprises for me last weekend: Arizona State getting destroyed in the second half against Arizona at home, where the Sun Devils had only lost one other game this year -- to a pretty darn good Baylor team. However, that loss by the Devils exposed something that Seth and I have talked about on 18 And Life -- mainly that the Sun Devils are susceptible to teams with superior athletes, especially if they're not hitting their perimeter shots. (Just like what happened with the Bears.)
I said in these rankings last week that Arizona should be a scary team for the rest of the conference, and I stand by that statement. They had 20 assists on their 23 made field goals, with 28 free throws to boot. Their interior guys are starting to play with a lot of confidence.
Not much else surprised me. Washington has already shown it can't beat anyone on the road, Stanford has already shown it plays well at Maples, the Cougs have already shown their inconsitency, and the Bruins have already shown they can beat anyone in this conference. Big fat yawn.
On to the rankings! Just a reminder that these are power rankings, meaning that I would expect any team ranked above another to beat that team right now on a neutral floor. Also, abbreviated comments this week, as I've got a ton of things on my plate. It's the end of the semester, you know.
1. California
Rank last week: 2
Record last week: 2-0
Overall Record: 13-6
Don't be too concerned with the close margin against the Beavers at home on Saturday -- OSU figured out a way to hand Cal two of its seven conference losses last year.
2. Arizona State
Rank last week: 1
Record last week: 0-1
Overall Record: 14-6
The temptation would be to drop the Sun Devils significantly, but I try not to read too much into one game. But, if there is one soft spot in that zone, it's the middle -- Boateng is no Pendergraph. This bears watching, although I question whether many other teams have the personnel in the frontcourt to really take advantage.
3. Arizona
Rank last week: 4
Record last week: 1-0
Overall Record: 10-9
Derrick Williams had another monster game -- 20 points, six rebounds. That nervous tapping sound you hear is coming from Johnny Dawkins' office.
4. Washington State
Rank last week: 6
Record last week: 1-1
Overall Record: 14-6
Picking a team for No. 4 was hard, but while the Cougs laid an egg at UCLA, they did figure out a way to beat USC on the road. At some point this season, a sweep would really do wonders for them in the standings.
5. USC
Rank last week: 5
Record last week: 1-1
Overall Record: 12-7
The home loss to WSU wasn't good, but the Trojans showed what they're capable of against UW. Stopping the Huskies' offense isn't much of an accomplishment these days, but domination is.
6. UCLA
Rank last week: 7
Record last week: 2-0
Overall Record: 9-10
Lookie who just put together a home sweep! All those "sky is falling" UCLA fans can relax, at least for a short time. Ben Howland is still a good coach -- good enough to recognize (perhaps belatedly) that a 2-3 zone is best suited for his personnel, and then deploy it.
7. Washington
Rank last week: 3
Record last week: 0-2
Overall Record: 12-7
That's more like it! Wonder where all those people who declared the Huskies back are now? People are making a big deal out of that last-second loss to UCLA and throwing a lot of love toward the former walk-on who hit the game-winner, but the Huskies made three critical errors on that play: 1) Allowing UCLA to inbound the ball unimpeded; 2) Allowing the UCLA player to catch the ball at midcourt; and 3) Venoy Overton left his feet on the pump fake, giving the guy a clear look at the basket. Just a complete and totally inexcusable breakdown by UW.
8. Stanford
Rank last week: 9
Record last week: 2-0
Record: 10-9
Sorry guys. Can't give you a whole heck of a lot of credit for sweeping the Oregon schools at home. But on the bright side ... Landry Fields!
9. Oregon State
Rank last week: 8
Record last week: 0-2
Overall Record: 8-10
Putting a mild scare into the Bears just isn't good enough, especially on the heels of that beatdown in Palo Alto. Really, guys -- .59 points per possession? Against the worst defensive team in the conference? You're lucky I don't drop you down to No. 10!
10. Oregon
Rank last week: 10
Record last week: 0-2
Overall Record: 10-9
"Hi Mark? Mike Bellotti. What would it take to get you to leave Spokane?"
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Oh no, not the Few-to-Oregon stuff again
That would be a huge mistake for Few, and probably for Oregon too. I don’t see Few transferring his success at GU to a Pac-10 program. Meanwhile I don’t think the Zags would skip a beat with Giacoletti (or a re-acquirement of Bill Grier) at the helm.
Here’s a good analogy. Few going to Oregon would be the basketball equivalent of Dan Hawkins’ departure to Colorado.
Meanwhile, Ernie Kent should be coaching somewhere in the Midwest. After all, that’s where he gets all his best players from…
by Grady. on Jan 25, 2010 3:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn't Leon Rice be the replacement and not Giacoletti?
He is the associate head coach. Also I ask because he is a good friend of the family and I’ve been told if Few were to leave that he would get the job. Not that I think Few will leave anyway..
by MattPD on Jan 25, 2010 10:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The thinking was that Giacoletti was the successor
When they brought him it, I think it was widely speculated that he would take the program. Considering he went from head coaching gigs to GU, it seems to pass the smell test.
by cougfan on Jan 25, 2010 11:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He went 25-34 in his last two seasons at Utah.
He resigned after that. I don’t think that necessarily makes him the coach in waiting, he was essentially fired after 3 seasons at Utah. He came to Gonzaga over a “mid major” offer because he was drawn to the Spokane area and has a strong friendship with Mark Few. He said he plans to become a head coach again sometime in the future according to the article I read. I’m not sure that he is ahead of Rice, but I haven’t found anything other than that on the subject.
To me it just sounds like a guy trying to get back on track and get ready for another coaching opportunity. I’m sure if the Gonzaga job opened up this year, he would be considered. But he didn’t do anything that great with Utah and the success he did have as a first year coach was mostly due to Andrew Bogut (No.1 pick in the NBA draft).
by MattPD on Jan 25, 2010 11:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Giacoletti might have missed his window
I know he interviewed at WSU but he was never really a candidate. Majerus left Utah in good shape and for whatever reason things just went downhill. He’s a good assistant but I would think they would go after Grier and Rice before Giacoletti.
by BornCoug on Jan 25, 2010 11:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
itll be interesting to see
If Ken Bone’s name comes up for the hypothetical Gonzaga job.
by BigWood on Jan 26, 2010 12:00 AM PST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I thought Rice was the coach in waiting as well
Could be wrong though. Grier was definitely next up until he went to USD.
Few hasn’t done a better job than Monson when it comes down to it. He has increased the base of talent but they typically flameout in the Tournament. Oregon wants Few so much that maybe they don’t fire Kent unless they know Few will come in. At some point I wonder if Few decides to leave but I don’t think anyone can see him leaving any time soon.
by BornCoug on Jan 25, 2010 11:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Small Sample Size
You can’t compare Monson in 2 years to Few in a decade. Few had a decade of dominance in the WCC. He turned them in to a national name.
by cougfan on Jan 25, 2010 11:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Monson set the stage
Monson was around for a lot longer than the 2 years he was the head coach as was Mark Few. The stage was set for GU to dominate the WCC under Monson.
Few may have turned GU into a national name but they are also now know as the program that doesn’t meet expectations. Under Monson they exceeded expectations.
Fitz obviously deserves a lot of the credit as well.
by BornCoug on Jan 25, 2010 11:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yet you can't prove that Monson would've sustained success either
He hasn’t done jack since he left.
Nobody expects GU to win the national title. I wouldn’t consider what he does as a failure to meet expectations at all. You can’t argue that a running league title streak since 2001 isn’t impressive
by cougfan on Jan 26, 2010 12:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Monson is a good coach
Minnesota was a total mess and he could and probably should have left for the UW job.
He went from 6-25 his first year at LBSU to 15-14 his second year. He’s having a tough 3rd year but has cleared house. I obviously can’t prove he would have sustained the success but if you think he isn’t a good coach that helped to set the stage at GU then that pretty much says it all.
At the end of the day what has Few done with all that GU talent?
by BornCoug on Jan 26, 2010 12:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
A run of 10 straight NCAA appearances at a WCC school
Winning the league regular season title for 10 seasons, as well.
You’re minimizing what Few has done by saying that he and Monson are equals in terms of GU. They both set the stage for themselves. Both were assistants at GU for 10 years before they became the coach. Few was an assistant for the 2 years Monson was coach. So no, I don’t think 2 years of Monson as head coach created the GU powerhouse. I think Few created a sustained success at GU. If it was 2 or 3 good years, then you could say Monson’s players did it, but with few sustaining 10 years of success that’s more than Monson.
by cougfan on Jan 26, 2010 1:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Context
Take a look back at my first post. I never said what Monson did at GU was equal to Few. I said “Few hasn’t done a better job than Monson when it comes down to it.” I went on to say that while Few has increased the talent at GU they now typically “flameout” in the NCAA Tournament. By better job I was only pointing to overall success in the Tournament.
I obviously struck a chord and that’s fine although I’m not sure why. All I basically have said is Monson is a good coach. I think Few is a good recruiter, has a very good mind for the game, but has difficulty making the adjustments necessary to regulary beat the best programs. Doesn’t mean that I think he is a bad coach. I just don’t think for all the gains the programs has made over the years that it has resulted in as much success in the tournament.
by BornCoug on Jan 26, 2010 10:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No, it doesn't bother me
I don’t think Monson is a bad coach, I just think what Few has done at GU is greater than Monson. I agree that credit goes to Fitz, as well. A 2nd round and Elite Eight is damn good for Monson, but I would’ve like to see if he could sustain it at GU.
Remember, GU is still on a different tier than the major big conference programs. Even with talent, think about what has come through there (Morrison, Turiaf, Daye). Turiaf is probably the one with the most NBA success. When he gets to the tournament, he’s going up against powerhouses with more talent. Saying they have talent is only relative to the WCC, in my eyes. Matching them up with a big name conference team in terms of talent is different.
by cougfan on Jan 26, 2010 10:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The model was tweaked
Don’t get me wrong. Few has done a great job but he tweaked the model. They made a choice to build their program around players like Heytvelt, Daye, and even Morrison instead of players like Calvary, Santangelo (Fitz recruit), and Frahm. You haven’t seen many Pendergraft type players the last 5 years and in the end it has hurt them IMHO.
The model was built around smart, tough, and unselfish player in a system with a solid defensive foundation. It changed to a free flowing offense with players who lack toughness and at one point clearly ignored defense. Again, these are just my opinions.
Either they are a national program and you compare them to other like national programs or they are a very successful mid-major program. I don’t think you can have it both ways. As great a job as Few has done the success GU has is partially due to playing in an inferior conference. Their talent is so much better that they basically walk through the conference. Not so easy in a BCS conference.
I don’t know, I give them great credit but the stage was set for Few’s success. Don’t even get me started on how WSU and the UW open the door in the first place.
by BornCoug on Jan 26, 2010 11:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Monson capatilized on some good players
He had a deep run into the NCAA’s with a mid major. That happens every year, and often with a talented team we see the same school make two runs in a row. George Mason (final 4 in 06) and Davidson (elite 8 in 08) are examples of mid majors making deep runs.
The difference with these schools and with what Few has done at Gonzaga since taking over? The following years after the deep runs, neither George Mason nor Davidson made the NCAA’s. So to answer your hypothetical of what has Few done with all that talent? He has created one of the longest running streaks in the NCAA’s currently. He has won a mind boggling number of conference titles. And he has made a small private school in Spokane a household name for college basketball fans.
Few might not be the greatest coach ever, but we need to give credit where credit is due. Dan Monson, in two years, won 75% of his games at Gonzaga. Few, in 10 years, has won 80% of his games. Who knows what Monson could have done if he had stayed, but what he has done since leaving is not nearly as impressive as Few’s years at GU.
by 02Coug on Jan 26, 2010 8:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Go back further to FItz
Fitzgerald set the entire program up and had them both as his assistants.
by CougM.E.93 on Jan 26, 2010 5:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It does go back to Fitz
I included Fitz in my first post on the subject, fwiw. Fitz built the model, Monson stuck to the model, Few changed the model with great regular season result that haven’t translated to as much Tournament success.
by BornCoug on Jan 26, 2010 10:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Glad to know all my hard work on the rankings was good enough to simply spark a conversation about Gonzaga
Guess I should have just foregone the post and written a headline of “MARK FEW IS GOING TO OREGON” and let everyone have at it …
by Jeff Nusser on Jan 26, 2010 9:43 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
It was the last thing you said.
CougCenter WSU's second main blog
by Dancing Football on Jan 26, 2010 10:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I did think about that
I suppose it’s good that we at least know Grady made it to the end.
by Jeff Nusser on Jan 26, 2010 10:44 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I sometimes wonder if he reads his own site.
CougCenter WSU's second main blog
by Dancing Football on Jan 26, 2010 11:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Back on topic
How many bids does the conference get? If the regular season winner and tourney winner are different, do we get two? If they’re the same do we get one?
And finally, what record will it take to win the regular season title?
by cougfan on Jan 26, 2010 10:58 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
It looks like Cal is the only teams with decent shots for at-larges now.
UW, WSU, ASU, and UA would have to go on big runs to secure bids. I fear the one bid scenario is entirely plausible, but it’s clear than any team can beat the top teams in this conference. That gives us hope that the non-regular season champion will secure the auto-bid.
The strength of schedule numbers are going to hurt everyone. Not something that is typical for the Pac 10.
As for the record it takes to win the regular season, I’d go with 12 and Cal being the team to get there.
CougCenter WSU's second main blog
by Dancing Football on Jan 26, 2010 11:15 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Cal is the only team*
CougCenter WSU's second main blog
by Dancing Football on Jan 26, 2010 11:15 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
SBN’s bracketology guy has the Bears a 10 seed, and Lunardi has them as a 9. So that would seem to suggest they’re safe if they don’t fall off the cliff and/or aren’t the team to win the conference tourney.
by Jeff Nusser on Jan 26, 2010 4:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
By the way
Lunardi has ASU in right now.
by Jeff Nusser on Jan 26, 2010 4:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I can agree with that
If two teams are going to get in, I’d see it being ASU and Cal. If one of these wins the regular season and a surprise winner takes the tourney, I’d say the other is out of luck, though
by cougfan on Jan 26, 2010 4:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hard to imagine
It’s hard for me to imagine only 2 teams getting in. I think at the end of the day even if only 2 deserve it that at least 3 will get in.
by BornCoug on Jan 26, 2010 5:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Last year's SEC
Bad conference, 3 bids. The only reason they got 3 is because MSU ran the table in the tournament. The 2010 pac-10 is the 2009 SEC, maybe worse.
by cougfan on Jan 26, 2010 5:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Pac 10 tournament
That’s going to mean something and should make for some good games. I bet Howland isn’t aginst the Tournament this year.
This conference is nuts this year.
by BornCoug on Jan 26, 2010 8:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Everyone will be playing for their lives
Nobody will feel safe not even the season champ maybe. Should be fun to watch
by cougfan on Jan 26, 2010 8:46 PM PST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I think it's going to be great
Because for the first time since this thing was reinstituted, you can make a legit argument that ANYONE can win it.
by Jeff Nusser on Jan 26, 2010 9:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
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