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The Tailgater's Guide to Cougar Football: Week Nine

Sekope Kaufusi's hair pops out of his helmet in an attempt to scare little kids this Halloween.

The Tailgater's Guide to Cougar Football is a weekly series, published every Thursday (except when it's on Friday), designed to prepare you for the upcoming week's matchup - both on and off the field.

The Game

Washington St. Cougars (1-7, 0-5 Pac-10) at Arizona St. Sun Devils (3-4, 1-3 Pac-10)

The Location

Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe, AZ. 4 p.m. Pacific

Media

Television - None [ed. note: DIE IN A FIRE CURRENT TV CONTRACT]
Radio - Cougar Sports ISP Radio Network

Last Meeting

Arizona State 27, WSU 14 (2009)

The Line

Arizona State -21

Why It Matters

So here we are. This is the four game stretch we've been waiting for all season: ASU, Cal, Oregon State and Washington. All four teams are talented but each have their own unique - and occasionally fatal - flaws. We've reached the point in the year where being competitive is all fine and dandy, but a win is what the Cougars are really chasing.

This game is particularly intriguing. The Fightin' Ericksons have only won one conference game all season and have a turnover-prone quarterback at the helm. As bad as the WSU defense has been statistically (and good God they have been awful), they have been able to take advantage of turnovers in their last two wins (Montana State earlier this year and SMU last fall).

Ultimately, it's a game of execution and the team that makes the least amount of mistakes (read: turnovers) should come out on top. For WSU, I have a feeling it will take turnovers and an inspired performance by the offense to spoil the Sun Devils' Homecoming.

Star-divide

Key Matchup - The WSU Defensive Line versus the ASU Offensive Line

The trenches are where the Cougar defense could find a way to be successful in this game. Craig detailed earlier this week that ASU has allowed 19 sacks so far on the season. A porous line could allow Brandon Rankin and company to break through and put pressure on the recently concussed Steven Threet. And pressure could result in sacks, bad passes and turnovers. Breaking through the line can also help WSU stuff the run. This is going back to square one: we thought WSU's defense would be centered on the strength of the defense line at the start of the year. So far, the unit has been more of a weakness, and this is their first real opportunity at redemption.

Key Players

Kevin Kooyman, WSU - It's time for the fifth-year senior to have a breakout game in 2010, and this one feels right. As I said earlier, I think the D-line can really jump-start the entire team in this game.

Deantre Lewis, ASU - So, let's say WSU puts the clamps on Threet and forces a couple interceptions. Then what? If I'm Dennis Erickson, I do the thing every opponent in the Paul Wulff era has done against the Cougs (except the 2008 Huskies, of course, which is hilarious). That thing is run the ball down our throats. Lewis is quick, versatile and exactly the kind of back that has given WSU fits in the past. Can we finally shut a running game down?

Why WSU Might Win - I'd say the Cougs have to go at least +2 in turnover margin AND have a signature performance by Jeff Tuel and the receivers. Remember, last year the Cougs forced six ASU turnovers and still lost at home. By 13.

Why ASU Might Win - The talent is on their side, and if Vontaze Burfict breaks through and crushes Jeff Tuel a few times, this could be the laugher that Vegas is predicting. 

Recommended Local Activity and Food - Four Peaks Brewery. I'll be stopping here for sure if I can ever make the road trip to Tempe. Good food, but even better beer. They offer eight regular beers in addition to whatever the seasonal brew of the moment is.

Gametime Snack of the Week - Pirate's Booty - It's best to find a big bag of this at Costco. Be ye warned: this is not very filling food. Something I learned on a camping trip this last summer when I tried to eat a ton of it as breakfast.

Gametime Beer of the Week - Redhook ESB - I wanted to give some love to Northwest beer, and Redhook just seemed like a perfect fit for this week's beer selection. I'm a sucker for amber ales too, which is why I'm going with the ESB.

Prediction - Until an hour ago, I was going to guarantee an ASU win. The Cougs are better, yes, but they're going up against a Sun Devil team with their backs against the wall in terms of their postseason chances. And it's homecoming in Tempe. 

Then I learned that the game wouldn't be on TV. Those of you who have followed Cougar sports closely over the last few years know that when WSU is in the dark, good things happen.

The revolution will not be televised. Actually, that's not entirely true: the revolution will be televised on FCS-Pacific, but only on tape delay after they finish a replay of the San Diego State-UTEP Ultimate Frisbee match from last Wednesday.

WSU 30, Arizona State 27 (OT)

Remember, the only guarantee is that Reid Forrest is a better punter than your punter.

Enjoy the game, and as always, Go Cougs.

Comment 28 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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I assume the tape delay was a joke,

As everyone knows WSU tape delays are shown on FCS-Atlantic.

by ZeusGalore on Oct 29, 2010 9:29 AM PDT reply actions  

Nice Breakdown, but ...

… I like Reid Forrest, and he certainly has had a good share of work to do this year, but he’s not going to be the best punter in tomorrow’s game, let alone in all college football. I say this because he trails ASU’s Trevor Hankins in average distance. He also trails the punters of UCLA and Cal in this category. You could argue that he has better control, hang time and all that — no problem. He just doesn’t have the distance of the other three. So judge “better punter” as you will.

I realize that this is blasphemy here. Therefore, I’ve posted my link below:

by Jeff in MD on Oct 29, 2010 9:42 AM PDT reply actions  

These statistics are wonky

The “net” is the same as the “average” which means someone at ESPN has the wrong numbers. I’m more interested in net than average, because that does indeed factor in hang time and such in the form of how many yards the other team returns the punt.

by johnnycougar on Oct 29, 2010 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

That's fair

I noticed that as well. So I guess every punt in college football this year has been a fair catch. Unfortunately, net also includes poor coverage and above average returns. It pulls the rest of the punt unit into the stat.

by Jeff in MD on Oct 29, 2010 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

Well, that's true too

Though a “good” punt is presumably the furthest punt possible where the returner calls for a fair catch, since you can’t assume a returner will lose yards after catching the ball. Thus, the “best” punter in college football should still have the best net, because then even if the punter’s coverage team is awful he will still make their coverage unnecessary. Make sense? That’s just how I see it. Clearly every punter makes a few mistakes a year and allows returners the chance to exploit poor punt coverage, so a punter with an excellent supporting cast is less likely to be punished in the net category. But I think overall the punter has enough control over the net yardage to use it as a comparison statistic.

If we compare the NCAA’s net and average punting, we see Forrest is clearly superior. Caveat – the net statistic is for team, indicating perhaps what you said about punt returns being everyone’s responsibility. Curiously, many team averages don’t align with individual punter averages, meaning either they have different people keeping track of stats (and they don’t match up) or a lot of teams have used multiple punters.

by johnnycougar on Oct 29, 2010 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I buy that

I’m on board with your analysis. I guess it’s pretty difficult to separate the punter from the punt coverage. I imagine that as long as the avg. punt distance is in alignment with the net punt distance … one isn’t skewed greatly relative to similar punters’ stats … you could make your determination that way. If I saw a punter with a great avg. and poor net, I’d guess he’s outkicking his coverage. Net similar to avg. probably indicates lots of fair catches and / or great coverage.

As for the net punting chart from the NCAA … isn’t WSU 42nd on that list? I saw Cal and Oregon at the top for net. Am I reading that wrong? And the ducks have a 2 yard difference between their net and avg. Anyway, Forrest is an excellent punter. I hope you guys don’t need his services much tomorrow.

by Jeff in MD on Oct 29, 2010 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

I hope so as well

I don’t totally understand the ncaa team statistics on that, especially since many of the top teams don’t have top individual punters.

by johnnycougar on Oct 30, 2010 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

Sir,

You can just go straight to hell.

by TrueCoug on Oct 29, 2010 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

I knew this wouldn't go over well

I say we have a Reid Forrest – Kiel Rasp punt-off at halftime of the Apple Cup.

by Jeff in MD on Oct 29, 2010 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

Wait, wait ... this is just comic gold ...

Or maybe the RF-KR punt off will just happen during the game. Get it? During the game. I navigated over to another web page before I thought of that one.

by Jeff in MD on Oct 29, 2010 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions  

RE: Northwest beer.

The Redhook I get here makes no mention of it’s brewery in Washington and is brewed in New Hampshire. I was pretty disappointed to discover that.

CougCenter In Reid We Trust
Twitter!

by Craig Powers on Oct 29, 2010 10:23 AM PDT via mobile reply actions  

On my tour of Redhook

They mentioned that they bought a brewery in New Hampshire and merged so that they could get easier distribution on the East. So never fear, it’s the same recipe but fresher…or something.

by 02Coug on Oct 29, 2010 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

That's encouraging

I live in Maryland, and come across Redhook on occasion. It’s nice to see a good beer instead of the usual mass distributed suspects. If any of you beer hounds ever get the chance, get yourselves a bottle of Brewer’s Art Resurrection amber (ale?) or Ozzy pale ale. Definitely worth the effort. I wish I could drink one and watch WSU – ASU … still no TV?

by Jeff in MD on Oct 30, 2010 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

No TV

And since you’re on the East Coast…Dogfish Head!

by Brian Floyd on Oct 30, 2010 11:25 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions   2 recs

"Television - None [ed. note: DIE IN A FIRE CURRENT TV CONTRACT]"

Damn you really bad Pac-10 TV contract!

"If anyone epitomized Cougar grit and courage, Jason Gesser did that." - Bob Robertson

by Cougz4Life509 on Oct 29, 2010 10:44 AM PDT reply actions  

Reid only needs like 157 yards or something like that...

to be the schools all-time punting leader. Good thing or bad thing? I’m going with mostly bad.

-Brett G.
-Daily Evergreen Staff Sports Writer

by Brett the 49er on Oct 29, 2010 11:00 AM PDT reply actions  

Wait. . .

How in the world is ASU a 21 point favorite? That is a pretty high spread for an ASU team that has hasn’t broken 40 points on a Div. 1 team this year. Should I put money on this game? If we could keep the spread under 21 points against Oregon, Arizona, and Stanford, I think we can do it against ASU. Just say. . .

by JimtheCoug on Oct 29, 2010 12:30 PM PDT reply actions  

Who knows, but I'm happy for it

I’m going to Vegas for the weekend and will definitely be putting some down on WSU beating the spread. If it was televised I might put some on the outcome, but I think I’d be pulling my hair not being kept up to date with money on the line.

by P_Cougar on Oct 29, 2010 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

yeah the 21 points spread is a load of crap

ASU is so anemic on offense you never know what is going to happen. Let’s get a win, and silence all the HATERS! GO COUGS!

"If anyone epitomized Cougar grit and courage, Jason Gesser did that." - Bob Robertson

by Cougz4Life509 on Oct 29, 2010 1:23 PM PDT reply actions  

The caption on that photo should've read:

Were it not for NCAA rules banning athletes from appearing in commercials, Troy Polamalu would not be the face of Head and Shoulders shampoo.

The K is special

by J.J. FeKl on Oct 29, 2010 3:13 PM PDT reply actions  

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