A Pessimistic (then not so much...) Outlook on Cougar Basketball
by cfischer01 on Nov 8, 2010 2:44 PM PST
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PrintI am getting pretty excited for Sat. I am looking forward to seeing the basketball team in person for the first time. (I am like a sub-Saharan African country, I only have two seasons: College basketball season and the rest of year where I am forced to watch NBA, FIBA, and Euroleague basketball to get my fix.)
I am excited to see if this team has what it takes to be in contention in the Pac-10. Do they have the depth and personal to compete with the most challenging non-conference schedule that the Cougs have faced in as long as I can remember? There are question marks and holes that need to be filled: Can they get solid play from the 4 and at backup point guard spot? Can Aiden score enough to take some pressure off of Klay and Reggie?) Let’s also get one thing clear right up front, if Casto, Klay, or Moore gets hurt for any significant time, this team will finish in the bottom half of the conference. Depth is an issue, but if the players Bone has brought in can provide some scoring, some defense, and some rebounding, the Cougs are going to have a pretty good year.
It’s the bench's ability to defend and rebound that has me worried. I would say the two biggest questions though are going to be how tough can they play? Defense and rebounding are going to be huge for this team. I am not a statistics guy, but I think that WSU finished last in the PAC 10 in defense last season. This team needs to improve that number, I would say if they are going to finish in the top 3 in conference, then they will need to be in the top 5 on defense. In PAC-10 play I don't think rebounding is going to be as big an issue as will be for the non-conference. This team must take 2 game in Hawaii and win at least one of its games against KSU or Gonzaga in order to give themselves a chance at an at-large bid. Those games are going to be the ones where the D must step and they have keep other teams off the glass.
I have said before that this team has a high ceiling, but I also think they have low basement. Given all the question marks, can they play with enough toughness and consistency to complete with a great schedule in December?
The only possible alternative to not being tough and still winning is to have Klay become an All-American. This is from Jay Bilas' article today @ http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/preview2010/columns/story?columnist=bilas_jay&id=5779974
"Whether Washington State's Klay Thompson is as good as I think he is. I believe Thompson can establish himself as the best player in the Pac-10 this season. He can really shoot it and really score, and is a vastly underrated defender. Thompson impressed me this past summer at the Nike Skills Academy and he needs only to play stronger to be a first-team All-American."
Thompson's rebounding and defense will be almost as important as his scoring, but if he starts putting up crazy numbers then this will be a dangerous team in March.
This FanPost does not necessarily reflect the views of the site's writers or editors, who may not have verified its accuracy. It does, however, reflect the views of this particular fan, which is just as important as the views of our writers or editors.
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All good observations.
To answer a question: Yes, we were the worst defense in the Pac-10 last year. If you haven’t already, familiarize yourself with the stats on kenpom.com. We use them a lot.
CougCenter In Reid We Trust
Twitter!
I am a true believer in the eye test...
I have watched/played/coached enough basketball to know that we were terrible on D last year. It wasn’t just because of the system and style change. The D worries me, I hope I am just more worried because I loved bennit ball.
We will call him Zatara.....sounds fearsome....It means driftwood.
You and I are on the same page on that one.
Just remember that stats and eyeballs work best together. College Basketball Prospectus is an excellent example of that.
the "eyeball test" brought on the "Nik sucks" wave
don’t trust your eyes.
In fairness, the stats said Nik's junior year sucked too.
CougCenter In Reid We Trust
Twitter!
by Craig Powers on Nov 10, 2010 5:20 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Uh, that's putting it mildly
Jr.: 78 ORtg, 29.9 TO rate, 26.9 percent 3s
Sr.: 120.5 ORtg, 18.1 TO rate, 42.6 percent 3s
ALL WHILE USING MORE POSSESSIONS AS A SENIOR. That has to be one of the more amazing one-year turnarounds of a player I’ve ever witnessed. I kept waiting for him to fall off the proverbial cliff, but he never did.
Nik's career is a case of "what could've been."
Who knows how good he could have been had he not blown out his knee.
The K is special
Team still played better when he was on the floor
He led the team in plus/minus his Junior Year.
I rec'd both your comebacks
Because they were indisputable.
CougCenter, SBNation Seattle, @FloydCoug
Night Editor - SBNation.com
Well said
This is a team that can definitely not handle any injuries to our top guys, though that can be said for every team. I think for the cougs it is also crucial to avoid injuries to our bigs not named Casto as well, as I do not think any of the backups are an adequate replacement on their own and will likely need to rotate 3 guys for the backup minutes.
That said, a healthy cougar team is a dangerous one. I hope Moore continues to look to distribute more than shoot. Against LCSC, he had 7 assists and took 3 shots.It is crucial that we have guys moving without the ball. I said this last year, but Klay should be studying Ray Allen like there was a final exam on him. I am not talking about Ray’s shooting, dribbling or passing either, I am talking about how he constantly runs around the floor, looking for an open shot or drive. It’s incredible. If we can get Klay, Aden, Lodwick, Motum and Capers running around, setting screens and creating looks, then Reggie can just drop dimes all day.
Casto needs to put it all together offensively this year. He has developed some nice moves in the post, but we really need him to be effective from 10 feet in. If he can hit the 10 footer, then he can draw his defender out and beat him off the one dribble to the hoop with his quickness. His hands got a lot better during last year, and we need him to consistently catch the no-look from Moore.
Klay just needs to keep doing what he is doing. He got tired and sloppy last year down the stretch, there is no denying it. When he gets double teamed (basically every time he touches the ball) he needs to realize that someone is open. He needs to anticipate the double and find the open man, and when he does that this team will be deadly. It becomes a pick-your-poison situation. Double Klay and leave an open man for Klay to hit, or single cover one of the best offensive players in the nation. The keys to this working are A. Klay needs to find the open man and B. The open man needs to knock down the bucket. Neither of these things happened with consistency last year, but hopefully the other guys are ready to pick it up and Klay is ready to anticipate the situation and burn the other team before they know what hit them,
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