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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

WSUScottie edges out competition to win our Bracket Challenge

Although the outcome of the championship game was in doubt until the final seconds, the outcome of our Bracket Challenge was not -- in fact, WSUScottie had wrapped up the title before the ball even went in the air last night.

Only five people picked Duke to win it all, and perhaps to support PaulThomas' assertion that too much weight is given to the final two rounds, those five people finished 1-5. However, what separated WSUScottie from second place finisher JimTheCoug was four picks in the first round and one pick in the second round. A slim margin, indeed.

Here are the top 10 finishers:

RNKENTRY, OWNERR64R32S16E8FFNCGCHAMPIONTOTALPCT
1 WSUScottie 1, S. Moore 270 200 200 160 160 320 Duke 1310 99.9
2 JimTheCoug, J. Haendiges 230 180 200 160 160 320 Duke 1250 99.7
3 philkid3, R. Griffin 210 160 200 160 160 320 Duke 1210 99.3
4 spencer peaty, S. Peaty 250 200 160 80 160 320 Duke 1170 98.6
5 brlogan, B. Logan 240 180 120 80 160 320 Duke 1100 96.6
6 C Street Coug, M. Akers 240 160 200 160 160 0 Kansas 920 93.1
6 nycoug, T. Penman 240 160 200 160 160 0 Kansas 920 93.1
8 cfischer01 1, C. Fischer 210 160 200 160 160 0 Kansas 890 92.4
9 couginthepink, D. Rogers 260 200 160 80 160 0 Kansas 860 91.3
10 Grady, G. Clapp 240 180 160 80 160 0 Kansas 820 89.4
10 Rowsmasterflex, R. Rowsey 200 140 160 160 160 0 Kansas 820 89.4

What does WSUScottie get for all his prognosticating awesomeness? Before the contest, we advertised this as a bragging-rights-only exercise. Well, for the second consecutive year, the generosity of a reader has come through in the clutch -- WSUScottie is the proud new owner of a commemorative 1998 Rose Bowl football, which was donated by one of you. It's one of those with three white panels for autographs. Pretty cool. Send me an e-mail to cougcenter@gmail.com with your mailing address, and I'll hook you up.

As for the authors? Well, we all comported ourselves pretty well. For the second consecutive year, Grady finished in the top 10 after finishing second last year. (Note to self: consult Grady on next year's bracket.) Craig finished 15th, I finished in a tie for 20th after my abysmal showing last year and Brian finished in a tie for 34th. Not bad.

One other interesting thing: 49 of our 72 brackets (68 percent) finished in the 50th percentile or higher. Further evidence that we just have dang smart fans around here.

We'll take a look at making some tweaks for next year, including probably moving back to Yahoo! where we we can customize our scoring and also use the scenario generator. Thanks to everyone who participated! Full standings after the jump.

Star-divide

RNKENTRY, OWNERR64R32S16E8FFNCGCHAMPIONTOTALPCT
1 WSUScottie 1, S. Moore 270 200 200 160 160 320 Duke 1310 99.9
2 JimTheCoug, J. Haendiges 230 180 200 160 160 320 Duke 1250 99.7
3 philkid3, R. Griffin 210 160 200 160 160 320 Duke 1210 99.3
4 spencer peaty, S. Peaty 250 200 160 80 160 320 Duke 1170 98.6
5 brlogan, B. Logan 240 180 120 80 160 320 Duke 1100 96.6
6 C Street Coug, M. Akers 240 160 200 160 160 0 Kansas 920 93.1
6 nycoug, T. Penman 240 160 200 160 160 0 Kansas 920 93.1
8 cfischer01 1, C. Fischer 210 160 200 160 160 0 Kansas 890 92.4
9 couginthepink, D. Rogers 260 200 160 80 160 0 Kansas 860 91.3
10 Grady, G. Clapp 240 180 160 80 160 0 Kansas 820 89.4
10 Rowsmasterflex, R. Rowsey 200 140 160 160 160 0 Kansas 820 89.4
12 StraightOuttaPullman, M. Hagensen 240 160 160 80 160 0 Kansas 800 88.1
12 hawkncoug, s. hmmm 200 160 200 240 0 0 W Virginia 800 88.1
14 Big Wood, K. Sherwood 240 180 120 80 160 0 Kansas 780 86.7
15 Dancing Football, C. Powers 250 200 160 160 0 0 Kansas 770 85.7
16 GHWSU11 1, G. Hansch 220 140 80 160 160 0 Kansas 760 84.9
16 Eramm, E. Rammelsberg 220 180 120 80 160 0 Kansas 760 84.9
16 DCinSEA, D. Curry 220 220 160 160 0 0 Kansas 760 84.9
19 Roy Weaver Stuckey, c. singh 270 200 200 80 0 0 Kansas 750 84.1
20 Jeff Nusser, J. Nusser 240 180 160 160 0 0 Kansas 740 83.2
20 MattGSeattle, M. Gardner 240 180 160 160 0 0 Kentucky 740 83.2
20 Zombie Hobos, j. carleton 240 220 200 80 0 0 Kansas 740 83.2
23 LeaveItToWeaver, m. larson 230 180 160 160 0 0 Kansas 730 82.3
24 Cougar999, J. Hodge 250 180 200 80 0 0 Kentucky 710 80.1
25 bertel, R. Bartels 180 120 80 160 160 0 Kansas 700 78.9
26 rcm_rx7 1, R. Mc 230 180 200 80 0 0 W Virginia 690 77.5
27 Cougfan45, C. CRIDER 240 160 200 80 0 0 Kansas 680 75.9
27 02cougwife, S. Walker 240 240 120 80 0 0 Kentucky 680 75.9
27 Bucherbp, B. Bucher 280 160 160 80 0 0 Kansas 680 75.9
27 NoeChill, N. Luna 240 120 80 80 160 0 Kansas 680 75.9
31 ClosetCoug, W. Pickett 210 140 160 160 0 0 Syracuse 670 74.1
31 evanr, E. Reyes 190 120 120 80 160 0 Kansas 670 74.1
31 jj_fekl, E. Owers 250 180 160 80 0 0 Kentucky 670 74.1
34 GoCougs , J. Collier 240 180 160 80 0 0 Kansas 660 72.2
34 Bson25, B. Beason 240 220 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 660 72.2
34 cougfan, B. Floyd 240 140 200 80 0 0 Kansas 660 72.2
37 907coug, S. Haggart 210 200 160 80 0 0 Kansas 650 69.9
37 Coug State, R. DeFant 210 200 160 80 0 0 Kansas 650 69.9
39 TrueCoug, B L 240 240 160 0 0 0 Kentucky 640 67.5
40 SoCalCoug, J. Malstrom 250 180 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 630 64.7
41 Brett the 49er, B. Gleason 240 180 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 620 61.8
42 PlayerKyle14, K. Rancourt 230 180 120 80 0 0 Kentucky 610 57.5
42 cockle, A. Cockle 210 160 160 80 0 0 Kansas 610 57.5
42 dflynnwsu, D. Flynn 250 200 160 0 0 0 Kansas 610 57.5
45 wazzustudent2 2, M. Rogstad 220 220 160 0 0 0 Kentucky 600 54.3
45 cougactor 1, S. MacDonald 200 160 160 80 0 0 Kansas 600 54.3
47 hitking69 1, M. Bylsma 250 180 160 0 0 0 Kansas 590 51.1
47 ConnorOSU, C. Pelton 250 140 120 80 0 0 Kentucky 590 51.1
47 02Coug, J. Norris 250 180 80 80 0 0 Kansas 590 51.1
50 Cougars Hunt and Kill, S. Ward 240 140 120 80 0 0 W Virginia 580 47.6
51 cordodor 1, C. Cordodor 230 180 80 80 0 0 Kansas 570 44.2
51 fosterj314, J. Foster 230 140 120 80 0 0 Gonzaga 570 44.2
53 PalousePosse, M. Drevniak 200 160 120 80 0 0 Kansas 560 40.8
54 PrimmTime, E. Primm 210 180 160 0 0 0 Kansas 550 37.4
54 Cougar_Patrick, P. Jones 190 160 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 550 37.4
54 wazzucougar02 3, J. Winkey 190 160 120 80 0 0 Kansas 550 37.4
57 coug2828, S. Heineman 260 160 120 0 0 0 Kansas 540 33.9
57 I Remember Richie Zisk, C. C 220 160 160 0 0 0 Kansas 540 33.9
59 displacedcoug, L. Bibo 240 160 120 0 0 0 Kansas 520 27.1
59 PMan, P. Mullenix 200 160 160 0 0 0 Kansas 520 27.1
59 bibamusmoriendumest 1, W Hargaw 200 160 160 0 0 0 Kentucky 520 27.1
59 geraldr416, g. reynolds 220 100 120 80 0 0 Kansas 520 27.1
63 johnnycougar, J. Yeager 200 180 120 0 0 0 Syracuse 500 21.1
64 ChrisGTE, C. GTE 230 140 120 0 0 0 Kansas 490 18.2
65 cougdave1 1, D. VITZTHUM 200 160 120 0 0 0 Kansas 480 15.8
65 pberish , P. Berish 220 140 120 0 0 0 Kansas 480 15.8
65 KirklandCoug 1, J. Krohn 220 140 120 0 0 0 Syracuse 480 15.8
68 busch the coug, N. Busch 170 140 160 0 0 0 Kansas 470 13.5
69 Wazzy Willy, r. wilson 220 160 80 0 0 0 Syracuse 460 11.4
70 B Money, B. McLean 230 140 80 0 0 0 Kansas 450 9.6
70 num204, J. Rasor 150 140 160 0 0 0 Kentucky 450 9.6

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I think the weight is pretty appropriate.

In the pools I’m in, the winner tends to be the person who picks the right champ, and the differences tend to be minute differents in picking games. That sounds right to me.

by philkid3 on Apr 6, 2010 2:57 PM PDT reply actions  

Also, I was in nine pools that I would consider important to me.

Outside of this pool, only two other people in ALL of those pools combined picked Duke. One was a Duke fan, and another was my girlfriend copying my bracket.

by philkid3 on Apr 6, 2010 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

I nominate myself for the Clueless Award

First off, am I the only person who didn’t realize cougfan was an official author? I guess I just thought he was an exceptionally devoted commenter…

Second, I finished 63rd, logically making me one of the not-smart fans, ominously implicated above by Jeff. I hereby vow to spend more than three minutes on my next bracket, to make amends for my pathetic showing.

by johnnycougar on Apr 6, 2010 3:10 PM PDT reply actions  

Holy Crap!

Honestly, I stopped looking at my bracket after the first and second round. I remembered picking Duke, but I just assumed that my overly conservative picks in the first two rounds had me sunk early on. I never bothered to look at the results because I never get close to winning these things. This silver medal finish just brightened my day!

by JimtheCoug on Apr 6, 2010 4:56 PM PDT reply actions  

Many Thanks

Nuss, thank you for putting this all together! I’ll send you my contact information via email…
And, well done with the " prognosticating awesomeness" description. I couldn’t be prouder…

Finally, to the generous individual who donated the football: Many, many thanks to you, as I will display this proudly in my classroom! GO COUGS!

by WSUScottie on Apr 6, 2010 4:59 PM PDT reply actions  

Hey, at least I was right about something!

(Picks weren’t so right, though. I didn’t enter this one but if I had used the picks from the one I entered at CGB, I’d have finished about halfway down the standings.)

Personally, I like 1/2/3/4/5/6, although perhaps my ideal weight would be one in which every round would be worth 1.5 times the previous round. (1/2/3/4/5/6 gives too much weight to round 2 and too little weight to rounds 5 and 6.) Which is frickin’ hard to turn into whole numbers… I think the smallest point values that would satisfy that condition and still have whole-number point values for every round would be 32/48/72/108/162/243.

Not exactly beer-and-pretzels-approved.

Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."

by PaulThomas on Apr 6, 2010 5:05 PM PDT reply actions  

I'm thinking about 1/2/4/7/12/20

I don’t know if that makes any sense mathematically, but the point increases as you move along are relatively incremental, rather than doubling.

by Jeff Nusser on Apr 6, 2010 5:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

That's a pretty good ratio

It’s similar to what we had except it takes a little less emphasis off the last 2 rounds. I think part of the beauty of march madness is picking some of the first and second round upsets. A setup that has the final four account for 1/3 of the total points seems to take the steam out of that a bit.

by spencer peaty on Apr 6, 2010 10:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't know how those percentile rankings work at all

I got 50% of the elite 8, and 25% of the final four. I did have the champion, but does that sound like a bracket that was better than 98.6% of entries? I don’t think so. Then again, a final four with two 5 seeds isn’t exactly a high percentage pick. But still…

by spencer peaty on Apr 6, 2010 10:40 PM PDT reply actions  

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