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Could the Cougs actually play themselves into hosting a regional?

With the Cougs putting the finishing touches on a sweep by soundly beating USC again this afternoon -- they're slipping, as it was "only" 8-2 this time -- it's fair to get pretty excited about this team and where it's heading.  They certainly seem to be rolling at the right time, now sitting all alone in third place in what is a ridiculously tough Pac-10.

This team that was once on the bubble now would seem to be a mortal lock for the NCAA Tournament with just five games left in the season -- a road game at Gonzaga on Tuesday, a home game against Portland on Wednesday, and a three-game road series at UCLA starting Friday. Even if the Cougs go in the tank and win just one or two of those games, it's awful tough to see them getting left out of the field.

That's how we Cougs think, right? What's the worst case scenario, what if it happens, and will we get screwed if it does?

But then, something funny happened: I actually started to think like Bill Moos wants me to think. Instead of wondering what would happen if things go south, what if this team goes nuts over the last five games and wins them all?

USC isn't a great team, but nobody has done to the Trojans what we did this weekend in outscoring them 46-13. (Only UCLA, which outscored them 30-10, even came close.) Running the table doesn't seem so far fetched anymore.

And what if they do? Is the once unthinkable -- hosting a regional, an honor that with few exceptions goes to the top 16 teams in the field -- possible?

I threw the idea out there via Twitter last night, and someone responded that a commenter over at the Brand X message board said the Cougs don't have the required facilities to host a regional.

Not true.

Craig Lawson, the sports information director at WSU for the baseball team, told me via e-mail last night that one of the reasons they invested in upgrading the facilities at Bailey-Brayton Field recently was for this very situation -- so that we could host a regional if the opportunity presented itself. To the best of his knowledge, WSU is able to do that.

However, Lawson said the bigger question is whether the tournament committee will see WSU as worthy of hosting a regional.

As of last night, he said the Cougs' RPI was No. 32, and apparently the committee relies heavily on that metric to compare teams. With games against Gonzaga and Portland coming up which are likely to hurt their RPI regardless of the outcome -- yay for flawed ranking systems! -- it's unlikely even a road sweep over UCLA would vault the Cougs up into the top 20.

Still, if the Cougs went down to Los Angeles and swept the Bruins, they would have finished the year by winning 14 of their last 15 games and would finish second in the conference ahead of UCLA -- a team ESPN projected this week as being in line to host one of those regionals.

I'm certainly no baseball bracketology expert, but at that point, I have a hard time believing that this team would not receive strong consideration from a committee made of humans for hosting a regional, regardless of some silly mathematical equation that's unduly influenced by the fact that WSU can't get tough nonconference opponents to come to Pullman.

The odds might be stacked against WSU, both in terms of RPI and in terms of sweeping a really, really good UCLA team on the road. But I've got to believe that hosting a regional is not out of the question.

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Should be an epic battle next weekend

UCLA has won 7 in a row and 11 of 12. WSU has won 5 in a row and 9 of 10. UCLA plays one non-conference game this week and WSU has two. Somethings is going to give next weekend.

by Coug1990 on May 23, 2010 5:31 PM PDT reply actions  

I'll believe it when I see it.

I’ll take the traditionally pessimistic Cougar-fan attitude here.

Assuming the PAC10 website has the win totals sufficiently updated (I think they do): UCLA is 40-11 overall and WSU is 30-18. (ignoring conference records for the time being)

That is a pretty substantial difference. A difference that WSU can not make up in this final week of play even if they win out and UCLA loses out.

My opinion is that as long as UCLA does not get swept by WSU, they have a strong chance of hosting a regional, especially if RPI is deemed relevant by the committee (UCLA’s RPI was #8 as of last week before sweeping Cal. WSU’s RPI was #32 last week as mentioned earlier by Nuss).

If WSU sweeps UCLA, maybe UCLA will not be able to host a regional. But, being the pessimistic Cougar that I am, I would be willing to bet that the committee would still look elsewhere for the host of a Regional. There ought to be over sixteen 40-win teams by the end of next week and none of which will be the Cougars. All of which will probably have a higher RPI. That may be reason enough to oust the Cougars even if they are the 2nd best team in what is one of the top two baseball conferences in the country.

Pullman has great sunny summer weather this time of year. But not many people know that. And nobody likes to travel all the way to the Pacific Northwest if they can help it. I think Pullman and B-B Field would make an excellent spot to host a Regional, but I do not represent public perception.

by cfred on May 23, 2010 5:49 PM PDT reply actions  

You're probably right

But my thought was that there’s no way this conference doesn’t have two teams hosting regionals.

by Jeff Nusser on May 23, 2010 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

At the games

Not many braved the weather this weekend but for those of us who were there, we saw our Cougs at their best. As I said before, this is a great bunch of kids with a desire to win.
I am far from being a pessimistic fan but I have to agree that hosting a Regional is a longshot. B-B has the playing surfaces and is certainly fan friendly enough to host but it may be a while before we get that honor. If it happens no one will be happier then me. WOW, just think how great it would be to sit through all that great baseball.

by coug0105 on May 23, 2010 9:34 PM PDT reply actions  

Not 100% sure this is true, but have heard...

2 criteria for hosting: 1) top 16 team, obviously, and 2) you had to apply to be a host at some point in the season and that has lapsed without WSU applying.

Again, not sure that’s 100% true but it’s what I was told.That said, I’m with you – if we sweep UCLA, end up 2nd in a top 3 conference & win the 2 OOC games (wish we didn’t have both) then it would be hard to believe that they a) wouldn’t give a 2nd #1 seed to a PX team, and b) they’d have a hard time picking someone over WSU.

Friday night’s game is HUGE. A must. Win that & hopes are up; lose and there’s pressure to hand onto 3rd over the weekend. UCLA will be fighting to host, so will be motivated all weekend.

Making the trek up this weekend to LA! Probably staying until we lose, so here to hoping for a long stay in LA.

by SDCoug on May 23, 2010 11:19 PM PDT reply actions  

All I know is what Craig told me

And he said he didn’t see any reason why WSU couldn’t be selected.

by Jeff Nusser on May 24, 2010 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

Looks like you're correct, SD

Link

We didn’t bid for this years or last years, but would like to for next years. The baseball field is getting some nice upgrades this offseason, including a sweet mini version of the jumbotron in Martin.

by Brian Floyd on May 26, 2010 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

Cougar Baseball is for real

How exciting it is to be talking about Cougar Baseball like we are today. It’s been a six year project with tons of work. We still have 5 games scheduled that we need to win. The old adage of one game at a time is so true today but unless we have a complete blow out we are going to the NCAA Tournament for back to back seasons. I know I am preaching to the choir but hopefully all of us are doing what we can for the baseball fundraising. Send a check if you can, help anyway you can. Spread the word!!!!!! Get as many on board as you can. 46 runs against USC, now that’s exciting!!!!!

PS Nuss ride with us, we drive over

by coug0105 on May 24, 2010 9:50 PM PDT reply actions  

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