What are the Cougs' chances in the NCAA tournament?
by Brian Floyd on Jun 1, 2010 2:33 PM PDT
in WSU Baseball News
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PrintMany of you may be curious about the Cougs chances of getting out of the regional tournament this weekend. On one hand, we could look at the other teams in the regional, compare their stats, and decide who matches up well with WSU. On the other, we could cheat and use Boyd's World's ISR to project the chances of advancing through every step of the tournament. For a primer about ISR, check out Boyd's World. In short, the statistic uses winning percentage with strength of schedule and iterative calculates them to come up with a rating for each team.
Below are the chances of each team in the Fayetteville pod. The probabilities from left to right: regional, super regional, semifinals, and champions. For the complete table, go here.
The Cougs have a 1 in 4 chance of making it out of the regionals, according to ISR's projection. This is the 5th best probability of teams not seeded No. 1. They also hold a .1% chance of winning it all. We've got a shot!
Around the Pac-10, No. 3 seeds Oregon and Oregon State both hold higher chances of advancing than WSU (30% and 26.1% respectively). Arizona State is the odds on favorite to win it all with a win probability of 57%. Nobody else is even in double digits. The projection system likes the Pac-10, with all teams at least having a fighting chance of getting out of the regionals.
Consider this an early projection of how the Cougs will fare throughout the tournament. Of course, games are not played on paper, but this is a decent baseline to keep in mind as we begin action on Friday. We'll have more about the Cougs and their opponents throughout the week and full coverage as games kick off on Friday.
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Nice find
I referenced this guy’s work last year. It’s similar to the Basketball Prospectus Log5 stuff they do for the NCAA basketball tournament. He’s where I got my NCAA data as well for my monster spreadsheet.
I got sidetracked looking up RPIs a few days ago
It’s awesome that they do ISR projections for the tournament. I definitely suggest poking around that site to get a better idea on ratings and where we fit in.
Cool, I didn't know this existed
I like how ASU has a 57% chance to win the whole thing and no other team has better than 10%. Cal State Fullerton is next with 8.7%…
Not for Grambling
They couldn’t even get a .1 in the regional column, which is amazing. I would think if they played it 1,000 times, Grambling could win once.
by spencer peaty on Jun 1, 2010 7:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Ive been looking at them
I don’t know if they would. Their season was not good at all. The only real winning streak they had came in the last two games of the season and the conference tournament they swept in the powerhouse that is the SWAC.
by Brian Floyd on Jun 1, 2010 7:25 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Good stuff but....
No way in h%$$ does ASU have 10x the chance of winning it all as a team like Texas. I’m shocked they’re not even in the consideration set here. UVa should get a little more consideration as well.
As much as I wanted to Cougs in Fullerton, this helps illustrate that our odds are better in Arky.
It’s also interesting how poorly they think of UConn. #2 seed who is HOSTING their regional, yet UO is considered more of a threat.
Love these kind of stats (although you have to take with a grain of salt).
I'll be interested to look back on this later
And see how well ISR performs.
It’s fun to play with before the tournament, but once it gets going all bets are off. I do like our odds getting out of the regional and this helped solidify my thinking.
By the way, since homefield can’t really be quantified in baseball as it is in basketball and football, it isn’t used in these stats so that may be part of the UConn deal.
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