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Random thoughts and notes


I rewatched Saturday's game this morning and had a few things I wanted to throw out there.  Observations, notes and an interesting set of stats.  I don't know that they deserve their own FanPost, but I figured it'd be too long for a comment, and others might want to add/detract/correct me.

Star-divide

First off, some notes about Montana State.

1) Denarius McGhee is good.  He threw a catchable ball, and threw really well on the run.  He always kept his eyes down field when he was pushed out of the pocket and his decision-making was solid when he had time.  Impressive for a true freshman.

2) They're well coached, particularly on D.  Their players were pretty consistently in position to make a play.  They read their keys well and got where they needed to.  Their tackling was solid for the most part.

3) Their linebackers are SOLID.  They were flying all over the field and making plays.  They struck me as the type of players who, during recruiting were a half step slow for FBS safeties, and just a shade small for FBS linebackers.  But they played with a chip on their shoulder the whole time.  Especially Clay Bignell.

Okay, now for our boys...

There were several dropped passes in the first half that would have allowed us to keep drives alive.  There were also balls that sailed on an open receiver.  Jeff Tuel and Paul Wulff each mentioned nerves, or pressure, or whatever, which would definitely factor in here.  Had more of those plays been made, I think the complexion of the game would have changed dramatically.

Three turnovers leading to only 9 points.  Could have been SO much worse.

I thought the offense was almost executing okay, but definitely not good enough (in the first half, especially).  There were lots of dropped balls and sailing passes, and few running lanes.  Miscues came at inopportune times and ended up killing drives.

I like that the offense tries to be balanced in running and passing, but it's clear that running the ball is the weaker of the two for this team (due to aforementioned lack of running lanes).  Why are we acting like a running team that also throws the ball, rather than playing to our relative strength (passing) to set up the run?  I thought the play calling was bland, and didn't play to our strengths.  If you take out Monty's 70 yard run, we averaged 1.2 ypc, and we seem to run from all the obvious formations (under center, FB and TB w/1 or 2 TEs).

In the first half, I counted only 6 blitzes in 40 plays (though I missed MSU last possession due to FSN's "technical difficulties") or 15% of defensive plays.  All of them were on 3rd down.  1 flushed McGhee out of the pocket, but he ran for 8 yards and a 1st down, 1 was a completed pass to a TE and a first down, 1 was a designed QB run play that resulted in a 4th down, and 3 resulted in no gain or an incomplete pass, 1 of which was nearly intercepted.  So 6 blitzes, 2 conversions.

In the second half, I counted 14 blitzes on 37 plays, or 38%.  7 on 1st down, 4 on 2nd,  2 on 3rd and 1 on 4th.  They resulted in 3 completed passes for 1st down, 1 8 yd pass, 1 8 yd run, 1 2 yd run, 1 tackle for no gain, 2 incompletions, 1 TFL, 1 sack,   and 3 interceptions.  That's 14 blitzes, 3 1st down conversions, 3 interceptions, 2 plays for 8 yds, 1 play for 2 yds, 3 plays for no gain and 2 plays for a loss.

Tyree Toomer wearing LeAndre Daniels' number was awesome.  The living room was a little dusty both times I watched that.

The D line did well at creating pressure even without blitzes.  There was GREAT push up the middle from Justin Clayton and Brandon Rankin.  McGhee was just REALLY good at avoiding the pressure.  Travis Long was an absolute destroyer of screens.

CJ Mizell got a lot of playing time.  I saw him show up about half way through the 2nd quarter, and I think he was on the field the rest of the game.  And he inserted himself into a LOT of plays.

Myron Beck was a monster.  Dude's become my favorite Coug of this squad.  He was rip-snortin' all over the place and at or near the ballcarrier when he went down 2/3 of the time.

Deonne Buchanon might have the special teams tackle of the year, so far.  He BLEW UP a blocker before absolutely STICKING the kick returner on the 17.

As mentioned elsewhere, I thought clock management was an issue, particularly at the end of the first half, but also at the end of the game, even with the official's clock error.

I still think the pieces are there for this team to become competitive over the course of this season.  I told myself I wouldn't set any expectations or make any hard evaluations until after SMU, and I'm going to stick by that.

That said, I hope, I hope, I hope, that two adjustments are made going forward:  1) that the playcalling strategy is switched from a "run to set up the pass" mentality, to a "pass to set up the run" with more of a spread type system; and 2) that the coaches mix more blitzes in (closer to the 38% than the 15%).

I'm nervous and excited about SMU next week.  Excited, because I think when the team "clicks", it'll put a much better product on the field, and I don't think it's all that far off.  Nervous, because I think this team is better than it's shown, but I haven't seen anything definitive to make me take that on anything but faith.

This FanPost does not necessarily reflect the views of the site's writers or editors, who may not have verified its accuracy. It does, however, reflect the views of this particular fan, which is just as important as the views of our writers or editors.

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Excellent analysis.-

Love the blitz percentage numbers.

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by Craig Powers on Sep 14, 2010 7:14 AM PDT reply actions  

Blitzing vs. SMU

I completely agree with you that we need to blitz more, especially early, but how do you think that will work against the Run and Shoot? Obviously we can’t just let their QB sit back there and pick us apart, but we can’t be bringing the house every time either. it’s a fine line to walk in this game. Will be interesting to see what they come up with in this one.

One thing I think would do wonders for this team is to just go out, not think too much and have fun. Football is supposed to be fun. we got a team of young/talented skill guys, cut ’em loose a little bit, let their natural abilities take over and have some fun boys!

by coug2828 on Sep 14, 2010 8:26 AM PDT reply actions  

The blitzes weren't all the same

most came from the outside backers, Beck and AHE, if I remember right. But I remember seeing Chima back there and Toomer back there at least once each (I think I remember Toomer in the backfield twice). Anyways, most of the ones I charted had the 4 linemen and 2 blitzers, but a few had just one blitzer, and one or two had 3 blitzers.

For me, it’s more the decision that we’re going to apply pressure through blitzing more often, rather than tying it to any particular number. If you show blitz every other down, but only ACTUALLY blitz every 8th, and only if it’s a 3rd down… kinda the definition of predictable. If you’re willing to bring it on any down, from any player and any number of players, you’re much more likely to keep them guessing, and force mistakes, whether by the QB, a lineman or a receiver (if I recall correctly, the WRs adjust their routes in the Run and Shoot based on what they see in coverage).

Blitzing 40% of the time is probably video game territory. For me, it’s more about making the threat of burying the opposing quarterback enough of a reality that their players make mistakes, which is the whole point of blitzing.

by TiltingRight on Sep 15, 2010 1:02 AM PDT up reply actions  

Great read

Thanks for the stats on the blitzes. Seems like a no brainer to put heat on a true frosh QB and alter looks, but keep putting the ears back and coming at him. That was a vet Mont. St. squad that stayed in their gaps and made few errors— the frosh QB, least experienced, ended up making the handful that helped us.

A few more random thoughts-

1) Zack Williams simply HAS to get the ball back quicker on the snap. The timing is slightly off when you observe it… miniscule, but vital.

2) Our hogs aren’t quick on the O-line- they need to tighten the splits. Right now shooting a gap and creating a pile is far too easy for the opposition linemen. Tighten splits on short yardage plays FOR CERTAIN- those smallish Bobcat DT’s just rocketed into gaps and guessed right a lot.

3) Don’t stop throwing the slant after a few drops. That pass is working and getting the confidence and timing of that play down is crucial. Feels like Soloman or Blackledge drop one and Tuel just doesn’t go there anymore. Perhaps it is Sturdy who doesn’t- but open is open and you must throw it there until it closes. It follows of course that this adjustment by the D creates a new option for the WR’s elsewhere.

4) CJ Mizell is a raw talent. He makes stuff happen- but keep in mind the flea flicker TD was completely on him. He is a frosh and you must take the good w/ the bad if you plug him in and start him. But goodness the sky is the limit as he figures out the game!

5) Kick the damn FG’s. Show some faith in the guy- Grasu clearly has confidence issues. The 56 yarder was great- let’s try to get him on a roll. The 4th down tries (especially after the penalty) were silly. How big would the additional 3 or 6 points have been? Get points out of a drive… the kids are so young they need those mini moral victories.

6) The lob to Kars is a terrific short yardage option. He has proven time and again he will go get the thing. Play action dive- throw the lob- especially vs. the smaller DB’s.

7) Stop over pursuing the ball. The counters vs. OK ST were brutal. The totally had our defense flowing at the fake. Stay in your gaps- play the ball, not the flow.

If you can't Go Cougs... don't go.

by hollyweirdcoug on Sep 14, 2010 11:18 AM PDT reply actions  

The flea-flicker was more on Toomer than Mizell

Toomer admitted as much. The backside post is the safeties responsibility. Mizell bought on the fake, but Toomer froze on the coverage. That stuff happens with a young defense. They set that play up all game and it worked to perfection.

I agree with your assessment though and a lot of these things are small. Splits are easy to change, checking to mismatches isn’t hard and playcalling can be changed. Now we just have to see if they do.

by Brian Floyd on Sep 14, 2010 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

Walden and Sorenson felt it was on CJ

My good friend who was at the game is a legendary Coug LB- he has asked never to be named by me on these sites… said he thought it was CJ’s coverage area that was left completely empty.
I like that the safety took the blame- any long pass gain is ultimately going to be on a FS or SS. But not knowing the specific coverage aspects of our defensive set I will trust your take… but Paul and my friend know whereof they speak… as does Walden.

CJ has had a lot of trouble with pass coverage thus far- he is a run stuff LB currently, as are a lot of HS studs. Not bashing, just commenting… real glad the kid is in the fold.

If you can't Go Cougs... don't go.

by hollyweirdcoug on Sep 14, 2010 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

Agreed, pass coverage is a work in progress for him

I didn’t see what coverage they were in, but in order for that to be on Mizell he’d have to be hitting a deep drop. I’d give your guy the benefit of the doubt on that take, though. In all likelihood, it was a combination of the two. Mizell had underneath and the safety had over the top.

Either way, the MSU WR clear of the defense by a good bit when the ball came out.

by Brian Floyd on Sep 14, 2010 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

Wulff said the same thing today

CJ’s mistake gave up a TD; still a little too inconsistent. I like the way they’re handling him though – getting him reps but making him earn the PT.

by SDCoug on Sep 14, 2010 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

FGs

Grassu was hurt, and it would have been really long going into the wind so didn’t want to put extra strain on his leg. After the penalty it was a no brainer to go for it IMO. You’d only get 20 yards out of a punt, and way too far into the wind to kick a FG. Definitely not the heat of Stillwater. He put faith in his Defense, and believed his offense could get yards. No problem at all with that decision.

At the end so many things can go wrong with a FG (2 of 3 results are bad), so decided to sit on the ball & force them to go 80+ yards in under a minute. Again, no issues with that choice either.

Williams’ snaps are killing me though, but thought they were better than there were vs. Okie. Hopefully they get better.

by SDCoug on Sep 14, 2010 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

He hasn't played center in a long time

I’d expect consistent improvement from him on a lot of fronts.

by Jeff Nusser on Sep 14, 2010 6:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

I hate it when there is dust in the living room.

"John, I was first team All-State. I can put the ball anywhere I want to. I'll make it rain out here." - Jeremy Grey

by SoCalCoug on Sep 14, 2010 9:59 PM PDT reply actions  

Building off of what PhilKid3

posted in Craig’s “Throw the damn ball” post (Okay, I know that wasn’t the actual title, but I’m sure it’s what he REALLY wanted to call it), I dug up some statistics.

First, his link to smartfootball.com said that a truly balanced offense will have a 1 yard passing premium. So, for example, 7ypp, 6ypr averages. So what are WSU’s averages (keep in mind it’s only 2 games)?

Yards per pass 7.05
Yards per run 2.90

… yeah, we need to throw the damn ball more.

by TiltingRight on Sep 15, 2010 1:40 PM PDT reply actions   2 recs

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