The Quickest Fix For WSU's Problems
by Grady Clapp on Jan 1, 2011 6:38 PM PST
in 2011-2012 WSU Basketball News
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PrintWe've turned the page to 2011, and with that comes a fresh start for the WSU basketball team.
Thank goodness, too, because the last three games have been a nightmare for the Cougs. A second half collapse against Butler, a second half collapse against UCLA, and a second half collapse followed by an almost comeback (yay?) against USC.
Rather than get into the specifics, though, of what caused the Cougars to have so much trouble over the last week of the year, I've decided to look at the big picture. I don't claim to be an expert on X's and O's, but with advanced stats we can track the general attributes that make a team good or bad.
The good news is that WSU is a good team. Kenpom's rankings put them at #36 and project an 11-7 conference record. Even with the opening sweep on the road. WSU ranks 41st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 35th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They aren't elite on either end of the floor, but they're good enough in both to where they can make some waves in conference play. If they play up to potential.
Looking at the four factors, WSU performs average, or above average in all four defensive categories. That's great, and it's an incredible turnaround from last season. WSU has some issues - and it's unclear whether they'll be a predominately zone team or man team. But for the most part the defense was sound in 2010. The offense is the 21st best team in the country in two areas: shooting (eFG%) and lack of turnovers (TO%). That's great as well.
Now the bad news. There are two problematic factors for WSU on offense, and they are two areas we really can't overlook any more. This weekend proved they are catching up with the team. One is free throw rate, where the Cougs rank 297th when it comes to scoring at the line. I see this improving dramatically: WSU was 29th (!) in this category last season, and still have several great foul-drawers on the roster. Reggie Moore was 26th nationally in individual free throw rate last season; he continues to get healthier. Klay Thompson, DeAngelo Casto and Marcus Capers were also all great at earning free throws last year. As a team we are due for some progression to the mean.
Offensive rebounding is the other key issue. WSU ranks 291st here, and rebounding was a key issue during WSU's second half collapse at UCLA. WSU only grabs 28.4% of the available offensive rebounds. Pittsburgh (Tops in the nation) grabs 47.4 percent, for comparison. The Cougs don't appear to be due for progression here. James Watson - who would have been a huge help in this area - is no longer with us. Marcus Capers is as good of an offensive rebounder as you can get from the guard position... but he's also a guard. Not to mention his shared minutes with Faisal Aden and Moore. DeAngelo Casto helps immensely, but he's about the only consistent threat - and he can't play a full 40 minutes every night.
This brings me to the title of my post. There's one player who currently leads the team in offensive rebounding percentage, and gives you the added bonus of having the fifth best free throw rate on the team. His minutes, however? Seventh best on the team, at 18.4 per game. In the last three games: he only logged 17 minutes versus Butler, 15 minutes at UCLA and a paltry eight last night at USC. He was never in foul trouble.
The player's name? Brock Motum.
There are a lot of complex issues with WSU right now. Mixed in with some bad luck of late, the result has been a three game losing streak that has many of us scratching our heads. There is still hope - like I said, WSU is a good team and hopefully that comes through down the stretch. Nevertheless, there is one easy fix WSU can make right now to get instantly better: give more minutes to Brock Motum. Casto will need to play 25-30 minutes every night barring foul trouble. Abe Lodwick is still necessary for his defensive rebounding, and should get 15-20 minutes or so each night. If they take up 40 to 50 of the 80 available minutes at the 4 and the 5, there is still more than enough time to get Brock 20 to 25 minutes on any given night. And he can make a positive impact for the Cougars if he's given the chance. He has an offensive rating so far of 125.6 (not sustainable, but fun), commits few turnovers and should have a high ceiling on defense.
Ken Bone's new year's resolution? It should be finding more playing time for Motum.
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Brock "Fire Marshall Bill Burns" Motum
As much as I like Casto, Brock is a good change of pace. He also possesses something that Casto doesn’t: the ability to go a ways outside. I’m not talking 3 pointers, but he can take the ball farther from the hoop than Casto. Also, he doesn’t drop the ball every other time it hits his hands. I’d really like to see the two of them on the floor at the same time, but that just isn’t realistic with the depth we have.
"And here commmmmmmme the Buckeyyyyyyyyyes" ~Brent Musberger
Casto has yet to shoot a 3 this year.
He’s capable of making it. I’ve seen him hit plenty in person. But he probably knows it’s not his strong suit.
I wouldn't have guessed that his percentage was that high to be totally honest.
"And here commmmmmmme the Buckeyyyyyyyyyes" ~Brent Musberger
Can I volunteer to drive the Brock Motum bandwagon?
Seeing as Jeff already took Capers.
"If you want your dreams to come true, don't sleep in."
So why do you assume..
That Motum’s high offensive rating isn’t sustainable with more minutes, but that his O rebounding rate and Free Throw rate are? I bet Bone has a good idea from practices combined from what he has seen in practice to have a good feel for who is the best O rebounder and it is hard for me to imagine him keeping his best rebounder off the floor. I bet you give Motum more minutes, you will see some serious regression in the O rebounding rate.
As far as the offensive rating goes, it's unlikely his FG% (which is what really drives it) would stay that high with more minutes.
Agree I’d like to see more of him, though. Bone seems to lack confidence in him to some extent, but I don’t know how much we can play Capers and Lodwick at the same time.
by Coug Friendly Canuck on Jan 2, 2011 7:45 AM PST up reply actions
Motum can also get the Casto bobbles
Does anybody else remember this? In the first half vs. USC, Motum came in and bobbled two passes, resulting in turnovers and committed a quick foul. Perhaps that is why he didn’t see the floor much on Friday. Sometimes he looks so smooth, but sometimes he seems to hurry and fails to secure the pass or get balanced under the basket.
Great question
His O-rating is crazy high… and I don’t think Motum has the pure offensive talent to keep that up. Not to mention his FG% is artificially inflating his offensive stats. No one shoots that well over the course of the season.
But his OR% at 10.6 looks sustainable relative to his talent. James Watson posted an OR% of 17.6 last season. I’m not expecting Motum to do that… but he’s a much better alternative than Lodwick (3.5 this season, 8.8 previously) and from what I’ve seen in game time Brock can crash the offensive glass well. You are right, however, that Bone should know better than I do what his real potential is. But I don’t see regression… the talent he’s facing improves in the Pac-10, but I expect him to improve as well.
Writer: CougCenter Twitterer: @GradyClapp
Brock Motum should start
and get 30+ minutes/per game, at least that’s what his stats and the naked eye gauge have led me to believe. This judgement isn’t just from this year either, but also from what he was able to do at the end of last season. The guy is our smoothest big man—by far in my estimation—shoots better, and rebounds and defends as good as the others. DeAngelo can block shots like some kind of behemoth and otherwise has the talent to also start, but I wouldn’t put him ahead of Motum. Abe should be coming off the bench with no more minutes, generally speaking, than Patrick Simon. I only say “generally” b/c Patrick’s in a slump right now and Abe has done well the last few games in playing within his role, but Patrick will be a star in this league (by star I mean 15-20 pts/game) eventually if he’s given plenty of PT on a consistent basis. Between the four, given my bleacher seat perspective which obviously can’t taken into consideration whatever Coach Bone sees in practice, etc., I would say Brock should get 30 minutes/outing, Casto 20-25, Simon 15-20, and Abe 10—roughly speaking.
I think he's closer to a 3...
But seriously I think it would be cool to see Motum and Casto out there together but ya I don’t think its realistic.
"And here commmmmmmme the Buckeyyyyyyyyyes" ~Brent Musberger
by Coug999 on Jan 2, 2011 3:39 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I would love to see this too
I think it is the big combo with the most potential. Too bad Stevie B hasn’t been able to contribute. A bit of development out of him would be a nice insurance policy for the bigs, and would give Bone some options.
I wouldn't go so far as starting him
DeAngelo Casto is still a gamechanger on defense, and his offense looked great against USC, so as far as I’m considered he’s untouchable.
I’m more intrigued how Bone divides up the time at the 4, and what he does when Casto is on the bench. My feeling is we should almost always have Motum out on the floor whenever DeAngelo is resting.
Writer: CougCenter Twitterer: @GradyClapp
This is the issue.
Motum is Casto’s primary backup at the 5. After that it’s Enquist. It makes it a bit scary to have both of them on the floor at the same time if fouls become an issue.
It’ looks like Simon is Lodwicks primary backup at the 4. Motum is seeing a few minutes there when Bone can get away with it. And though I hate it, we’ve now seen our first glimps of Capers at the 4. But his creates the same issue with depth at guard. Capers getting minutes at the 4 means Winston is now the next guard off the bench.
Enquist, Winston … hmmmm. Tough call.
I don't see why
Motum can’t play the 4 with Casto on the floor and 5 when he’s not. Is the only reason why this wouldn’t work so well is b/c there’s a chance they could both be in foul trouble at the same time and then we don’t have an adequate 5 backup? If that’s the reason, then UCLA shouldn’t be starting Smith. Seems to me that you start your best players and play them the most, players that also happen to play better together than the Casto and Abe combination (I believe), and then you transition as you need to. Why handicap yourself from the beginning…just b/c you might…possibly…have to handicap yourself later on if you play to your strength from the beginning?
Notice
how it’s impossible for two people on the same team to get charged for a foul at the same time. If Casto picks up his 3rd and would normally sit, then he does while Motum is still on the floor. If Motum then gets his 3rd, we’re talking in the first half here, then they both sit…you know for the remaining 30 seconds of the half…since that’s about all the time that would be left in the exceptionally rare case of them both picking up three fouls with Patrick and Abe already relieving the two to some degree.
The point is that under the current rotation
the Cougs have their better players getting the minutes. There is less of a chance of both of them being in foul trouble if they are not on the floor at the same time. A great example was during the Baylor game. If Casto gets into trouble you can bring a fresh Motum off the bench, rather than one who might have been the next guy to get a blow, and now is forced to extent his minutes, or you go with Enquist. What Bone is doing is making sure he has an affective 5 on the floor at all times, and sneaks Motum some minutes at the 4 when he can.
I agree with you, I think having them both on the floor gives us the best potential.
But it is a risk. You’ll notice that even though both Smith and Nelson start for UCLA, they actually don’t spend that many minutes playing together. Casto has a propensity to foul, in which case you need Motum available.
Scoring
The Cougs lost by 9 and 4pts. Motum didn’t play big minutes in either. Shooting around 65% from point blank range off guard penetration, seems like a good way to get the score board ticking over when the threes aren’t falling. Looking at the stats when Motum plays minutes he scores at a high percentage (Kansas the exception) and around 11 pts. My prediction on Motum increased minutes = increased scoring and fg percentage, increased scoring = wins (particularly when you lose by 9 and 4).
by St James Boanerges on Jan 2, 2011 3:03 PM PST reply actions
Quickest Fix- The schedule
The three losses in the last three games have been against the 29, 55 and 42 KenPom ranked teams with the last two on the road after a long trip. I think it’s going to look like something has changed if they they turn things around the next 4 games but a lot of it will have more to do with the toughest three game stretch of the year being over with.
by Vegasexpat on Jan 2, 2011 7:15 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
indeed
I think if two weeks from now and we’re 3-3 in conference with the Arizona schools coming to Pullman, that’s around where we want to be.
Rec'd
It’s easy to overanalyze deficiencies in our game after a loss, just as it’s easy to assume we’ll never lose again after we look great winning big.
"I mean I was like, okay, there you go, you wanna hit me? There you go, one pitch for you. You don't get it? You have no chance." ~ Felix Hernandez
by johnnycougar on Jan 3, 2011 10:24 AM PST up reply actions
I think there are very real issues
But I also think they were magnified by the competition, travel, location, etc.
Er, yes
"I mean I was like, okay, there you go, you wanna hit me? There you go, one pitch for you. You don't get it? You have no chance." ~ Felix Hernandez
And not necessarily the strength of team but the match-ups
Didn’t anyone actually WATCH Brock against UCLA & USC? He was getting manhandled & looked intimidated. Those were two very bad match-ups for him. Stepheson/Vucevic and Smith/Nelson were sliding him 2-3 feet at a time. These were NOT good match-ups for him. He’d end up on his ass as the rest of the players were running up the court.
I have heard from multiple coaches they would LOVE to see Brock step up & earn more minutes at the #4 but he simply hasn’t done so. He’s lost at times in the offense when playing the #4 & hasn’t established an identity. Poor shot selection; poor passing, etc. Lodwick has simply outplayed him forcing him to earn minutes behind D’. Against USC DeAngelo was the only player playing well so of course they’re going to ride him as much as possible and sit Brock.
I’d love to see Brock step up & reestablish himself. I LOVED his play against Fresno St when he was forced to start. He played up to it and his interior D’ was incredible. Lately though, he simply is getting overmatched by the 2 teams with the most interior size and rebounding. Hopefully won’t be the case moving forward.
I would be curious to see what would have happened with him on the floor on that last possession against USC. I tend to believe that when Klay creates, like he did at the end, Brock easily moves best without the ball & would have had himself in position under the hoop. Casto tends to watch, while Lodwick is not as aggressive.
This is why I'd like him to get more minutes
I tend to believe that when Klay creates, like he did at the end, Brock easily moves best without the ball & would have had himself in position under the hoop. Casto tends to watch, while Lodwick is not as aggressive.
Even though the guards are the main issue, Brock can help jumpstart this thing a little bit because of this ability.
Agreed, but unfortunately
…there’s the D-end as well and USC & UCLA bigs dominated him.
Love his O’, but just didn’t see the D’ match-up being good for him in LA. Hopefully should be MUCH better moving forward.
Definitely has the highest BB IQ of all the bigs and love his movement.
Hopefully his lack of D’ in LA is just due to fatigue. Faced some tough bigs in Hawaii as well. And we know he doesn’t have the muscle of Casto or Lodwick yet.
Do agree I’d love to see more minutes from him but in watching Lodwick closely his defensive rebounding was very impressive and much needed. So tough to pull from D’ or Abe.
But we don't have to play USC or UCLA again until March 3 and 5
Which is my point. We’re trying to figure out ways to jumpstart the offense now, and I think he can be a huge part of that against OSU, Oregon, Cal and Stanford.
And you’re dead on about Abe’s defensive rebounding — he now ranks second on the team behind Casto, and no regular contributor (40 percent of minutes or more) is even close. He’s doing a heck of a job this year.
More info?
I think this is a great comment "He’s lost at times in the offense when playing the #4 & hasn’t established an identity. Poor shot selection; poor passing, etc. " but would like more information.
If multiple coaches are saying this as you claim, then is it his point blank layups that are poor selections, his 50% 3pt shooting? the fact he simply creates space and catches and shoots from the short corner that means he doesn’t have an identity?
Surely the multiple coaches can offer some insight into how 8pts and 3.1 reb a game and 1 assist to one turnover equates to a drop of 12 min in court time. I mean he is not great, but being out played by a guy averaging 3 pts at 33% and 22% 3pg with 4 rebounds (that is 1 more than Motum) needs more explanation? particularly when it is mentioned by multiple coaches?
It is not a big deal, Abe is a great defender, and leader, and Casto can get going and dominate but if they are going to get around 30minutes a game, I just hope they offer enough consistency to carry the team from the inside and generate more wins. I think WSU should finish around the top of the pac-10, the question is whether Abe and Casto are the players to get them there?
by St James Boanerges on Jan 4, 2011 4:41 AM PST up reply actions
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