EDIT NUSS: Promoted. Enjoy the discussion before the tournament tips off in an hour.
Earlier in the season I created a graph that broke up the odds of getting into the NCAA tourney or the NIT based on a combination of your KenPom and RPI rankings calculated from historical data. Now that we are in tournament season I thought that I would revisit that graph and see how it stacked up to how the tournament fields were actually selected.
So as a reminder what the different fields mean:
NCAA: In this region a team is >90% likely to qualify for the NCAA tournament
The Bubble: In this region a team is about 50% likely to qualify for NCAA tourney, 50% likely to qualify for NIT
NIT: In this region a team is mostly likely to qualify for NIT
Outer Darkness: Unless you have a automatic berth to NCAA or NIT, you unlikely to get in.
(Click on the graph to get a larger view)
I am actually quite surprised with how well this graph performed. In ">90% likely to make NCAA" region all teams went dancing. In the 50-50 bubble region 4 teams went to the NIT (Missouri St., Cleveland St., St. Mary's and Virginia Tech) while 8 were At-Large bids to the NCAA (UAB, Georgia, UCLA, Michigan St., Michigan, FSU, Marquette, and Clemson). A little more skewed than I would have liked to see it, but probably ok. Only two teams were in the NIT range but got at-larges to the NCAA: USC and VCU. Unfortunately they play each other so one of them will at least one game in the tourney (VCU...)
On thing that stood out to me, is that the UAB and Clemson selections don't look like nearly the reaches by the committee that they have been made out to be.