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WSU Vs. UCLA Recap: Cougs Put Up A Fight, Fall Short In The End

Over 20 minutes, a team can survive playing on an emotional high. In the first half on Saturday, we saw just that as the Washington State Cougars came barreling out of the gate, holding the UCLA Bruins to just 19 first half points. The end result was a 13 point lead and a collection of fans stunned at the team's position.

But a college basketball game isn't 20 minutes, unfortunately, and it takes two halves to bring home a win. Over the second 20, UCLA's talent began to prevail, yet the Cougs still forced overtime. Over a long enough period of time, that talent will win out, especially when the gap is as great as it was yesterday.

Consider that Ben Loewen and Will DiIorio combined to play what almost amounts to a full game between the two of them -- Loewen, 21 minutes; DiIorio 18. Consider Marcus Capers, DeAngelo Casto, Abe Lodwick and Faisal Aden each played over 30 minutes, with Brock Motum knocking on the door. It was a seven man rotation of rag-tags going toe-to-toe with UCLA's All-Americans.

And I'm damn proud of each and every one of them.

Star-divide

I was as disappointed as anyone after the loss. I had to walk away to clear my head because of the frustration. The fact we were in the position to be emotionally invested in the game is a feat in itself. Nobody expected the Cougs to hold their own against UCLA, yet there they were.

And how did they do it? Besides the effort from the seven that saw floor time, this was the best coaching performance I've seen from anyone, at any level, in a long time. Ken Bone did a few things to throw UCLA off, and they all worked to perfection.

  • Trap the wings and post. On Friday, I felt Bone needed to find some way to pressure out of the zone. He did so by trapping every time the ball hit the wings or the low post. It left UCLA fewer options and floor space to work with.
  • Clog the high post. In a zone, The high post is the go-to spot to break down the defense. So what did WSU do? Dropped one of its guards into the high post. The Cougs were, essentially, daring UCLA to shoot while doing everything they could to keep the Bruins from getting easy shots.
  • When UCLA's bigs started to take over in the second half, an adjustment was made. It was an adjustment that worked, as well. WSU went to a box-and-one type defense. DeAngelo Casto sat in Josh Smith's hip and the Cougs ran what looked to be a box defense. The paint was, once again, clogged, and UCLA struggled.
  • Bone was still able to switch defenses, much to my surprise. WSU pressed, ran man-to-man, zone and even threw in a few junk defenses throughout the game. It kept Howland on his toes and gave the Bruins a few different looks.
  • On the offensive end, Bone quickly installed a Princeton-like offense. In the first half, everything ran out of the high post, with back cuts all over the place. They resulted in easy lay-ins and wide-open shots. It was perfectly suited for the personnel on the floor.
The only decision I wondered about, as many others did, concerned the use of Motum. But looking at when he was subbed in, it seems Bone was using Motum to end the first and second half. Consider Motum has never played more than 30 minutes in a game, and typically averages in the low-to-mid 20s. If I had to guess, Bone wanted Motum to close, and he did well in that role.

Yes, it was frustrating to see Aden waltz down the court and jack up a contested 25-footer to end the game -- and I have no doubt that was not the play. It was frustrating to see the inbounds pass go out of bounds in overtime on a poor pass. Just keep in mind this was the Cougs' third team, and it played so far above its head for 40 minutes, it's not even funny.

It would've been great to bring home a win, something we, as fans, and they, as a team, would likely remember for a very long time. But playing undermanned, the Cougs put on a show for us in a game I expected to be over before the first TV timeout. Any hopes of an at-large bid -- no matter how small they were before -- are gone with the loss, but boy did they put up a fight.

On Saturday, I was able to watch Klay Thompson show his character while apologizing for his arrest. I was able to watch a group that nobody gave a chance battle with UCLA. And I was emotionally invested in a game I didn't care much about before tip-off. Sports can be amazing sometimes.

Comment 82 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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Agreed

These guys have played really hard for the last three games — harder than any three-game stretch all year. That’s incredibly encouraging.

by Jeff Nusser on Mar 6, 2011 10:57 AM PST up reply actions  

Where is the mention of our odd rotation

We never saw Simon, or charlie or Winston (this one I am happy about). We could have kept our team fresh playing on a high. I think Simon is a good shooter.

by Dgood on Mar 6, 2011 10:57 AM PST reply actions  

It was a little weird

But he and Lodwick are sort of redundant. Yeah, Simon’s a better shooter, but Abe’s a much better rebounder. And rebounding was essential in this game — more important than shooting, I’d argue.

But yeah … would have loved to see some Motum as UCLA was tearing into the lead at the beginning of the second half.

by Jeff Nusser on Mar 6, 2011 10:59 AM PST up reply actions  

Wouldn't call it an odd rotation at all.

Simon has done very little since December. He’s just not ready for Pac-10 play right now. Winston is in the same boat. And Charlie? I wouldn’t put him up against any UCLA big, to be honest.

Simon has trouble on the defensive end — which would be a problem against UCLA — and trouble on the glass — also a problem against UCLA. It was either Simon, Motum or Lodwick to fill two spots and as annoyed as I am with Lodwick, I’d have to take him over Simon.

by Brian Floyd on Mar 6, 2011 11:12 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Rec'd for alternate reason-than just this game

This is exactly why I am not a Coug fan who feels this team has underachieved as so many say.
I love Abe’s effort, but I truly believe he wouldn’t play at all for 8 of the 10 PAC schools. His sub Simon is not ready for prime time either. Many, many games this year, on the offensive end of the floor the game was 3 on 5.

What may have been discovered however is that sometimes you can squeeze several quality minutes out of a ‘lesser’ guy who can defend. Delorio and Loewen proved that they will bring it- hard nosed D- which is never a bad thing for a sub. Might be very helpful in the leg wearying PAC tourney of back to back to back games if yoy win.

If you can't Go Cougs... don't go.

by hollyweirdcoug on Mar 6, 2011 12:24 PM PST up reply actions  

Would Patrick have played if we had a full roster available?

Probably not. Thing is, no one in the rotation at that position was missing. Therefore I wasn’t too surprised to see him (and Charlieball) on the bench.

Winston, on the other hand, I expected to see play.

Cougcenter OG

by J.J. FeKl on Mar 6, 2011 11:20 AM PST up reply actions  

No Simon was really odd

And with how much Bone plays Dre Winston I thought for sure we’d see him, possibly in high leverage situations.

I don’t know about you guys, but I miss James Watson. Some people will be quick to miss Xavier Thames… I think that one probably isn’t a big deal since we have Capers.

It will be great next year to (hopefully) have Steven Bjornstad back. Big men don’t grow on trees, and I love the fact we could get five years out of him.

Writer: CougCenter Twitterer: @GradyClapp

by Grady Clapp on Mar 6, 2011 11:27 AM PST up reply actions  

what is the actual situation with stevie b?

I know he was coming off of injury at the beginning of the season. He got a couple of minutes in a game and then we never saw him again. Is he still hurt? Does he just suck? What’s the deal?

by Jo-Jo on Mar 6, 2011 3:50 PM PST via mobile up reply actions  

Bad knees.

Like, he-could-end-up-on-medical-scholarship bad.

by Jeff Nusser on Mar 6, 2011 3:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Ouch.

Having another big guy would have been a big help.
Oh well, hope Bjornstad gets better soon

Attractive, Intelligent, Smart A**

by Neil Vincent Roberts on Mar 6, 2011 4:32 PM PST up reply actions  

Also, I know it's his call, but I would kill to have Klay return next year

I didn’t see it, but I hope the crowd could have conjured up a “one more year” chant.

Writer: CougCenter Twitterer: @GradyClapp

by Grady Clapp on Mar 6, 2011 11:29 AM PST reply actions  

There was a better one during warmups for the second half.

He was under the hoop rebounding shots and he was grinning while it was happening. He obviously heard it.

Attractive, Intelligent, Short Attention Span, Timbers Fan Reader

by Coug999 on Mar 6, 2011 12:35 PM PST up reply actions  

The recap took the right tone, to me

We had no business even being in that game, and the mere fact that we were colossaly disappointed is evidence of a team that kept us hoping when we initially thought there was no chance of winning.

That said, how crushing was the way we lost? Aden missing the free throw that could have put us up 3, the disappointing “play” to end the 2nd half, and faltering under UCLA’s increased ball pressure in OT. I guess you could say when we needed veteran leadership most, we didn’t have it (we all know why). I expected a little more of Lodwick and Capers at the end but I suppose they haven’t really been put in that type of situation before and must have been exhausted.

I’m proud of the Cougs and especially Coach Bone. On one (ONE!) day of practice he must have severely needed to change up our offense and it almost was enough to win. Even with Aden having a poor shooting night we had a chance to win at the end. Way more than we had a right to hope for.

"I mean I was like, okay, there you go, you wanna hit me? There you go, one pitch for you. You don't get it? You have no chance." ~ Felix Hernandez

by johnnycougar on Mar 6, 2011 11:36 AM PST reply actions  

Last nights game plan was some took Bennett Ball and Bone ball

and put them through a meat grinder, hoping it would come out okay. And boy did it ever.

Attractive, Intelligent, Smart A**

by Neil Vincent Roberts on Mar 6, 2011 11:51 AM PST reply actions  

Can someone explain the Winston "hate"?

It’s under the surface for the most part, but there have been comments throughout the year to the point that they are glad to not see Winston, or hope they don’t have to see Winston. Perhaps I haven’t paid close enough attention through the season, but I sat there and watched Dilorio over pursue on defense, try twice to tip jam (or something) when a simple rebound was doable and, finally, throw a ball over his head, right into the hands of a Bruin.

I’m don’t mean to be a detractor of Dilorio, but would Winston have really been that much worse?

I feel like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football. Ugh

by HitKing69 on Mar 6, 2011 11:52 AM PST reply actions  

I think you're comparing him to the wrong player.

DiIorio and Winston are two different players. Instead, I’d look at it as Loewen or Winston with regards to Saturday’s game. At this point in their development, they’re just about even, but Loewen has the experience and it was senior night. It seemed like a wash to me. DiIorio, on the other hand, was more of a Capers-type guy.

I do think Winston will be good, but I don’t think he was quite ready this year, something we found out early. But, like I said, down the line, I think he’ll be a nice player.

by Brian Floyd on Mar 6, 2011 12:16 PM PST up reply actions  

I think you said it right there

Lowen is a senior, last night only two underclassmen played, motum and dilorio. I think Bone correctly went for the experience over the youth on his roster. Also, Lowen played pretty well at the start so there wasnt much reason to sub him out.

As a side note, I coached Lowen at Mead for a couple of summer league games, it was fun to watch his final game in person.

We will call him Zatara.....sounds fearsome....It means driftwood.

by cfischer01 on Mar 6, 2011 3:36 PM PST up reply actions  

To me

Winston just looks either lost or out of control when he’s out there.

Attractive, Intelligent, Short Attention Span, Timbers Fan Reader

by Coug999 on Mar 6, 2011 12:37 PM PST up reply actions  

I've never gotten the sense that he looked out of control

Lost? Definitely. Just a total non-factor on the floor. Plus, he’s smallish — having a smallish but stronger guard made more sense yesterday.

by Jeff Nusser on Mar 6, 2011 12:47 PM PST up reply actions  

By out of control

I meant how it seems to me like he will just dribble in circles all around the defense on the offensive end and not really take care of the ball.

Attractive, Intelligent, Short Attention Span, Timbers Fan Reader

by Coug999 on Mar 6, 2011 12:49 PM PST up reply actions  

I am guessing the staff

was shocked at the intensity and relevent success of Loewen out there and simply stayed with him because he was bringing hard nosed defensive hustle and some good sense to ttake the air out of the ball on the O end.

If you can't Go Cougs... don't go.

by hollyweirdcoug on Mar 6, 2011 12:47 PM PST up reply actions  

So, how does everyone feel about playing UW again?

If Reggie is good to go, I really like this matchup. Despite the loss yesterday I think we came together well as a team, and the emotional response to the whole situation could carry over into the tournament. I really hope so.

If Reggie limited or can’t play, I don’t feel so good about it. But if he doesn’t play I wouldn’t feel good about any matchup.

Looks like our path to the final goes through UW and then likely UCLA (or Oregon-ASU winner). Beating those two teams would probably be seen as quality wins by the NCAA tournament committee, so it’s possible we could make a late charge for a final tourney spot. We’d need a lot of help, though, especially from bid stealers from mid-major conferences. Let’s hope teams like St. Mary’s win their tourneys, and all the other bubble teams lose in the first game!

"I mean I was like, okay, there you go, you wanna hit me? There you go, one pitch for you. You don't get it? You have no chance." ~ Felix Hernandez

by johnnycougar on Mar 6, 2011 11:53 AM PST reply actions  

I don't really like it, its hard to beat the same team 3 times in one year

I would have preferred USC again, but we seem to match up well this year. I also like our chances more against UCLA and of course, better against ASU and Oregon, I think we’re set up to make a decent run.
A couple wins could put us in, according to Lunardi, we’re number 5 out of the tournament.

by sdcoug09 on Mar 6, 2011 2:15 PM PST up reply actions  

As a UCLA fan I'm flattered

Calling the Bruins All Americans is making me blush. How can this be a moral victory? It was a death blow to WSU’s tourney hopes.

by KaponoMagic on Mar 6, 2011 12:05 PM PST reply actions  

Meh.

They were mostly dead anyway. That such a performance was unexpected yesterday made it fun.

by Jeff Nusser on Mar 6, 2011 12:10 PM PST up reply actions  

Understandable

I credit you Cougs fans for not focusing on Faisal Aden’s problems at the end. If it’s any consolation I heard Mychael Thompson Sr. interviewed here in L.A. on Friday – I think he’s going to make Klay stay another year as punishment.

by KaponoMagic on Mar 6, 2011 1:02 PM PST up reply actions  

I normally hate it when people say this,

but to be honest if Klay is going to stay, I want it to be ultimately because he wants to. Having a really good player on your team that doesn’t really want to be there can cause problems: see Kobe when he wanted to be traded.

Attractive, Intelligent, Short Attention Span, Timbers Fan Reader

by Coug999 on Mar 6, 2011 1:07 PM PST up reply actions  

Klay's family

Mychael is more respected in the NBA as a reporter than he was as a Laker – which is hard to believe but true here in L.A. Another guy I’m sure you guys hate, Don MacLean, said in an interview the other day that if the lockout delays the start of the NBA season the college players going pro wouldn’t get their 1st paycheck until 2012 – waiting from June to January or February for the money will be enough incentive to keep a lot of lottery tweeners(pick’s 12-20) out of the draft if their underclassman.

by KaponoMagic on Mar 6, 2011 1:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Well

Not punishment to be a Cougar but punished by not moving on to the promised land(NBA) just yet – he told Klay he was immature and embarrassed his family. He all but said another year in Pullman would be good for him.

by KaponoMagic on Mar 6, 2011 1:15 PM PST up reply actions  

He'll go when he's ready.

There are a number of reasons why a guy might not be ready. This could be one of them.

by Jeff Nusser on Mar 6, 2011 1:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Focusing on Faisal Aden's problems would've been pointless

And wasn’t the point I wanted to make. We all saw the game, we all know his deficiencies at this point in the season, so rehashing them and beating the dead horse wasn’t necessary.

by Brian Floyd on Mar 6, 2011 1:12 PM PST up reply actions  

When I watch a UCLA game

in 100% of their losses and 5% of their wins I say ‘Looks like the Bruins are in trouble’ with about a minute or two left. I said it yesterday and if not for a missed ft by Aden it was over.

by KaponoMagic on Mar 6, 2011 1:14 PM PST up reply actions  

It should tell you what we think about Aden at this point

That we don’t feel the need to flog him publicly. He’s a volume shooter who sometimes takes awful shots and doesn’t make nearly enough of them. We expect him to make his free throws, but we also fully expect him to do something (usually multiple somethings) terribly stupid during the course of a game.

So, even though you could “pin” yesterday’s loss on him, we’re like … /shrug/.

by Jeff Nusser on Mar 6, 2011 1:30 PM PST up reply actions  

From my perspective, Aden's missed FTs weren't that big

granted its always nice to get points but look at the game. We were up two and had our two best FT shooters on the sideline. I didn’t like out chances if we got into a free throw shooting contest. So the fact that UCLA only needed to tie and not foul was possibly more beneficial than having to make clutch free throws with players not used to that situation.

by sdcoug09 on Mar 6, 2011 2:19 PM PST up reply actions  

I respectfully disagree

I will take a 3-pointer, with an approximate 35 percent to 40 percent chance of going in, to someone shooting a pair of free throws, each of which have a 70ish percent chance of going in.

by Jeff Nusser on Mar 6, 2011 2:48 PM PST up reply actions  

good point Nuss

If you can't Go Cougs... don't go.

by hollyweirdcoug on Mar 6, 2011 5:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Both of those things happened within a one-minute time frame.

Honeycutt hit a 3 and Aden missing a FT. Aden a 77.4% FT shooter and Honeycutt a 35% 3pt shooter. Two stats that didn’t work in our favor with a minute to go. This is what crushed me about this game. I know we weren’t even suppose to be in this game, but I had a good feeling about this game. To be that close and lose was heartbreaking for me. We had a 4 pt lead with minute to go and we had the ball. Capers missed with a minute to go, which led to a 5 pt swing. Usually having the ball with a minute to go and a 4 pt lead is a nice place to be. Reading this play-by-play with 1:00 to go will just make you shake your head and makes you realize how lucky UCLA was to get out of Beasley with a win.

0:00 - - Period Over UCLA 48-48
0:01 WashSt F Aden 3 Point Miss UCLA 48-48
0:07 UCLA J Anderson Foul UCLA 48-48
0:08 - - Time Out UCLA 48-48
0:08 UCLA M Lee 1 Point Free Throw UCLA 48-48
0:08 UCLA M Lee 1 Point Free Throw WashSt 48-47
0:08 WashSt D Casto Foul WashSt 48-46
0:14 - - Time Out WashSt 48-46
0:14 WashSt F Aden 1 Point Free Throw WashSt 48-46
0:14 WashSt F Aden Missed Free Throw WashSt 47-46
0:14 UCLA J Anderson Foul WashSt 47-46
0:49 - - Time Out WashSt 47-46
0:49 UCLA T Honeycutt 3 Point Field Goal WashSt 47-46
1:00 WashSt M Capers 2 Point Miss WashSt 47-43

"Yaka Fest from outside for Klay Thompson" – Marques Johnson

by SoCalCoug on Mar 7, 2011 2:14 PM PST up reply actions  

Actually instead of punishment....

it gives him room to grow and make up for the respect lost since the event. Coug nation would respect him anyways, but the basketball nation would consider him immature.

by well you win some and lose others on Mar 6, 2011 3:03 PM PST up reply actions  

All-Americans?

Josh Smith, Brandon Lane, Jerime Anderson, Malcolm Lee, Tyler Honeycutt, and we can even throw in Anthony Stover — all four star or better recruits.

Compare that the team you played yesterday. Will DiIorio and Ben Loewen: Unranked, unrated and walk-ons. Marcus Capers, DeAngelo Casto, Abe Lodwick: Two star. Brock Motum, Faisal Aden: Three star.

Yes, it’s just star rankings, but the talent gap was so vast, the fact WSU was even in the game was incredible.

by Brian Floyd on Mar 6, 2011 12:14 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm wary of the stars

I’ve seen a lot of guys go from 3 star to 4 and 5 star because UCLA recruited them – Ben Howland is that respected in NBA talent evaluation circles after finding 3 star Russell Westbrook.

Here’s a more updated rating(mine) of the players you mentioned(from my observations):
Smith – 5 star
Lane – 2 star
Anderson – 3 star
Lee – 4 star
Honeycutt – 4 star

by KaponoMagic on Mar 6, 2011 1:06 PM PST up reply actions  

whether they develop or not

Howland has the situation of being able to look down the bench and see several more 4 stars on which he can call… that is the point of the stars discussion.

Smith a 5 star? You are generous- he is huge and needs to learn to move his feet on defense to stay out of constant foul trouble. He doesn’t start so that he won’t pick up the early fouls in the intense first 5 minutes of activity… speaks volumes about his head. He will get there, but is a long way off from elite status. Overweight- and hops are skeptical. Not that I wouldn’t take him in a heart beat- even a 3 star center is gold these days.

If you can't Go Cougs... don't go.

by hollyweirdcoug on Mar 6, 2011 4:57 PM PST up reply actions  

respectfully disagree-footwork is crucial in there

for the thicker bigs. Baynes is a perfect example- his footwork improved ten fold from soph to senior. The drop step- the square up- bodying up w/o drawing the foul- it is all technique in there. That was why Kevin Love was such a phenom- he was already better than the league when he was a freshman.

If you can't Go Cougs... don't go.

by hollyweirdcoug on Mar 6, 2011 5:15 PM PST up reply actions  

I agree technique is crucial

I’m just saying that I think Smith’s issues have much more to do with slow feet caused by his weight. I think lost weight will equate to quicker feet which, combined with just slightly better technique, will result in drastic improvement.

Baynes was a marvel. The improvement he made over his four years is one of the most underrated things I’ve seen in all my years of watching basketball. That guy will forever be one of my favorite basketball players — probably my favorite Bennett-era player.

by Jeff Nusser on Mar 6, 2011 5:22 PM PST up reply actions  

It was remarkable

He was a fumbling machine his first year or two. I couldn’t stand to see him in there. But he turned into a phenomenal post presence. His dunks were awesome and his hook was money.

currently a zag, always a coug

by spencer peaty on Mar 6, 2011 5:31 PM PST up reply actions  

I definitely wouldn't call it a death blow

Most bracket pundits put us between the 2nd and 8th team out of the tournament before the game. Remember that most of these projections assume every at-large candidate from one to two bid leagues win their tourneys – that is, no bid stealers. Realistically a few of these bids are stolen every year, so we might realistically have been five to ten teams out of the tournament. Now, with the loss, most brackets have us between 5th and 10th team out.

So either way, we needed to win a couple games in the Pac-10 tourney, absent a series of absurd events from the other bubble teams. We “might” need to win the Pac-10 tourney, but we might have needed to win it anyways. I’d say the loss dropped us from a 30% chance to a 15% chance. Is that a death blow? Significant at the time, but maybe not significant if we can beat UW and then UCLA in the tourney and play a tough game against Arizona in the championship.

"I mean I was like, okay, there you go, you wanna hit me? There you go, one pitch for you. You don't get it? You have no chance." ~ Felix Hernandez

by johnnycougar on Mar 6, 2011 12:16 PM PST up reply actions  

I disagree

Even if we lose in the finals to Arizona after beating Washington and UCLA we are still not going. This loss yesterday destroyed any hope of an at-large. This is a team with a .500 conference record and can only beat one ranked team at home. I’d love to believe you, but I just can’t

Cougar Basketball 2010-2011: *But Wait... There's Moore!*
SBNation Seattle Contributer -- WSU Daily Evergreen Newspaper columnist -- Twitter: @JeffdCollier

by GoCougs on Mar 6, 2011 12:31 PM PST up reply actions  

As Nuss has pointed out many times, the bubble is horrible this year

Plus if we beat Washington and UCLA in LA, that’s two more top 50 RPI wins on neutral courts to go along with our top 50 victory in Seattle. If I had to trade, I’d trade a loss at home and a neutral win over a win at home and a neutral loss to UCLA.

Don’t forget that to the committee the AP ranking a team has carries exactly no weight. We’ve played a moderately difficult schedule and have done moderately well. Most years we wouldn’t be sniffing the tournament but this year is strange. Conventional measures have little to do with selection – it’s all relative to the other bubble teams.

"I mean I was like, okay, there you go, you wanna hit me? There you go, one pitch for you. You don't get it? You have no chance." ~ Felix Hernandez

by johnnycougar on Mar 6, 2011 12:48 PM PST up reply actions  

Some people still said UCLA was on the bubble

before yesterday’s game. I disagree but if I lived on the east coast I wouldn’t know much about the Bruins.

by KaponoMagic on Mar 6, 2011 1:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, I've heard that

Most projections have them in the 9 to 11 seed range though. They seem pretty safe, even if they had lost on Saturday.

"I mean I was like, okay, there you go, you wanna hit me? There you go, one pitch for you. You don't get it? You have no chance." ~ Felix Hernandez

by johnnycougar on Mar 6, 2011 2:24 PM PST up reply actions  

they are UCLA

they are in. Just like arizona a few years ago when they won 18. Reputation matters to the committee… they don’t admit it but it does. People are actually still calling Mich st. a bubble w/16 wins… talk about the battle cry “well look who we lost to”—

I think the uw is closer to out than they do— if the Cougs beat them they may be in trouble.

If you can't Go Cougs... don't go.

by hollyweirdcoug on Mar 6, 2011 5:00 PM PST up reply actions  

I'd agree here.

Sutra had an interesting take on WSU FB Blog. He said John Wilner wrote that if UW loses to us a third time it might very well be a death blow to their hopes. Whether that’s true or not, getting to the finals would require a win over UW and most likely UCLA. Those are two quality wins. And then I believe they also look at recent performance. We beat UW, USC, and then if we made it to the finals, UW again and UCLA. I don’t think it’s that far fetched with their recent performance.

Attractive, Intelligent, Short Attention Span, Timbers Fan Reader

by Coug999 on Mar 6, 2011 12:42 PM PST up reply actions  

nah, we're tourney title or bust

our RPI is sitting at 73 today. We’re not going to bump it up 12-15 slots by going 2-1 in the tournament.

had we won yesterday, we’d be somewhere from 60-63, meaning it would be a reasonable assumption that we could’ve reached into the high 50s by going 2-1 next week. so yeah, the loss was the junk punch.

Only way left is to win the damn thing.

by BigWood! on Mar 6, 2011 2:40 PM PST up reply actions  

Maybe

I’m not sure RPI fluctuates that much, but whatever. If you read Wilner‘s (and others) recount of the NCAA mock selection experience this year, you may have noticed that the RPI of a particular team rarely came up. The emphasis is on quadrants of RPI for the teams you played (1-50, 51-100, etc). Right now I think we’re 2-6 against the top 50, 4-2 against the next 50. I guess the difference between 6-8 and 7-7 Top 100 could be significant, but we can still get to 8-9 if we beat UW and UCLA but fall to Arizona.

Compare that to someone like Virginia Tech, solidly on the bubble but many brackets have them in. 2-4 against Top 50, 4-1 against next 50. That’s 6-5 against Top 100. If they lose the first game of their tourney, they’ll be 6-6. Oh, and they only have two Top 100 wins away from home. Compare that to our 6-9, 7-8, 7-9, or 8-9 (all remaining possibilities assuming UCLA and Arizona win and we lose the championship game). We played a slightly tougher schedule but it’s more top-heavy. Even if we’re 6-9, that’s still more tough games than Va Tech and the same number of road/neutral wins.

I’m just saying it’s not out of the realm of possibility. Also Va Tech’s lone road Top 100 win was #99 Maryland – easily could drop out of the Top 100. Portland is at #103, so we could easily “get” another Top 100 win if things break right. It’s not inconceivable that we could end up 9-9 against Top 100, around 65 RPI, and with a SOS in the top 80. That looks pretty bubble-worthy to me, and it might be enough.

"I mean I was like, okay, there you go, you wanna hit me? There you go, one pitch for you. You don't get it? You have no chance." ~ Felix Hernandez

by johnnycougar on Mar 6, 2011 3:13 PM PST up reply actions  

I guess I could do a fan post on this, but just for comparison

A bunch of those slightly-better-RPI teams are also on the bubble. Here’s the Top 100 records for a few of them:
Team (RPI, SOS) Record
Gonzaga (68, 102) 5-7
Minnesota (63, 30) 5-10
Colorado (76, 71) 6-9
Clemson (55, 74 ) 8-7
Boston College (42, 18) 7-10

If we end up 8-9 we could be looking better than most if not all of those teams.

"I mean I was like, okay, there you go, you wanna hit me? There you go, one pitch for you. You don't get it? You have no chance." ~ Felix Hernandez

by johnnycougar on Mar 6, 2011 3:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Baylor is worse off than us, I think

RPI 88, SOS 39, 5-9 against Top 100. There’s more but I ran out of steam. I think the point was made.

By the way, all the stats are from realtimerpi.com

"I mean I was like, okay, there you go, you wanna hit me? There you go, one pitch for you. You don't get it? You have no chance." ~ Felix Hernandez

by johnnycougar on Mar 6, 2011 7:03 PM PST up reply actions  

If we can put up a fight like that to UCLA without Klay or Reggie

Think about what we could be doing to you UCLA folk with with them…

by mooreinthefuture on Mar 6, 2011 5:48 PM PST up reply actions  

"Nobody expected the Cougs to hold their own against UCLA..."

I did! You kept saying the sky was falling and I said let’s just see what Bone does to adjust. And we had it.

by 206Coug on Mar 6, 2011 7:54 PM PST reply actions  

Also, I think some good may have come from this loss.

Obviously a win would have been nice. It would have shown that our team is more than one or two players, and that we have more depth than people give us credit for. And a three-game winning streak going into the Pac-10 tourney would have been great momentum. But with this loss, especially a close loss in overtime, Klay and Reggie are going to come back with a vengeance against UW. For them to sit and watch helplessly (particularly Klay) as the team rose up against almost insurmountable odds, only to give it up in the end by four points…that had to hurt. And with either Reggie or Klay in there, is there really any doubt that we would have gotten the W? Klay knows he screwed up, and I hope watching us lose a close one in OT (and lose all hope of an at-large bid) taught him a lesson. He knows we have to win the Pac-10 tourney, so hopefully he really, really brings it now. The loss hurts, but there are some positives to it.

by 206Coug on Mar 6, 2011 8:04 PM PST up reply actions  

"And with either Reggie or Klay in there, is there really any doubt that we would have gotten the W?"

Actually, yes. There is. We actually had an advantage in the first half because of this — UCLA had no clue what they were trying to defend without Klay in the lineup. They sold out on Casto, and he was used basically as a decoy. Then, when UCLA made their halftime adjustments, it was hang-on time.

If Klay plays, does UCLA have a better game plan? Yes. Do the Bruins play harder? Possibly. Is it a different game entirely, and therefore impossible to say what would have happened? Definitely.

Do I like to ask questions? Absolutely!

by Jeff Nusser on Mar 6, 2011 9:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Okay, I'll give you that.

UCLA knew coming in that we’d be without our top scorer and right-hand man, so they probably circled it as a win before they got to Pullman. And they had no idea what to expect from an offense without Klay. However, with either Klay or Reggie in control at the end, I believe we hit the game-winning shot in regulation. And if we don’t, I think we win it in overtime. Of course we’ll never know, but that bad pass/botched inbound combination seems unlikely with Klay or Reggie. Oh well, my point is that this loss should motivate Klay to vindicate his mistake.

by 206Coug on Mar 7, 2011 1:30 AM PST up reply actions  

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