WSU Football Wisdom Of Crowds: Running Backs' Yards Per Carry
by Jeff Nusser on Aug 30, 2011 6:00 PM PDT
in 2011 WSU Football News
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PrintOK, folks. Here's part two.
Before we get going, I'm entirely amazed by the response to the first post in this series. As I write this, more than 50 people -- nearly 20 percent of all voters -- think Jeff Tuel will throw 30 or more touchdowns in 2011. For context of exactly what that means, I posted this list in the comments section:
1. 34 Ryan Leaf, 1997
2. 28 Jason Gesser, 2002
3. 26 Jason Gesser, 2001
26 Alex Brink, 2007
5. 24 Timm Rosenbach, 1988
24 Alex Brink, 2005
7. 21 Ryan Leaf, 1996
21 Matt Kegel, 2003
9. 20 Jack Thompson, 1976
20 Drew Bledsoe, 1992
That's the list of top passing touchdown seasons in WSU history. So, nearly 20 percent of responders think that Jeff Tuel will have one of the two best passing touchdown seasons in the last century or so with an offense that ranked 86th in the nation by Football Outsiders' S&P+ rankings and 96th in yards per play last season.
Interesting.
Next up: Running backs' yards per carry.
The reason I'm stipulating running backs is because I want to separate out the sacks, which have done a big number on the overall yards per carry mark, since college figures sacks into rushing totals. The last three seasons, WSU has posted the following marks:
- 2008: 3.99
- 2009: 3.80
- 2010: 3.60
As an aside, did you have any clue WSU has actually gotten that much worse at running the football via traditional means? Me either. You can see the spreadsheet with the stats here.
Now, it's your turn. The offensive line is supposedly experienced, and there are some speedy weapons back there to go with Logwone Mitz. What do you think the running backs will do this year?
Click on the jump to vote and/or see the results, and tell us how you voted and why.
Here's your poll!
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Why isn't there a double digit option for the poll?
You know, for the 30 TD believers, there should also be a:
H) 10.1 or more!!!
by ConfofChamps on Aug 30, 2011 7:44 PM PDT reply actions 3 recs
4.0-4.19
But for the same reason. Kid is going to bring the average up, there is no doubt in my mind about that. I’m not sure how many carries a game he will get at this point, but if you make a mistake this kid is gone.
by BeastModeCrimson on Aug 30, 2011 11:13 PM PDT up reply actions
3.80-3.99
I think I may have over estimated, because I decided to go back and look at the OSU game, since everyone is determined that we are a “read option” team now. OSU was probably our best game last year and we rushed for 221 yards, but WSU had 61 attempts for a 3.6 YPC. Ouch. OSU had a better YPC at 3.9.
"Left hand, right hand, it doesn’t matter. I’m amphibious." – Charles Shackleford
Over 3.8, under 4.0.
Wulff will dedicate more time to the passing game early this season, opening up a few more holes for the runningbacks, but not great step forward.
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As a nerd, I was more interested in the distribution of votes than the most popular
Not being particularly informed about the difficulty of throwing a given number of TDs in college, I assumed that the distribution of guesses would look something like a Gaussian curve. This was partly because the poll gave options for each whole number rather than a range, except of course for the 30+ option. The distribution did look more or less Gaussian except for that last option.
I bet if the RB poll had options like 3.5, 3.6, 3.7… 4.6, 4.7, the distribution of guesses might look Gaussian again. If so, I’d guess that the “wisdom” of the crowds lies only in people’s natural tendency to guess the middle of a set of options, sort of like how “truth” is often assumed to be gray rather than black or white.
"Ignorance is the parent of fear." ~Melville
"'Truth' is often assumed to be gray rather than black or white."
You are far more fortunate in the people you deal with than I am.
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