The 2013 Pac-12 Tournament is down to four teams, and three are ready to dance, while another is looking to grab a surprise bid. Who will survive to the finals? Find the entire bracket at the Pac-12's official site.
UCLA vs. Arizona, 6 p.m. PT, Pac-12 Networks
The Bruins swept the Wildcats during the conference schedule, and that was key to their league championship. Otherwise, Arizona was better overall against like competition.
Arizona was the best offense in the Pac-12, scoring 1.06 points per possession in conference play. The Bruins were able to sweep the Wildcats by limiting Arizona to 0.95 and 1.02 PPP in each matchup. At the same time, UCLA went well above their 1.01 PPP league average by posting 1.1 and 1.09.
Sometimes teams are just bad matchups for others, and UCLA appears to be that for Arizona. The Bruins are among a select few in the league that isn't at an athletic disadvantage when facing the Wildcats.
One of the primary reasons UCLA has done so well against Arizona has been their ability to limit Wildcat point guard Mark Lyons. The senior Xavier transfer posted offensive ratings of 82 and 73 against the Bruins. Lyons is shooting 8 of 20 against the Bruins with 10 turnovers and zero assists. If the Wildcats are to turn things around, they are going to need more from Lyons.
KenPom predicts a 75-72 Arizona victory with 63 percent confidence. This game should continue the week's trend of exciting finishes. The winner will be the favorite to take home the title on Saturday.
Utah vs. Oregon, 8:30 p.m. PT, ESPN
There's no better time to catch fire than March, and the Utes are doing just that. Utah has rebounded from an awful initial Pac-12 campaign to improve more than any other team in the conference this year to the point where they are a threat to win any game. Jason Washburn and friends are now riding a four-game winning streak and are two more away from an NCAA berth.
One of those four wins came against Oregon less than a week ago. Utah beat the Ducks to prevent them from grabbing a share of the Pac-12 championship to complete a weekend sweep of the Oregon schools.
The Ducks poor offense makes them susceptible to upsets. Oregon was 10th in the league in offensive efficiency, scoring just 98 points for every 100 possessions. They were able to win 12 games in conference play on the back of the second-best defense, allowing just 0.96 points per trip.
That slim difference between offense and defense means the Ducks performed well in the close games, and Coug fans know that better than anyone else.
KenPom predicts a 66-61 Oregon victory with 71 percent confidence. Can Utah pull off yet another upset to get to the title game? Or will Oregon avenge last week's loss?