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What are the Cougs' chances in the NCAA tournament?

Many of you may be curious about the Cougs chances of getting out of the regional tournament this weekend. On one hand, we could look at the other teams in the regional, compare their stats, and decide who matches up well with WSU. On the other, we could cheat and use Boyd's World's ISR to project the chances of advancing through every step of the tournament. For a primer about ISR, check out Boyd's World. In short, the statistic uses winning percentage with strength of schedule and iterative calculates them to come up with a rating for each team.

Below are the chances of each team in the Fayetteville pod. The probabilities from left to right: regional, super regional, semifinals, and champions. For the complete table, go here.


The Cougs have a 1 in 4 chance of making it out of the regionals, according to ISR's projection. This is the 5th best probability of teams not seeded No. 1. They also hold a .1% chance of winning it all. We've got a shot!

Around the Pac-10, No. 3 seeds Oregon and Oregon State both hold higher chances of advancing than WSU (30% and 26.1% respectively). Arizona State is the odds on favorite to win it all with a win probability of 57%. Nobody else is even in double digits. The projection system likes the Pac-10, with all teams at least having a fighting chance of getting out of the regionals.

Consider this an early projection of how the Cougs will fare throughout the tournament. Of course, games are not played on paper, but this is a decent baseline to keep in mind as we begin action on Friday. We'll have more about the Cougs and their opponents throughout the week and full coverage as games kick off on Friday.