The Washington State Cougars could be facing the end of their season and the end of head coach Ken Bone's tenure on Wednesday night (8:30 p.m. PT, Pac-12 Networks). Standing in the way of one more game is the Stanford Cardinal, a team that has had little trouble beating WSU twice this season.
So, what are the odds Washington State knocks off the Cardinal to advance in the Pac-12 Tournament? Ken Pomeroy's laptop pegs them at 16 percent. About 1 out of every 6 times WSU would come away with a win over Stanford. That doesn't seem so bad, right? Certainly reason for hope, as long as you ignore the 45 points by which the Cardinal bested the Cougs in two meetings this season.
But after the UCLA win on Senior Night, who could blame a Coug fan for a feeling a little optimistic? That win and the win over UCLA in 2013 are proof that anything can happen. And yes, the only way Coug fans can have any hope is by saying "hey, anything can happen!"
And what of WSU's chances to win the whole thing? Certainly better than Lloyd Christmas' chances, but don't go clearing your schedule for the NCAA
Play-in First Round games. Pomeroy's log5 predictions give WSU that aforementioned 16 percent chance to advance to the quarterfinals, a two percent chance to reach the semifinals and and a 0.3 percent chance to make the Pac-12 tourney finals and be just one game away from an NCAA auto bid.
WSU's chance of taking the whole thing stands at 0.02 percent. So, if the Pac-12 decided to be weird and hate its players and coaches and everyone and play this tournament 10,000 times, and for some reason all parties involved just went along with it, the Cougs would come away victorious twice. In 10,000 tries. That's not very many times in that many tries, in case you were wondering.
Here's hoping that this is one of the 16 out of every 100 times WSU will beat Stanford on the way to that 1 in 5,000 chance for a WSU NCAA tournament berth.