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How accurate are bowl projections anyway?

Not that accurate, it turns out...

Leach is all set for a sunny bowl game
Leach is all set for a sunny bowl game
Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports

Bowl projections are hard. The bowl selections tend to be made by secretive committees and they can change at a moments notice on the final weekend of the year.

We all want to know where the Cougs are going bowling. If you look on Twitter or read bowl projections you'll see that Washington State is being picked to go anywhere from San Antonio's Alamo Bowl to El Paso's Sun Bowl and everything in between... Rankings speaking, that is... There really isn't much geographically speaking between El Paso and San Antonio...

In order to get a better idea of where the Cougs might end up, we decided to grade how some bowl projections performed last season. We took all the Pac-12 bowl and compared their picks with who actually played in the game.

Alamo Bowl

Who Played In the Game? Kansas State vs. UCLA

Who Did They Pick?

Phil Steele TCU vs. Stanford
ESPN Mark Schlabach K-State vs. UCLA
ESPN Brett McMurphy Oklahoma vs. UCLA
SBNation Jason Kirk K-State vs. UCLA

Holiday Bowl

Who Played In the Game? Nebraska vs. USC

Who Did They Pick?

Phil Steele Nebraska vs. USC
ESPN Mark Schlabach Nebraska vs. USC
ESPN Brett McMurphy Nebraska vs. USC
SBNation Jason Kirk Nebraska vs. USC

Foster Farms Bowl

Who Played In the Game? Maryland vs. Stanford

Who Did They Pick?

Phil Steele Minnesota vs. Oregon State
ESPN Mark Schlabach Iowa vs. Stanford
ESPN Brett McMurphy Iowa vs. Washington
SBNation Jason Kirk Penn State vs. Arizona State

Sun Bowl

Who Played In the Game? Duke vs. ASU

Who Did They Pick?

Phil Steele Louisville vs. Washington
ESPN Mark Schlabach Notre Dame vs. Utah
ESPN Brett McMurphy Duke vs. ASU
SBNation Jason Kirk Duke vs. Arizona

Las Vegas Bowl

Who Played In the Game? Utah vs. Colorado State

Who Did They Pick?

Phil Steele Boise State vs. Arizona
ESPN Mark Schlabach ASU vs. Colorado State
ESPN Brett McMurphy Utah vs. Colorado State
SBNation Jason Kirk Boise State vs. Utah

Cactus Bowl

Who Played In the Game? Washington vs. Oklahoma State

Who Did They Pick?

Phil Steele Oklahoma State vs. ASU
ESPN Mark Schlabach Washington vs. Oklahoma State
ESPN Brett McMurphy Oklahoma State vs. Stanford
SBNation Jason Kirk Texas vs. Washington

So, how'd they do? We'll give half points for one correct team and full points for both.

Phil Steele: 1.5/6 (Projects 2015 WSU to Las Vegas Bowl)

Mark Schlabach: 4/6 (Projects 2015 WSU to Las Vegas Bowl)

Brett McMurphy: 4/6 (Projects 2015 WSU to Las Vegas Bowl)

Jason Kirk: 3.5/6 (Projects 2015 WSU to Sun Bowl)

Even the best only get it right 3 and a half times out of 6. (Note: I'm contractually obligated to call SBNation's own Jason Kirk the best of the best)

Some people are better at the art of projecting bowls then other, but even then it's not a perfect science. As of right now, there aren't really any Pac-12 games like the 2014 Alamo Bowl that everyone is calling. Anything can change right now and we won't know for sure until Sunday.

Don't follow the projections too closely and don't buy those plane tickets just yet... Unless you feel like taking a trip to El Paso during Christmas for no reason at all.


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