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Pac-12 Football odds and picks: The Gamble-Tron, Week Three

Germany v Finland - International Friendly Photo by Lars Baron/Bongarts/Getty Images

Welcome back. We sucked last week. I mean, uhh, I guess we were satisfied with the participation trophy we got for going 5-4 on opening week. (coughing) The fact of the matter is that we weren’t tough enough to pick winners last Saturday. And then, ya know, we started off well, winning four in a row. But then it got tough in the afternoon and evening and, umm, we acted like we were just happy to be there.

To be honest, we have the atmosphere of a bunch of drunks betting $2 at the dog track. (coughing followed by more coughing) I mean, and then there’s the bonus over under. Where the hell did they learn that? The Gamble-Tron never taught them to bet over/unders. And then you have, uhh, I guess it’s just like, well, nowadays in little gambling leagues they don’t even charge a vig anymore.

Uhh, you know, uhh, you know I think that entire thing about how none of the odds-makers even threaten to break kneecaps. (coughs so much a lung appears) I mean anymore in society it’s not whether your bet wins or loses, it’s how many free drinks you can get before you’re 86’d from the casino. You aren’t allowed to ask anymore questions.

Why I’m a genius: You can never be afraid to dive back into the dumpster to look for a smelly line. Ohio State paid that practice off in spades. I am an idiot for not putting more down on them. Had a feeling USC would put things together for at least a week, but man, Max Browne does not look like a Pac-12 quarterback.

As far as UW, they didn’t exactly start off well, and it took some good fortune from teh opponent, which seems to happen often with that team of late, but they stepped on the gas big time and didn’t let up. What’s it like to root for a team like that? Finally, was there any doubt the Holy War (yes, Gus Johnson, that’s what it’s called) would be close? Utah tried to give it away, and BYU did just enough to lose close.

Why I’m an idiot: Everything was looking so good early on! By the end of the night, my results looked much like those of our favorite team. Speaking of them, I should have known better. That line was a huge overreaction to the first week’s games, and I was too stupid to bet the other way. Same goes with the over/under. WSU’s defense isn’t very good, but it isn’t as bad as it was against EWU.

Speaking of defense, if anyone around Lubbock would like to rush the passer or try and cover someone, Kliff Kingsbury would be happy to give you a tryout. Finally, special thanks to San Diego State, UCLA and Oregon for toying with lesser teams just enough to stay within the point spread. No way should Virginia have stayed within 25 of Oregon, and SDSU led 38-21(!!!) I hate this so much.

Last Week: 4-6 / -$250

Season Total: 9-11

Cash Balance: $955

Reader Results:

  • stewak: 4-4 / -$40
  • Ryan Eames: 3-6 / -$1250 (Here’s hoping somebody’s knees are still intact)
  • BothwaysUphill: 5-3 / $170
  • hollyweirdcoug: 5-4 / $60
  • Ickaber: 3-5 / -$250
  • Dr. Coug-A-Lot: 2-6 / -$240
  • cmaddex: 5-2 / $280 (I should deduct points for picking a team that didn’t play)
  • MileHighPharmer: 3-6 / -$360
  • SirBenjaminPK: 4-4 / -$40 (Wish I could give out more $ for your NDSU call)
  • WazzuPope: 4-5 / -$150
  • Navy.Coug: 6-3 / $470 - Winner!

With that, let’s pick some more games!

ASU (-19/-110) at Texas-San Antonio (+19/-110): I don’t know anything about UTSA other than they beat a SWAC team and lost to a terrible Colorado State team. That alone should make ASU a lock. Word is that the ASU plane will stop for fuel in Lubbock, giving it yet another touchdown on Texas Tech. (I’ll be here all week)

The Pick: $110 on ASU

Idaho (+25/-110) at WSU (-25/-110): This line opened at WSU -27.5. The line is now 25. Clearly that’s because of the great performance Idaho turned in at Washington, right? RIGHT?! Ok, no. The line is coming down because WSU isn’t any good. I told myself that I wasn’t taking WSU if I had to lay more than 20. Well, it’s mid-week, and here I am taking WSU. I think they rally and play their best game of the year. It doesn’t hurt that Idaho is the worst team they’ll face until Tyler Bruggman shows up and beats them next fall.

The Pick: $110 on WSU

Colorado (+20.5/-115) at Michigan (-20.5/-105): Ok, this is the most stunning line of the week. Granted, Michigan hasn’t played anybody. But they’ve also murdered those nobodies. Colorado has also boatraced their two opponents, but come on, do we really think that Colorado is going to hang in this game? We’ll answer that for you. No.

The Pick: $220 on Big Blue

Oregon (+3/-110) at Nebraska (-3/-110): How did we get this far without mentioning what a great weekend of football this is? Lots of great matchups both in the conference and around the nation. In terms of intrigue, this game is way up there. Is Nebraska any good? Is Oregon any good? What happens when Oregon hippie meets Nebraska farmer?

We don’t want to find out, just like I don’t want to have to pick this game. But pick it we must. We haven’t seen hardly any of either team, but if there’s one thing we know from studying history, Mike Riley is Andy Dufresne and Oregon is the sisters.

The Pick: $110 on Oregon

USC (+9.5/-110) at Stanford (-9.5/-110): We haven’t seen Stanford in a while. Well, I haven’t seen them at all since I was in bed before the third quarter began two Fridays ago. We’ve seen a lot of USC, and the reviews are mixed. Horrifically bad against Alabama, not bad against an outmatched opponent in Utah State.

This is a battle of highly-inexperienced quarterbacks, with three starts between them. I’ve seen enough of Max Browne to know that he isn’t the answer for the Trojans. Even though my gut tells me that 9.5 is too many points, I just can’t trust USC against a good team.

The Pick: $55 on Stanford

UCLA (-3.5/-110) at BYU (+3.5/-110): Even though they almost won at Utah last weekend, I haven’t been impressed with BYU at all. Utah fumbled the ball six(!!!) times, losing three. Utah’s quarterback also threw three interceptions, AND BYU STILL DIDN’T WIN. UCLA is nothing special, but they’re good enough to beat BYU .

The Pick: $110 on UCLA

Utah (-13/-110) at San Jose State (+13/-110): Talk about having no idea where to go. A quick look at the schedule reveals that San Jose State beat Portland State 66-35 last weekend (sigh). Anyway, as mentioned above, Utah isn’t very impressive. They also lost Kyle Fitts for the season. When in doubt, take the points.

The Pick: $55 on THIS IS SPARTA

Texas (-8/-110) at Cal (+8/-110): Speaking of contrasting cultures. The hat/boot/brisket crowd from Texas should have quite the experience in vegan, gluten-free, everybody run to your safe space Berkeley. It’s pretty well established that the Cal defense will spend the season making opposing offenses look really, really good. This is especially evident in the run game. Well, Texas has a couple guys who can really run the ball.

If this game were being played right after Texas’ emotional win over Notre Dame, I’d be tempted to take the points. But it’s been a couple weeks, which will give Texas time to re-focus and look for revenge after the kicking gods stole this one from them a year ago.

The Pick: $110 on the Longhorns

Hawaii (+24.5/-110) at Arizona (-24.5/-110): Let’s face it. Arizona shouldn’t be a 24-point favorite over anybody after struggling mightily with SWAC bottom-feeder Grambling. Arizona was much better against BYU, but still lost. Even though Anu Solomon still stinks, I think Arizona finally puts it all together. The biggest reason for that? Hawaii may be the worst team in FBS.

The Pick: $110 on Arizona

Temple (+8.5/-110) at Penn State (-8.5/-110): What a difference a year makes. Temple absolutely manhandled Penn State last season. This season? While Penn State lost to Pitt last week, their offense came alive. Meanwhile, Temple got beat badly by Army in the opener. Temple is a shadow of its 2015 self. Penn State isn’t very good, but they should be good enough in a revenge spot to cover.

The Pick: $110 on the Nittaly Lions