Welcome to the home stretch. The Cougs bounced back in a big way last weekend. The Gamble-Tron...didn’t. The more we find out about these teams, the less we seem to know. When you throw in a “heart over head” situation that ended about like you would think, it all added up to a sort-of-profitable-yet-totally-unsatisfying Saturday.
But let’s not think about what happened last week. Let’s look ahead, as any gambler, real or pretend would do. Wait a minute, let’s not do that. No, let’s undergo our weekly exercise of minor ego-stroking followed by massive self-flagellation.
Why I’m a genius: Uh, go Bruins? I guess? That was the beginning and end of it for me and the Pac-12. I did hang in there with Alabama’s two big teams, who rightfully dispatched of two inferior squads. Also, Bert (not a typo) Bielema has to get fired soon, yes? Got kinda lucky with UCF. No, I will not give the money back. It’s often said that playing the “under” is boring. Ain’t no such thing as boring when you collect at the window.
Why I’m an idiot: Well I keep trying to pick Pac-12 games, which is clearly not working out for me. 1-4 (???!!!) last week. Shouldn’t I know this conference better than any other? Shouldn’t I know that USC has no chance going against a strong rushing attack with a wafer-thin d-line? Shouldn’t I be wise to the fact that Utah shouldn’t give 10 points to anyone?
Shouldn’t I have realized that a Colorado team who barely escaped Corvallis alive probably wouldn’t be very competitive in another road game against a superior team? Again, yes, I should have. Again, I’m an idiot.
And my god, Texas Tech. What in the Sam Hell happened to you? 41 rushing attempts!!?? Didn’t you used to be Kliff by god Kingsbury? They were never in the game. At home. Against Iowa State. Iowa. State. What an embarrassment.
The guns definitely are not up!
Last Week: 5-5
Season Total: 42-37-2
Cash Balance: $440
Stanford (-21/-110) at OSU (+21/-110): First time in a long time that we’ve had some Pac-12 Thursday night action. Well, when possibly the best team in the conference playing unquestionably the worst team, I don’t know whether you can call it “action.” Lots of home dogs around the conference this week. Let’s lay three touchdowns and say our prayers.
The Pick: $110 on Stanford
Cal (+3/-110) at Colorado (-3/-110): Another weird line. In the last two weeks, the underdog has beaten WSU by 34, while the favorite lost to WSU by 28. Sports! I really want to take Cal here, but how many times have we seen a team play terribly one week, then look awesome the next? Probably not very many times, but work with me.
The Pick: $110 on Colorado
USC (-3/-110) at ASU (+3/-110): /looks at how these teams have played the last two weeks and...?????????????? How on earth is USC favored? Has anyone been watching these two teams? This is “dead fish left in the back of a hot car for a month” stinky. I just looked at USC’s injury report. Give me those points. (this totally smells like a “Vegas knows something” situation, but I just can’t)
The Pick: $110 on ASU
Utah (-3.5/-110) at Oregon (+3.5/-110): Three games, three home dogs. What would this line be if Utah hadn’t crapped the bed at home last weekend? Probably close to a touchdown. That’s how bad Oregon has been. Justin Herbert is practicing again, but it’s only been four weeks since he broke his collarbone. He ain’t playing this weekend. Who is playing? Darren Carrington in total revenge mode.
The Pick: $110 on Utah
UCLA (+17/-110) at Washington (-17/-110): Yuck. UW coming off a bye against a banged-up and defenseless UCLA team. UW has its share of injuries, particularly in the secondary. Still haven’t hit on UW this year, and we’re nine weeks deep. The only real hope is for a backdoor cover. Come on, Bruins! You can do it!
The Pick: $110 on UCLA
WSU (-3/-110) at Arizona (+3/-110): Having seen Khalil Tate set three straight teams on fire, I’m pretty surprised the line hasn’t moved toward the Wildcats. I’ve been dreading this game ever since Tate exploded on the scene, mostly because WSU fans have been counting on this game as a W since the preseason. I’ve been leaning Arizona for a while, but goddmanit, the Cougar offense has to carry the defense at some point, don’t they? DON’T THEY?!
The Pick: $110 on WSU
Vanderbilt (+6.5/-110) at South Carolina (-6.5/-110): Vandy started off hot and has since fallen off a cliff. The Gamecocks are the only team this season to have beaten NC State. This one shouldn’t be within 10, let alone a touchdown.
The Pick: $220 on South Cackalacky
Georgia Tech (+15.5/-110) at Clemson (-15.5/-110): Clemson hasn’t exactly been blowing the doors off the opponent lately, and the Yellow Jackets are good enough that they should have won at unbeaten Miami a couple weeks ago. Paul Johnson should find a way to keep this within two touchdowns.
The Pick: $110 on the Ramblin’ Wreck
Since this is out a little sooner than normal, I haven’t had a chance to plagiarize off of Tom Fornelli. I’ll throw a pick or two out on Twitter at some point, then tell you all how they all went badly next week.