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Pac-12 Football odds and picks: The Gamble-Tron, Week 11

Tire fire indeed.

Huge Fire At Recycling Plant In Sherburn-in-Elmet Photo by Ian Forsyth/Getty Images

Welcome back. I’ve been taking part in this little futility exercise for nearly four full seasons now. Every week I make these picks. Every week I pay close attention to the results. Every week I get pissed off even though this is all for “fun” and I don’t lose any actual money. “What about your pride?” you might say. Pride left the station many moons ago.

Last week’s performance was probably the worst of all time. So bad that I considered taking my own bye week. Ok, I didn’t actually do that, but sometimes I really feel like I should take one. But that would be a disservice to the three of you who read this, and I feel like I owe it to you folks. So we move forward, in search of big winners. Ok, first we are in search of markers, but then we’ll try for the big winners.

Why I’m a genius: /thinks. /thinks some more. Moving right along...

Why I’m an idiot: First off, I blame the coin. I was in desperate need of a turnaround, and I took the easy way out. Five of six flips came up for the road team, so of course the home teams covered every spread. I liked Utah. I liked ASU. I loved Cal. Did I take them? No, why would I do that?

Anyway, that’s not even the worst part. For most of the season, I’ve been doing pretty well in non-Pac-12 games. How’d last week go? Not good, Bob! Really bad, as a matter of fact! Lost $550 on those bets alone. Can it get worse? You already know the answer.

This should have been really, really good. Notre Dame led 34-10 in the second half, and Wake Forest was helpless. So of course Wake Forest scored two meaningless late touchdown and hit the backdoor cover. Man, we probably should just quit there, right? That’s what any smart person would do.

So I think you know what we did. We decided to go two fists in. The only decision was to choose between San Diego St and Alabama.

We threw our cash behind Nick Saban. So of course the Aztecs covered easily. Did Alabama? No. No they didn’t. Thank heavens for deficit spending, because that’s where we’re headed. There’s no chance we’re gonna chase this week. Not at all. No way. Never. Probably.

Last Week: 4-11-1

Season Total: 51-53-5

Cash Balance: -1,890 Oof

Washington (-6/-110) at Stanford (+6/-110): Been a while since Stanford was this big of a home underdog. This line opened at 8.5 and has fallen by nearly a field goal because, uh, well if anyone knows, please tell me because I have no clue. The easier play here seems to be the Under 50, because ain’t no way Stanford is scoring more than 20, and I doubt UW gets to 30.

The Pick: $110 Washington on and another $220 on the Under

WSU (1/-110) at Utah (+1/-110): I hate this game. Hate hate hate it. WSU is better than Utah. Of course, WSU is better than Cal, too, but sometimes that doesn’t matter. What causes me to lean toward the Utes is the fact that WSU has played three road games. In their last two, they’ve played far below their capability. I don’t know what’s in store for Saturday, but home teams have fared quite well this season.

The Pick: $110 on Utah

USC (-13.5/-110) at Colorado (+13.5/-110): USC appears to have righted the ship somewhat. Colorado’s ship, in the words of the great warrior-poet Micheal Ray Richardson, be sinkin’. USC is getting healthier, and Colorado is lousy. That said, I won’t be surprised one bit if this is a tight game into the fourth quarter. I want to believe USC will salt it away with a late TD.

The Pick: $110 on USC

ASU (+2.5/-110) at UCLA (-2.5/-110): Ok, this is totally bizarre. UCLA is terrible. They might be the worst team in the conference, non-Beaver category. ASU, at least on paper, is a good bit better. UCLA has one of the worst run defenses in college football history, and college football is pretty old! If Jim Mora has any sense at all, he’ll shut down Josh Rosen and let the young man heal up for his pro career. In other words, Rosen will probably play.

The Pick: $110 on team fork

OSU (+22/-110) at Arizona (-22/-110): OSU is going back on the road for the second straight week. They may have put up a fight against Stanford at home, and they may put up a fight here, but I don’t see any way they can keep up with Khalil Tate, who is back on the plastic surface.

The Pick: $330 on Arizona

Arkansas (+17/-110) at LSU (-17/-110): Ok, I don’t expect LSU to be humming since they’re coming off that emotional Alabama game. Still, fading Arkansas has been the wise play for most of this season.

The Pick: $220 on LSU

San Jose State (+19/-110) at Nevada (-19/-110): It’s been way too long since we went dumpster diving. Back in we go!

The Pick: $220 on the Wolfpack