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Pac-12 Football odds and picks: The Gamble-Tron, Week Four

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Not a bad week three!

17th Annual Critics' Choice Movie Awards - Show Photo by Christopher Polk/Getty Images for VH1

Welcome back. What the heck is Bob Dylan doing back here? Well, you’ll probably figure it out once you see last week’s record. Old Mr. Zimmerman will be appearing in this space as long as we keep this up. In other words, this will almost certainly be Bob’s last appearance in this space.

Mr. Dylan aside, we here at Gamble-Tron headquarters would seemingly be better off if we didn’t bother with the Pac-12, and exclusively looked elsewhere to make our selections. That’s not really the point, though, so onward we go.

Why I’m a genius: I mean, I knew UTEP was bad, but yowza, they are REALLY bad. That Memphis-UCLA game was quite the thriller, but we were all over the home team and it paid off. It didn’t have anything to do with the early start (it was 7-7 after a quarter and 27-24 at halftime). It had a lot to do with UCLA’s defense being unable to stop Anthony Miller. The Cougs were looking a bit iffy for a stretch, but OSU is OSU.

Man, Tom Herman was this close to keeping his underdog streak alive, and with a backup QB no less. You probably didn’t know (and I never would have if I hadn’t been on this one) but Northwestern won 49-7. For you History majors out there, that’s a total of 56 points. The over/under was 57. No, YOU were watching the end of that game as if your eyeballs were on the line. Finally, we’re 1-for-1 on money line upsets. MORE COWBELL!

Why I’m an idiot: Well, for one thing, I was almost certain the wrong team was favored in the Purdue game, but I didn’t pull the trigger on the money line. Moron. Flavor-of-the-week Josh Allen completely flopped at Iowa. So of course I thought he’d be fine against Oregon. He was not fine. Not even close.

The signs were all there for a Stanford loss and I chose to ignore them. That...was dumb. I had a feeling Cal wasn’t that bad. I didn’t realize how bad Ole Miss is. Finally, Washington should have won by 49. They won by 32. Just when I think they can’t make me hate them anymore...

Last Week: 8-4-1

Season Total: 18-13-2

Cash Balance: $420

Utah (-3.5/-110) at Arizona (+3.5/-110): A first glance at this line tells me that something seems off. Utah has looked pretty impressive this year, albeit against a schedule comprised of hot garbage. When I saw this matchup, I figured Utah would be favored by at least six. A little digging reveals that while RichRod’s Pac-12 record is well below .500, his record against Utah is 4-1. This line stinks. Stinks I say!

The Pick: $110 on Arizona

USC (-16.5/-110) at Cal (+16.5/-110): Cal has arguably the best resumé in the Pac-12, what with wins over two Power Five teams. Granted, those two teams aren’t anything special, but we didn’t think Cal would be either! The new staff has, at least so far, breathed life into the Bears, especially on defense. USC in general, and Sam Darnold in particular, is all over the map. That Stanford win isn’t looking so great now. Still, Cal should crash back to reality Saturday.

The Pick: $110 on USC

Nevada (+28/-110) at WSU (-28/-110): Might be the last time I pick the Cougs for a long time. Winter is coming.

The Pick: $110 on WSU

Washington (-10.5/-110) at Colorado (+10.5/-110): UW is finally playing a team that can fog a mirror. It only took a month. Colorado looked great against CSU, and not so great against Northern Colorado. To me, they’re easily the bigger mystery here. Tons of skill talent, but questions everywhere along the lines. Man, conference play is a fickle mistress.

The Pick: $110 on Colorado

Oregon (-15/-110) at ASU (+15/-110): Oregon has looked great, for about a half per game. ASU has looked terrible, for about 3.75 quarters per game. My only reason for pause here is Oregon going back on the road after playing at altitude last Saturday. Seems like too many points, even if ASU is terrible and Oregon is decent.

The Pick: $110 on ASU

UCLA (+7.5/-110) at Stanford (-7.5/-110): A clash between two teams who both lost to Group of Five teams last weekend. Feel the excitement! I had no idea that UCLA hadn’t won this game since Rick Neuheisel’s first season. That was a while ago. As one of the guys on the Podcast of Champions kind of said (he mis-worded it) this is a battle of the resistable force versus the moveable object. I can’t in good conscience lay more than a touchdown in a game that matches Josh Rosen against whoever Stanford’s terrible quarterback is.

The Pick: $110 on UCLA

Temple (+19.5/-110) at South Florida (-19.5/-110): Temple got murdered by Notre Dame and squeaked by UMass. Neither of those teams has anybody as good as Quinton Flowers.

The Pick: $220 on USF

EDIT: As God is my witness, I wrote this Wednesday night, but life got in the way (kid’s baseball practice) and I didn’t have time to publish before the game started. It’s currently 20-7 USF and I’m keeping it in!

West Virginia (-21/-110) at Kansas (+21/-110): Laying huge points again. What could go wrong?! This game should be ugly, in a good way. Well, unless you’re Peyton Bender’s dad.

The Pick: $110 on West Virginia

Rutgers (+12/-110) at Nebraska (-12/-110): Lots of turmoil in Lincoln. Lots of awful quarterback play, too. I think the Huskers rally and bury a bad team.

The Pick: $110 on Nebraska

Alabama (-18.5/-110) at Vanderbilt (+18.5/-110): Vandy is riding high after that win over Kansas State. Alabama is a meat grinder, and Vandy hasn’t seen anything like what they’re about to see.

The Pick: $220 on the Tide.