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Pac-12 Football Odds and Picks: The Gamble-Tron, Week 11

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Go Aggies!

NCAA Football: Utah State at Wyoming Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome back. Much like writing about the team following a win, writing this column is much more fun after a winning week. For the first time in what seems like forever, we finished a few games above .500. Despite that, we had to stage a serious rally in the late night/early morning hours to end the week in the black. Our two big bets went the way of sweet dreams and flying machines, and things were looking grim.

Enter my new possibly-favorite-ok-maybe-not-but-I’m-still-in-love-with-them team, ladies and gentlemen, let’s hear it one more time for the Aggies of Utah State! Not only have they given us one of the greatest linebackers in NFL history (Bobby Wagner), they are a desperate gambler’s dream. When there’s a game going on in Hawaii, there’s always a chance to redeem a day that would otherwise end in the crapper. That day was last Saturday, and my Aggies made everything better.

Why I’m a genius: 5-0 ATS on the Pac-12 Saturday picks! (please ignore the over/unders behind the curtain). The USC game looked great, then looked tenuous, then we needed a college kicker to come through, and he did! We’ve talked at length about Cal weirdness, and seeing as how WSU never led by more than six, it was a very safe bet in retrospect. The Stanford game looked like the opposite of a safe bet early on, but then UW went UW and it got close. Unfortunately, David Shaw’s IQ continues to decrease by the week, and he is costing his team realistic chances to win.

Oregon covered, sure, but they certainly didn’t make it look that easy, needing lots of UCLA special teams buffoonery to cruise home. In case you didn’t know, the worst special teams unit in the conference is coached by Roy Manning. Something tells me there aren’t many hype videos this season. The ASU game started great, then it looked like it would go horribly awry, but Tyler Huntley went down and that was that.

I want to think it was genius for riding the Cyclones to another win, but it was actually really stupid to not put more action on that game. Totally obvious bet. What’s that old song about mama telling you to shop around? That’s what we did with Texas A&M, and we were able to find an extra half-a-point that was the difference between a win and a dumb push. LOVE THAT HOOK.

We’ll include all of the Twitter picks here since they went from terrible to good to gambling is the best! First, there was the idiot portion.

Yeah, so Mississippi State won that game by like 154 points. It got a little better, though.

Once again, my only regret is not putting more juice down on such an obvious call. But wait, there’s more! We made this one out of pure desperation, after two big bets in the column went down faster than the French along the Maginot Line.

We’ve seen Utah State bludgeoning opponents for a while now, so it made sense to go all in when they were playing an inferior opponent. The Aggies saved the weekend, right after the Cougs saved the day.

Why I’m an idiot: I just can not figure out the weeknight games. Colorado could very well have covered that spread, but I’m pretty sure I haven’t won one Thursday or Friday Pac-12 game. Those two over/unders probably should have cashed. Stanford caused me to lose due to desperation, and USC-OSU came within two points of the total. Ifs, buts and whatnot. Revisiting that Louisiana Tech pick, that may go down as one of the worst calls in Gamble-Tron history, which is really saying something.

I really thought Ohio State would make a statement against a bad Nebraska team. Well, I guess they did make a statement. “We’re not very good” was not the statement I was hoping for. Man, did I ever fall hard for Houston. I’m talking Lloyd Christmas-for-Mary Swanson hard. How did that end? With me running off the end of an empty jetway.

Last Week: 9-6 / $570

Season Total: 74-64-6

Cash Balance: $9,950

Reader Results:

  • stewak: 6-1 / $490
  • Keith_Clark_: 3-3 / -$30
  • wsubrady27: 4-5-1 / -$150
  • transporting: 0-1 / - whatever was on the Oregon game
  • ginandthompson: 3-4 / -$150
  • 425CougFan: 4-7-1 / -$170
  • ThaiCoug: 3-5 / -$250
  • cougman the II: 5-6-1 / -$160
  • BothwaysUphill: 3-5 / -$250

Oregon (+4.5/-110) at Utah (-4.5/-110): Man, the odds-makers must really love Utah. Giving them more than a field goal despite missing Tyler Huntley? That seems pretty generous. Of course, that’s also a pretty damning indictment of Oregon, who hasn’t been good for a while now. I know Justin Herbert hasn’t been good in a month, but I trust him a lot more than I trust whoever Utah trots out there.

The Pick: $110 on Oregon

WSU (-5.5/-110) at Colorado (+5.5/-110): I really really really wish I had some clarity on the iffy status of Laviska Shenault. I do know that turf toe is an injury that lingers forever, and has a major impact on skill players. What else do I know? I know that Mike McIntyre’s son suffered his second concussion of the season last week, yet McIntyre won’t rule him out. I mean...really? WSU should score a lot. I think Colorado will get its share of points, too, but the Cougars are playing much better right now.

The Pick: $110 on WSU

OSU (+24/-110) at Stanford (-24/-110): This game makes me feel a lot like the Stanford line at Washington made me feel. Can you envision Stanford beating anyone by 24 at this point? I mean, even the worst team in the conference? Bryce Love is still banged up, and JJ Arcega-Whiteside isn’t playing. Once again, yes, I know how truly terrible the Beavers are, but I think they can score just enough to keep this within three touchdown. Congrats?

The Pick: $110 on OSU

Cal (+5.5/-110) at USC (-5.5/-110): Purely a “principle” play here. Cal is on the road for the second straight week, following a tough loss in Pullman. USC is still a tough out at home, especially now that J.T. Daniels is back. I think the Cal offense will have a very tough time scoring.

The Pick: $110 on USC and $110 on Under 48.5

UCLA (+12.5/-110) at ASU (-12.5/-110): It’s the second week in November and Arizona State has the opportunity to control its future in the Pac-12 South. If that isn’t a stinging indictment of the quality of play in that division, I have no idea what is. If I had my choice, I’d put 5-7 UCLA in the title game. Unfortunately, that ain’t happening. ASU may be headed off a cliff, but right now, Herm and Louise are just enjoying the ride, top down and not a care in the world.

The Pick: $110 on ASU

San Jose State (+30.5/-110) at Utah State (-30.5/-110): As an honorary Aggie, I have to stick with my new favorite team until they throw me off the bandwagon. Please don’t throw me off the bandwagon, Aggies. I’m your most loyalest fan.

The Pick: $220 on my Aggies

Auburn (+14/-110) at Georgia (-14/-110): Auburn is bad. Georgia is really good. Georgia is at home, and is almost certainly looking for payback. They should get it.

The Pick: $220 on UGa and $110 on Under 52.5

Northwestern (+10.5/-110) at Iowa (-10.5/-110): I know Northwestern isn’t very good, but they’re two games clear of Iowa, their only real threat in the Big Ten West. Speaking of the Big Ten West, we could get quite the series of pillow fights if we matched those teams against the Pac-12 South. Anyway, Northwestern is really good at mucking things up, and Iowa is right there with them.

The Pick: $110 on Northwestern

TCU (+11.5/-110) at West Virginia (-11.5/-110): Yeah, I know the Mountaineers had an emotional road win last week, but TCU is borderline terrible and this line has come way down. Time to pounce.

The Pick: $110 on the Holgo Hair

More dumb Twitter picks likely to follow. Happy Gambling.