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Bovada likes to sometimes send us betting odds and ends via email, and today they passed us a whole bunch of bowl season props. While wagering is generally the purview of the esteemed PJ Kendall, I thought I’d throw some of these out here for your thoughts.
Two questions for you:
- Which of these bets do you like, in general?
- Which of these bets do you like the Cougars to win for you by hitting the over?
I’ll leave some thoughts as we go.
Bowl Statistical Props
2018-2019 Bowl Season - Highest Total Passing Touchdowns in a Bowl Game
Over 5.5 -145 (20/29)
Under 5.5 +105 (21/20)
**Note: The highest number of TD passes last year was 5 by Khalil Tate.
OK, a bet right up the Cougs’ alley, right off the bat. I’m not sure I like them to win this one for me, though; Gardner Minshew II has only exceeded five TDs once this year, in that 69-point hydrogen bombing of Arizona. And we all know that Iowa State’s defense is formidable.
I don’t think I like the over on this one in general. Many of the prime candidates to do it in pass-happy offenses are facing teams that should hold their totals down: Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins against Washington; Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray against Alabama; Houston’s D’Eriq King won’t play, but he would have faced Army, anyway.
Will Grier, might have been a solid bet against Syracuse (the over/under is 68.5), but he’s not playing. The best bet might actually be the guy who will be facing off against Murray — Heisman Trophy runner up Tua Tagovailoa, given the Sooners’ awful defense.
Still, I like the under here.
2018-2019 Bowl Season - Highest Total Passing Yards in a Bowl Game
Over/Under 529.5
**Note: The highest single passing game last year was 499 by Nick Starkel of Texas A&M.
See the previous analysis. Minshew didn’t top 500 yards all season. I like the under here, too.
2018-2019 Bowl Season - Highest Total Receiving Yards in a Bowl Game
Over/Under 252.5
**Note: The highest single receiving game last year was 221 by Cedrick Wilson of Boise State.
It almost certainly won’t be a WSU receiver who does this, but since we’ve gone under consecutive times, let’s go over on this one.
2018-2019 Bowl Season - Highest Total Rushing Yards in a Bowl Game
Over/Under 254.5
**Note: The highest single rushing game last year was 221 yards by Rashaad Penny.
Watch out for Memphis’ Darrell Henderson to hit the over ... if he plays. Give me the under.
Bowl Game Props
2018-2019 Bowl Season - Most Points Scored by 1 Team in a Bowl Game
Over/Under 61.5
**Note: The highest point total last year was 55 by Wake Forest.
Again, hard to imagine the Cougs pulling this one off against Iowa State. But someone’s going to do it. I’ll take the over.
2018-2019 Bowl Season - Largest Margin Of Victory in a Bowl Game
Over/Under 43.5
**Note: The largest margin of victory last year was 47 by Florida Atlantic over Akron.
Again, hard to imagine the Cougs pulling this one off against Iowa State. But someone’s going to do it. I’ll take the over.
2018-2019 Bowl Season – Total Bowl Games that go to Overtime
Over/Under 2.5
**Note: Last season, three bowl games went to Overtime.
I’ll take the over — why would you want to root for less excitement?
2018-2019 Bowl Season - Will there be Double Overtime in a Bowl Game?
Yes +110 (11/10)
No -150 (2/3)
**Note: There was one game last bowl season that went to Double Overtime, The Rose Bowl with Georgia beating Oklahoma 54-48.
Well if we’re going over on the previous one, gotta go YES here! Better value, anyway.
2018-2019 Bowl Season - Will there be Triple Overtime in a Bowl Game?
Yes +350 (7/2)
No -600 (1/6)
**Note: There were no games that went to Triple Overtime last bowl season.
I think the answer is probably no, but at minus-600 ... hard pass.
2018-2019 Bowl Season - Will there be a Shutout in a Bowl Game?
Yes +150 (3/2)
No -200 (1/2)
**Note: There was one shutout last bowl season. The Dollar General Bowl, Appalachian State beating Toledo 34-0.
Yes.
Conference Bowl Props
2018-2019 Bowl Season - Total Bowl Wins ACC
Over/Under 4.5
**CFP Championship game does not count towards number.
**Note: The ACC was 4-6 in Bowl games last year.
2018-2019 Bowl Season - Total Bowl Wins Big 12
Over/Under 2.5
**CFP Championship game does not count towards number.
**Note: The Big 12 was 5-3 in Bowl games last year.
2018-2019 Bowl Season - Total Bowl Wins Big Ten
Over/Under 4.5
**Note: The Big Ten was 7-1 in Bowl games last year. The only loss was Michigan to South Carolina in the Outback Bowl, 26-19.
2018-2019 Bowl Season - Total Bowl Wins Pac 12
Over/Under 3.5
**Note: The Pac 12 was 1-8 in Bowl games last year. The only win was Utah over West Virginia in the Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl, 30-14.
The Pac-12 put seven teams into bowl games. It’s hard to see it going as badly as it did last year; but still ... this is the Pac-12. Washington and Arizona State are underdogs; WSU and Oregon are modest favorites; Cal is a pick ‘em; and Stanford and Utah are each roughly touchdown favorites.
That would seem to indicate four wins are within reach. But S&P+ predicts Oregon to lose outright as a favorite, as well as predicting UW and ASU to lose. WSU, Utah and Stanford are each predicted to win by a TD or more. Cal is a coin flip.
This is one where the number is right where you imagine it should be. But since this is the Pac-12, give me the under.
2018-2019 Bowl Season - Total Bowl Wins SEC
Over/Under 7.5
**CFP Championship game does not count towards number.
**Note: The SEC was 4-5 in Bowl games last year, not counting the CFP Championship game.
Time for your thoughts!