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Pac-12 Football Odds and Picks: The Gamble-Tron, Week Four

Big bucks, big bucks, no whammies! Well, almost.

Drew Bledsoe

Welcome back to what has suddenly become one of the happiest places on earth! I don’t know about you, but here at Gamble-Tron HQ we are popping champagne and eating the finest meats and cheeses throughout the land. Why are we on such a high? It certainly isn’t because we still don’t have the internet. No, IT’S BECAUSE WE WENT 11-2 IN THIS SPACE LAST WEEK THAT’S RIGHT I SAID 11-2 NOBODY CAN EVER TAKE THIS AWAY I LOVE YOU ALL.

When I woke up Sunday morning, went to my score app, and started doing the mental math, I must have counted and recounted 10 times. But enough about that…eff that let’s talk about this some more. I’m sure there have been a couple weeks that approached this gold mine, but I am also sure we’ve never spit out 11 winners in one week. 11 losers? Now that is far more likely, both in the past and again in the future. After all, there’s no way a week like that can happen again. But I’ll be damned if we ain’t gonna try and pull it off.

Why I’m a genius: Hoo boy, are there enough words on the internet? Let’s find out. Regarding OSU, I wrote “I want to take Nevada, but this feels like a George Costanza situation.” The first three quarters suggested my initial instinct was correct, but that last quarter, oh boy that last quarter was Costanza in full effect. When I tell you to always bet on brisket I mean always always always do that, and then eat it. There was no way Utah’s offense was good enough to put the necessary amount of points on the board. Couple that with their amazingly boneheadedness, and voila, a double winner. That total should never have sniffed 40, and there it was north of 47. Easy. Damn. Money.

I actually thought I was making a mistake with Fresno. There’s no way UCLA could be that bad, right? Oh my God wrong wrong wrong. A-S-U = Dead. Cat. Bounce. I will keep screaming that until someone listens. Stunningly, the experts weren’t singing Herm’s praises this week like they were after ASU beat Sparty. The only reason they were as close as they were is due to SDSU’s stunning incompetence near the end of the game. Boston College, as I told you in my season totals post, is a damn good team. Take notice.

Georgia Southern was looking like a comfort cruise into cover town, until Clemson decided to tack on a couple late scores. No matter. The Tigers just wanted to get out of that game with the defense’s knees intact. I don’t know if New Mexico is any good. What do I know? I know that New Mexico State is putrid. How do I know that? Wyoming has looked positively awful ever since they murdered the Aggies in Week Zero. That was a bet so nice I made it twice!

You won’t believe this, but Notre Dame is vastly overrated. They barely escaped Ball State, so I was supposed to lay more than two touchdowns against a team better than Ball State? Yeah. No. The Boise State-Okie State Over was probably the shakiest of these winners, especially after watching the first half. Turns out the big benefactor in this total being exceeded was…Boise’s punter? Hey, we’ll take it any way we can get it.

Why I’m an idiot: BECAUSE I DIDN’T BET MORE GAMES THAT’S ALL I CAN COME UP WITH. Ok, maybe not. Holy smokes, did Oregon look positively ordinary against San Jose State. And here I figured the Ducks would run all over a team playing its second straight roadie against a Pac-12 foe. Grape job, Oregon. I also figured that Michigan was one of those teams that is great at beating up weaklings, but can’t hang with really good ones. So of course, after murdering Western Michigan, they screw around with an SMU team that couldn’t stay within three TDs of North Texas.

Possibly in the ‘idiot’ category but whatevs...

It did hurt my overall winning percentage for the week. I let the last-second rush get to my head, but scared money don’t make money, and a 6-5 record makes enough to buy a couple bombers of really good beer! And I am particularly proud of that Oklahoma State call. Once the line shifted to make Boise State the favorite, I’d have been insane to not fade the public.

Oh, and you may notice that I had New Mexico twice. Well, If I could get them laying 4.5, you can bet your ass I’ll take them again at 3. Cashed both!

Last week: 17-7

Season Total: 28-21-1

Cash Balance: $8,390

Reader Results:

  • stewak: 3-5 / -$190
  • .:R: 4-7 / -$370
  • Keith_Clark_: 4-2 / $180
  • cougbud (mascots-only hurts my brain): 5-7 / -$270
  • BothwaysUphill: 4-5 / -$150
  • MagicCoug: 0-1 / -$1,320 (shoulda leapt from the Herm Express)
  • ThaiCoug: 6-6 (I think?) / -$60
  • cmaddex: 1-5 / -$900
  • MyHopesareAsinine: 4-4 / -$50
  • Hockeycoug: 0-1 / -$550 (Don’t let that speed bump stop you from playing!)

WSU (+3.5/-110) at USC (-3.5/-110): The most bizarre part about this game, other than the fact that USC only opened as a 4.5 point favorite, is that it’s now 3.5! Not only are the oddsmakers bearish on USC, early bettors are as well. Look, as much as I love the Cougs, it feels like they’re walking into an ambush. They could very well leave with a win, but I don’t think they will.

The Pick: $110 on Tommy and Traveler

Arizona (-6.5/-110) at OSU (+6.5/-110): I mean, what exactly has Arizona done to merit the nod as a touchdown favorite over any Power Five team? Or Oregon State? And it’s a road game no less. Hard to tell if OSU is any good or just really good at sort of staying close. After all, they were getting curb-stomped by a bad Nevada team for a good bit of the game. I don’t think the Beavers are good. I know the Wildcats are bad. In that case, give me that (almost) touchdown.

The Pick: $110 on OSU

Stanford (-2/-110) at Oregon (+2/-110): This is another Rubicon situation as Oregon opened as a slight favorite, only for bettors to pounce. I want to take the Ducks, but they haven’t been tested at all, while Stanford has played a conference game and a tough MWC opponent. They also get Bryce Love back, which will hopefully de-constipate the offense.

The Pick: $110 on the Cardinal

ASU (+17/-110) at Washington (-17/-110): Herm and the Devils came crashing back to earth last week, partially courtesy of the first ever game-winning targeting penalty. The only reason for pause here is Jake Browning’s amazing terribleness. Still, Washington’s defense is borderline illegal, and not in the same way Ole Miss’s defense is illegal.

The Pick: $110 on Washington

Georgia (-14/-110) at Missouri (+14/-110): Georgia has reached the rare air inhabited only by Alabama: Georgia minus anything until proven otherwise.

The Pick: $110 on those hairy Dawgs

Kansas (+7.5/-110) at Baylor (-7.5/-110): So Baylor is bad, but uhh, isn’t Kansas too? They’re getting scores of pats on the back after beating /checks notes: Central Michigan and Rutgers. Granted, the Jayhawks appear to be much improved, but they’ve still won exactly one road game since Calvin Coolidge was in the White House.

The Pick: $110 on Baylor

Texas A&M (+26/-110) at Alabama (-26/-110): See: Georgia. Oh, and how hilarious is it that Ole Miss scored a 75-yard touchdown on its first play last week, only to watch the Tide score the next 62 in a row? Mercy me.

The Pick: $110 on Tua

Army (+32/-110) at Oklahoma (-32/-110): Feels like I’m getting out over my skis with this one, but I just can’t see the Sooners running up on the West Pointers. Plus, Army will try and take the air out of the ball.

The Pick: $110 on the Long Gray Line

As with last week, expect some last-minute action via Twitter because of course I can’t help myself. Then again, you probably don’t follow me on Twitter which is a good decision on your part. Hopefully those bets come just after I finished watching another Cougar win. Until next time...