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Pac-12 Football odds and picks: The Gamble-Tron, Week Two

Here’s hoping for a rebound!

NCAA Football: Alabama Football Fan Day Advertiser-USA TODAY NETWORK

Welcome to Week Two of the Gamble-Tron. Week One was, well, subpar. Why was it subpar? Well I’m terrible at this, for one. For another, it’s never the easiest thing to try and figure out how a team will play when there are zero data points to reference. Counterpoint - the lack of data points didn’t hurt some of my fellow pretend-gamblers! As I type this, there’s some dumb show on TV about Marines who do synthetic drugs, like bath salts. Maybe the Gamble-Tron could use some of those.

Why I’m a genius: O-H-I-O. 77 points??!! The Bucks, and the Gamble-Tron, kinda needed every last one since Alex Grinch’s crew surrendered 31 to the Beavs. Ohio state had a staggering 35 first downs. Even when they were trying to kill the clock, touchdowns were going on the board. We were sweating a good bit when Bowling Green took a 10-0 lead on our 30-point favorite. But then...JINKS. Voila, cover city.

How about Herm and the Devils! N’Keal Harry is a freak of nature, man. I don’t know why I didn’t pick Alabama ATS every game last year. They are almost always the easiest money on the board, even if their genius coach is a freaking baby. Oh, and I was rooting like hell for UNC down the stretch, thinking the line was 7.5. Turned out the line was 7, giving us a push. DebbieDowner.gif

Why I’m an IDIOT: Happy to call myself an idiot if it means Washington lost. BTW, Jake Browning took a crown of the helmet shot to the jaw, and was never tested for a concussion. But yeah, Mike Leach doesn’t care about his players. Speaking of Leach, he had his guys ready last Saturday. I blame him for not having the Gamble-Tron just as prepared. Bryce Love runs for 29 yards, and Stanford...wins by three TDs? Never gamble. Like ever. The worst part about USC is that they looked vulnerable, then pulled away just enough to NOT COVER GOD I HATE THAT.

Remember when Chip Kelly could coach? Ok, I’m sure he still can, but my god, it appears that Jim Mora left behind a tire fire of a roster. I’m shocked! Speaking of guys who can’t coach (and I really mean it this time) - Kevin Sumlin, come on down! Khalil Tate needs to run. Maybe you should let him, ya know, RUN.

Some smart person somewhere said the definition of insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different result. Gamble-Tron, meet Colorado State. Speaking of which, I thought Hawaii was overvalued because of their win over Colorado State. Turns out I was an idiot there, too.

Last Week: 4-8-1

Cash Balance: $7,330

Reader Results:

  • BothwaysUphill: 5-6-1 / -$160
  • Crimson&Gray5069: 3-8-1 / -$580
  • MagicCoug: 7-5-1 / $260
  • .:R: 8-2-1 (YOWZA!) / $2,590
  • stewak: 6-4-1 / $209
  • ThaiCoug: 6-6-1 / $140
  • cougbud; 6-5-1 / $50
  • cmaddex: 5-5-1 / -$50
  • Keith_Clark_: 3-7-1 / -$470
  • MyHopesareAsinine: 6-6-1 / -$60

Arizona (+4/-110) at Houston (-4/-110): Kevin Sumlin vs. his former employer. Ed Oliver vs. Khalil Tate. The City of Houston vs. any other major city for title of worst place in America (non Eastern New Mexico Division). Pac-12 team playing at 10am against a not-too-shabby Non-Power Five team is enough for me, especially when that team has a defensive tackle who crushes souls.

The Pick: $110 on those other Cougs (I think they call themselves the Coogs?)

UCLA (+29.5!!!/-110) at Oklahoma (-29.5/-110): UCLA is more than a four touchdown underdog. Let that sink in. I mean, it’s not like UCLA is some juggernaut or something, but 29.5 points? That said, Oklahoma looked gooooooood last weekend. UCLA? Well, let’s just say they, uh, looked less than good. Overreacting to opening week is always a bad move. We were born to make bad moves.

The Pick: $110 on the land grabbers

Colorado (+3.5/-110) at Nebraska (-3.5/-110): I could be wrong, but I don’t think the friends of the corn envisioned Scott Frost’s debut lasting all of one play. The funniest part is that Nebraska did everything but offer Terry Bowden a senate seat in order to get the game played on Sunday. Akron’s response? “Uh, um, hargle bargle, we’re washing our hair on Sunday, now please pass the $1.7M check okay thank you.” I bet Bill Moos believed them. Colorado looked really good last week. I don’t think they’re as good as they looked.

The Pick: $110 on Nebraska

Utah (-11.5/-110) at Northern Illinois (+11.5/-110): Take it away, Admiral Akbar!

The Pick: $110 on the REAL Huskies and another $110 on Under 48

USC (+5.5/-110) at Stanford (-5.5/-110): Man oh man, this is a tough one. USC is more talented, and seemed to get their sea legs in the second half against UNLV. Over on The Farm, KJ Costello looked much more the Heisman candidate than Bryce Love. Something tells me that this is going to come down to the final possession. Something is usually a moron, but whatever.

The Pick: $110 on USC

Cal (+3/-110) at BYU (-3/-110): Cal played three quarterbacks last week. Luckily the Cal defense shut down the Tar Heels. It’s 2018 and I can’t believe I just wrote that sentence. Where have you gone, Andy Buh? I’m torn as to whether BYU’s dominance of Arizona was due more to the Wildcats’ ineptitude or BYU’s effectiveness. I can’t trust the team that is actively trying to steal #GoCougs just yet. Or ever for that matter.

The Pick: $110 on Cal

Michigan State (-6.5/-110) at ASU (+6.5/-110): Sparty looked pretty below average in the opener. ASU looked really good. So naturally, the line is...Sparty by a touchdown? This feels like a “somebody somewhere knows something” line. And while I am inclined to trust that somebody, I feel like ASU has the weapons to at least keep this one within a score.

The Pick: Herman’s Big Adventure for another $110

San Jose St (+34/-110) at WSU (-34/-110): That uniform combo gives me some pause. Oh well. God dammit all.

The Pick: $110 on the Cougs

Liberty (+8.5/-110) at Army (-8.5/-110): Army represents much of what is right about this country. Liberty hired the guy who was running Baylor’s athletic department a couple years ago. Pretty sure you know what was going on at Baylor under his watch. This line opened at 11, and has sunk below one of the many gambling Rubicons, so I’m going the other way. You need to know that it takes everything I have to bet against a team whose quarterback is nicknamed Buckshot.

The Pick: $110 on the Black Knights

Mississippi State (-8/-110) at Kansas State (+8/-110): Hang on, Bill Snyder is getting almost double digits? At home? LOCK CITY! Let’s dig a bit deeper. Everybody knows KSU is traditionally a good play in this spot, and yet the opening line has gone from 7.5 to as high as nine. Mississippi State gets Nick Fitzgerald back this week, while Kansas State barely escaped an FCS team in the opener. All hail, Joe Moorhead.

The Pick: $110 on StarkVegas

Arkansas State (+36.5/-110) at Alabama (-36.5/-110): I haven’t done any research (yeah, I know you’re stunned), but it seems like the Tide almost never covers a huge spread against a cupcake opponent. Of course, previous iterations of Alabama didn’t include Tua Alphabetsoup. Either way...

The Pick: $110 on the Indians Red Wolves what even is a red wolf pretty sure they don’t exist.

Rice (+17/-110) at Hawaii (-17/-110): Probably a week late to the Rainbow bandwagon but whatever. They seem like a cool team, and owls aren’t good at flying long distances.

The Pick: $110 on the ‘Bows

What say you?