Shortly after Mike Leach arrived at WSU in 2012, I heard a rumor that he had been seen rollerblading around the streets of Pullman. The thought of it made me smile, but I assumed it was another Leachian legend until Ashley Adamson asked him about it last year at Pac-12 media day and his love of rollerblading was confirmed.
Leach talked about how he not only prefers it to jogging, but he also likes to go fast, saying “I don’t know what my top speed is. Fast enough you don’t want to fall down, I know that.” I think it unlikely there are any other coaches who would go on record that they not only prefer rollerblading to jogging for exercise, but that they also like to go fast while doing it.
One of the reasons I love that Leach is our coach is he takes the same approach to being aggressive on the field that he does to rollerblading. Since he arrived at WSU in 2012, the Cougs are 6th in the country in how often they go for it on 4th down, hereafter referred to as “#NeverKick %”. If you’re unfamiliar with the stat, it’s probably because I made it up. #NeverKick % is simply: on what percentage of fourth downs does a team go for it vs kicking a field goal or punting?
The four years prior to Leach’s arrival, WSU ranked 75th, bottoming out in 2009 when they punted or kicked on 87% of their 4th downs. Coming out of 2017 I was a little nervous Leach was trending back toward Wulffian levels of conservatism on 4th down. He had taken WSU to the #NeverKick % national title in 2014 and kept them in the top 5 nationally until a big drop in 2017 to 79th, only going for it on 17% of 4th downs.
The below chart looks at the majestic rebound of WSU from that low place of 2017 back to 11th nationally in 2018, where they went for it 30% of the time on 4th down. You can filter conferences, seasons and highlight teams. Hover over a logo and you’ll get more detail about how they approached 4th downs.
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A big reason for the rebound? Is that Gardner Minshew’s music? Why yes, yes it is. The Cougs posted their best 4th down conversion % under Leach last season, converting 69% of their attempts. The closest they’d gotten to that mark was in 2015 when they converted 66% of the time, primarily via Luke Falk as he threw 26 times on 4th down (most pass attempts on 4th down in any season by a QB going back to 2014). The data shows that Leach really trusted Connor Halliday and Falk on 4th down, but his confidence in the Cougar offense started to wane in the 2017 season. In Leach’s tenure WSU has averaged 30 4th attempts per season, peaking in 2014 and 2015 when they went for it 40 and 39 times respectively. In 2017 WSU only went for it 18 times on 4th down.
The below chart looks at 4th down passing attempts and 4th down conversion % via passing going back to 2014. Minshew matched 2015 Falk in conversion %, but did it on 13 less attempts — further proof that sophomore Luke Falk was a football-slinging gawd. Minshew also posted the best QB rating on 4th down for WSU QBs during that time span.
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When Leach trusts his QB, he’ll be pretty aggressive. And while it was frustrating to see that confidence drop in 2017 (due to Falk probably battling injury and Tyler Hilinski being a freshman), it was at the very least fun to see WSU return to its more aggressive ways on 4th down last season. For what it’s worth, Eastern Washington went for it on 4th down 26 times in 2018 (14th in FCS), and while transfer Gage Gubrud sat out a lot last season due to injury, he should be no stranger to an aggressive offense. I’m interested in seeing if WSU can edge back into the top 10 nationally and at the very least knock Oregon State off as Pac-12 #NeverKick % champions in 2018.